colonel717 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z Nam trended colder west of the apps. The 0 C line doesn't get north of the mason Dixon line in western PA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS @42 Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks about 2-6 inches for WPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I still don't like how close that 0C line is to us. I hate to continue to be negative but I just have a bad feeling about this system not panning out for us. I feel like I'm going to be disappointed, just like how I was with today's "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I still don't like how close that 0C line is to us. I hate to continue to be negative but I just have a bad feeling about this system not panning out for us. I feel like I'm going to be disappointed, just like how I was with today's "storm" Yeah, thats kinda what my previous post was getting at. ( apologies for the sloppy writing ) With these borderline temp storms, I draw a line starting at the PA/OH border, along US 422 SE to US 119, then along 119 S to the WV line. Everywhere south and west of those two lines will likely see rain at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, thats kinda what my previous post was getting at. ( apologies for the sloppy writing ) With these borderline temp storms, I draw a line starting at the PA/OH border, along US 422 SE to US 119, then along 119 S to the WV line. Everywhere south and west of those two lines will likely see rain at some point. This is looking good. Especially hours 36-48. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think for me it's all going to depend on how quickly the slop and rain changes back to snow on Wednesday. I'm sure I'll start out as snow for probably a half hour and then the warm tongue will quickly change things over. I won't see any good accumulation until Wednesday afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS and NAM suggest PIT should receive snow until mid-late afternoon on Wednesday, then PIT probably goes over to sleet/ZR. Can't do much about the warm air advection going on above 850 mb. A caveat is that strong upward vertical motion could offset/overwhelm the warm air advection and perhaps yield a later changeover time. If the 0z GFS is right, UVM is weak after 18z Wed. and so 850-700 mb temps should rise without much trouble due to the WAA present. If the 0z NAM is right, UVM is stronger Wed. afternoon and thus 850-700 mb temps may be held down enough to prolong the snow at PIT. Viewed some soundings from the 0z GFS and NAM -- looks like a classic case of the warm layer showing up above 850 mb -- typically a sleet profile. The soundings highlight the importance of viewing more than one level/layer in the atmosphere -- in this case, the 850 mb 0C line provides hints of the lower tropospheric temperature profile but not the whole story. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Here's to a nice thump Wednesday morning and early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Unless my eyes deceive me the latest euro run has us all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Bringing my map over from the C-PA thread. Euro does keep you guys snow as it has for most of the last few runs. Compromising with what the 0z GFS and NAM had though leads me to continue to expect some mixing in the Pittsburgh area and for the usual SW PA hole. However, I didn't leave my 6 inch line too far from town and I certainly could see ending up having more snow into SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS and NAM suggest PIT should receive snow until mid-late afternoon on Wednesday, then PIT probably goes over to sleet/ZR. Can't do much about the warm air advection going on above 850 mb. A caveat is that strong upward vertical motion could offset/overwhelm the warm air advection and perhaps yield a later changeover time. If the 0z GFS is right, UVM is weak after 18z Wed. and so 850-700 mb temps should rise without much trouble due to the WAA present. If the 0z NAM is right, UVM is stronger Wed. afternoon and thus 850-700 mb temps may be held down enough to prolong the snow at PIT. Viewed some soundings from the 0z GFS and NAM -- looks like a classic case of the warm layer showing up above 850 mb -- typically a sleet profile. The soundings highlight the importance of viewing more than one level/layer in the atmosphere -- in this case, the 850 mb 0C line provides hints of the lower tropospheric temperature profile but not the whole story. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Here's to a nice thump Wednesday morning and early afternoon Merry Christmas Everyone! I know your post was made prior to the 6z runs but both the NAM and GFS look to keep us colder and seem to have a faster transfer which should be helpful to us. I am feeling a bit more optimistic (of at least some sort of frozen be it sleet, zr or snow will prevail over plain rain) that we will see less of that SWPA screw zone effect with this storm, especially if we get the favorable track the 6z GFS / NAM show. The 700 low is pretty close to us though... Hopefully the UVM will be more robust as you discuss on the NAM and overwhelm the WAA during the high qpf frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CMC has us all snow and very heavy http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12Z GFS all snow for KPIT about .9 liquid. For those of us in southern agc, will be nowcasting for mix.. Even if all models show no warm tongue to us, I won't be confident until the low gets east of us. Also looking at another 2-4 inches for 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The boys up in Moon decide to post the WSWarning for Pgh. I think they would have prefered to wait even longer, but doing so would have reflected a bit unfavorably on them. Although they do have a general 3-8" accum range to allow some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Also, I belive the NWS is considering the effects of driving through Allegheny county in 1- 2" per hr snowfall rates. The person working a 7-7 12hr shift, probably isn't gonna experience the same conditions as the delivery driver traveling from the airport to oakland in the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still looks to me like there's going to be a wide range of amounts in our area from south to north. Northern Allegheny County and north may see 8 or 10 inches. Southern Allegheny may see half that. Even less in Washington County. I'm still concerned about the warm tongue though cutting amounts down some, especially in my neck of the