RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Reduced 20% This snow map is a perfect example of the typcial outcome for SWPA. Warm tonge extends do about I80. Looks like GFS has caved to the Euro, no surpise there. I agree with the analysis, if we can get a slightly earlier transfer we should be a good. A stronger high pressure to the North should help establish cold air and force an earlier transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This snow map is a perfect example of the typcial outcome for SWPA. Warm tonge extends do about I80. Looks like GFS has caved to the Euro, no surpise there. I agree with the analysis, if we can get a slightly earlier transfer we should be a good. A stronger high pressure to the North should help establish cold air and force an earlier transfer. Yeah, we see it all the time. And a lot of the time, the models end up underdoing that "warm tongue". The warm air ends up hitting us sooner than expected which cuts our totals down substantially, especially where I'm at. I get snow for about an hour and then the slop begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro still apparantly still giving us in excess of 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro still apparantly still giving us in excess of 10" It's funny how you root for a storm like this all year and the day it's supposed to come you have to travel in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's funny how you root for a storm like this all year and the day it's supposed to come you have to travel in it. yeah that usually takes the fun out of it real quick...good luck to you and keep safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY INDICATES A DEEP TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. THIS CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND HOW A WARM WEDGE WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND AROUND THE LOW. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE COLDER ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGES TO THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW INTO WESTERN PA. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW WARM AIR WRAPS INTO THE LOW...AS THIS WILL DRIVE THE PRECIP TYPE. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE WARM 850MB WEDGE OF AIR ADVECTING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE PITTSBURGH METRO BEING RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH...A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN TO THE SOUTH...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INITIAL SHOT OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF THIS SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 6 INCHES LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM WEDGE...DRY SLOT...AND POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT SHOULD HOWEVER BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION THAT COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH CAA ENSUING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPS...HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION. WAA DEPENDENT ON THE LOW COULD BRING TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH...WITH NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE LOW...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Both the 6z NAM and GFS are an improvement in my eyes. Looking at the Cobb Data they are both spitting out about 8-10 inches with some mixing. I would take that in a heartbeat. I would still feel better if this all shifted SE another 50-75 miles though just to keep the warm tongue at bay. I just can't trust a model showing the freezing line right over Pittsburgh in this type of setup. One good thing in my opinion is both models show us getting the majority of our snow pretty quickly so that lends more confidence to the idea since hopefully we can get our high qpf in while its cold enough for snow. If it warms over 0 in any of the layers while we are in a dry slot or low qpf I don't think anyone will have much to be upset about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Im still holding out hope!.....lets see what things say by tonight....maybe it trend a little more east!! yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Both the 0600 GFS & NAM for 12-24 have us getting 9-10 inches of snow here in PGH on Dec26-27!! Keeping fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Im still holding out hope!.....lets see what things say by tonight....maybe it trend a little more east!! yes! As we both know very well, We're in that tricky area around Bethel Park where the warm air invades very quickly with these types of systems. We've seen many storms here in Bethel where we start out briefly as snow and then quickly changeover to slop and rain, while folks north of Pittsburgh get a much more prolonged period of snow. I don't know if that's going to happen here, but I just get that funny feeling that it will just based on past storms like this one. I think there's going to be a wide range of snowfall totals between northern and southern Allegheny County. It we can somehow get the transfer to happen sooner, that would make a big difference. Right now, it's very close for us in southern Allegheny county and to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 starting last night and this morning...models trending back to the original solution...hoping that trend continues...I dispise the warm tongue nightmare after Christmas!