woods and south. My current NWS forecast is for 3 to 7 and they're currently saying all snow. Wouldn't surprise me if I still at least see some mixing initially based on past history of these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still looks to me like there's going to be a wide range of amounts in our area from south to north. Northern Allegheny County and north may see 8 or 10 inches. Southern Allegheny may see half that. Even less in Washington County. I'm still concerned about the warm tongue though cutting amounts down some, especially in my neck of the woods and south. My current NWS forecast is for 3 to 7 and they're currently saying all snow. Wouldn't surprise me if I still at least see some mixing initially based on past history of these types of storms. What's interesting is that TWC local forecast is going hard with the WAA, forecasting mostly ZR and RN. Also no scrolling info at the bottom of the TV, backing up the WSWarning from the NWS. This tells me TWC doesn't agree with the NWS forecast. So IMHO, TWC is saying we'll acknowledge the WSW, but that's about it, we're doin' our own thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Too bad :-(.....I was looking forward to a few inches of the white stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Too bad :-(.....I was looking forward to a few inches of the white stuff!! LoL, that was just my own obs between TWC and the NWS. 3-8" still seems the general consensus. To be honest, the H7 dryslot may be a bigger player than the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd much prefer the dry slot than slop...haha-Merry Christmas everybody!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am driving up to Wellsville, NY tomorrow and they are expecting 8-16 inches.I hope you guys down here get all snow and no mixing. I will be checking in on here to see how the Pittsburgh area is doing. I will put some updates on here from my location as well if anyone cares. I won't rub it in. Is it possible to send pictures via your phone onto this board or do they have to be from a computer? I will probably only be using my phone for posting and pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hey enjoy it North!....safe travels your way too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am driving up to Wellsville, NY tomorrow and they are expecting 8-16 inches.I hope you guys down here get all snow and no mixing. I will be checking in on here to see how the Pittsburgh area is doing. I will put some updates on here from my location as well if anyone cares. I won't rub it in. Is it possible to send pictures via your phone onto this board or do they have to be from a computer? I will probably only be using my phone for posting and pictures. Sure, give us some updates when you can. I'll just be mad at you if you see a foot and I see 2 inches! lol I've posted pictures on here before through tapatalk. I don't know if you have that on your phone or not. I have an android phone so I downloaded it from the market. That's what I use to post on here when I'm not home, which a lot of the time I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 One more interesting thought on this storm, is along with the speed of a secondary development, how far south and west does it develop. Because if close enough, and strong enough, the secondary could possibly prolong the steady snow Wed night, with the ULL progged to be decently neg. tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 One more interesting thought on this storm, is along with the speed of a secondary development, how far south and west does it develop. Because if close enough, and strong enough, the secondary could possibly prolong the steady snow Wed night, with the ULL progged to be decently neg. tilted. Yep, was thinking the same thing. That is our perfect set up for a huge storm...I think Feb 2010 basically did that. We got the front end snows from the primary, and it transferred right at the perfect time for us to stay in the deform band for hours with the secondary. That actually looks to happen in OH this time, as I think someone there may see 20 inches out towards Columbus, and we will probably get dry slotted, but I feel pretty good that Metro sees 6-9 inches, more north and west. Also, if you remember that storm, most of our snow came between about 5PM and 7AM, in a 14 hour period...very intense snow rates in that one, which I believe we could match here but for a shorter time period. BTW, I purposely stayed at my folks house tonight...didn't feel like dealing with Emsworth and being right next to the river. Being in West View, even only a couple 100 feet up makes a huge difference, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NWS is basically only calling for 2-4 in my area today while I noticed that Cranberry, just north of the county border, is calling for 6-12 total. Like I said, wide range of amounts. The mixing will probably get to me at some point which will cut my totals down a good bit. Plus, the possibly of being dry slotted is there as well. Same old same old for me, if it turns out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NWS is basically only calling for 2-4 in my area today while I noticed that Cranberry, just north of the county border, is calling for 6-12 total. Like I said, wide range of amounts. The mixing will probably get to me at some point which will cut my totals down a good bit. Plus, the possibly of being dry slotted is there as well. Same old same old for me, if it turns out this way. That warm tongue is already getting very close. Not like our prospects in BP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 From a couple of things I have read.....Butler and Indiana both being mentioned and only one road in common for them....it seems like 422 is going to be a dividing line for one of those ranges. Hoping for the 4-8 or more that NWS has us in up here in Armstrong.......although maybe going into work down in Westmoreland for a little bit this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Light sleet and freezing rain in Canonsburg...def going to fall on the low side of snow totals if this is how we're beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Light sleet and freezing rain in Canonsburg...def going to fall on the low side of snow totals if this is how we're beginning. All models show initially that the 850 line is right over us as the precip starts, but then it crashes south once precip starts to fall. I feel you should go over to snow shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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