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 As we both know very well, You and I are in that tricky area where the warm air invades very quickly with these types of systems. We've seen many storms here in Bethel where we start out briefly as snow and then quickly changeover to slop and rain, while folks north of Pittsburgh get a much more prolonged period of snow. I don't know if that's going to happen here, but I just get that funny feeling that it will just based on past storms like this one. I think there's going to be a wide range of snowfall totals between northern and southern Allegheny County. It we can somehow get the transfer to happen sooner, that would make a big difference. Right now, it's very close for us in southern Allegheny county. I know I am right on Peters border and I am expecting to get the warm tongue of death. Rarely when they project it to stay south of I-70 does that come to fruition. Ii inevitably makes it at least to Bethel Park, and I fully expect that for this storm. Clown map...Snow depth at hour 84 Reduced: 41% of original size [ 1400 x 1000 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 As we both know very well, We're in that tricky area around Bethel Park where the warm air invades very quickly with these types of systems. We've seen many storms here in Bethel where we start out briefly as snow and then quickly changeover to slop and rain, while folks north of Pittsburgh get a much more prolonged period of snow. I don't know if that's going to happen here, but I just get that funny feeling that it will just based on past storms like this one. I think there's going to be a wide range of snowfall totals between northern and southern Allegheny County. It we can somehow get the transfer to happen sooner, that would make a big difference. Right now, it's very close for us in southern Allegheny county and to our south. I went to school at SRU, and I always thought while I was up there, that I was going to get in on all snow events that mixed in Pittsburgh. I was always amazed that these types of storms, even up there, mixed, even when KPIT was calling for all snow in Pittsburgh. At the very least, the front end thump looks to be intense, and that should be a good 4-6 hour window of heavy snow. Based on the GFS and NAM, in that scenario even if we do change over we could still be looking at a very quick 4-8 inches. If the Euro scenario holds, we get over 10 inches possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I hope you guys get all snow. I hope it starts a little later than daybreak Wednesday. I am driving up to the 20 inch + clown map area on Wednesday so I will be glad when I get there. I may have to move my departure time up even more on Wednesday morning to like 6:00 am. Hope to be driving just ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I went to school at SRU, and I always thought while I was up there, that I was going to get in on all snow events that mixed in Pittsburgh. I was always amazed that these types of storms, even up there, mixed, even when KPIT was calling for all snow in Pittsburgh. At the very least, the front end thump looks to be intense, and that should be a good 4-6 hour window of heavy snow. Based on the GFS and NAM, in that scenario even if we do change over we could still be looking at a very quick 4-8 inches. If the Euro scenario holds, we get over 10 inches possibly. Front end thump does look impressive on the NAM, granted its pretty far out for the NAM. The NAM track is pretty ideal for us. 121226/1900Z 55 08016KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 121226/2000Z 56 08018KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.222 12:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 121226/2100Z 57 09015KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172 11:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0 121226/2200Z 58 09013KT 28.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 11:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0 121226/2300Z 59 09015KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.203 11:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0 121227/0000Z 60 09017KT 27.8F SNOW 5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 10:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Front end thump does look impressive on the NAM, granted its pretty far out for the NAM. The NAM track is pretty ideal for us. 121226/1900Z 55 08016KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 121226/2000Z 56 08018KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.222 12:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 121226/2100Z 57 09015KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172 11:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0 121226/2200Z 58 09013KT 28.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 11:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0 121226/2300Z 59 09015KT 27.9F SNOW 12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.203 11:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0 121227/0000Z 60 09017KT 27.8F SNOW 5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 10:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 I usually just cut the NAM totals in half, especially when they're this far out. The NAM almost always overdoes QPF. It would sure be nice if this was the rare instance that it'd be right. That's a very nice front end thump for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I usually just cut the NAM totals in half, especially when they're this far out. The NAM almost always overdoes QPF. It would sure be nice if this was the rare instance that it'd be right. That's a very nice front end thump for sure. Right - but QPF wise it's not much different than the GFS or Euro. It's mostly a P-type issue. So hopefully if it's getting the type correct, the actual total precip falls in line with model consensus (which has generally been 1.0 to 1.4) Like everone else, I'd feel a lot better however if the the GFS depicted the 850 0 line about 50 to 75 miles further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 After a quick look at the soundings the 12z nam and gfs now have us over 1.0 qpf all snow, although not sure id trust the gfs as much. There would almost certainly be mixing if not even a period of rain, but trends appear to be in our favor attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 PIT: CODE ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT LAT= 40.50 LON= -80.22 ELE= 1224 12Z DEC24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 24-DEC -3.3 0.9 1016 84 20 0.00 551 538 MON 18Z 24-DEC 5.1 0.2 1011 61 93 0.00 549 540 TUE 00Z 25-DEC 1.5 -0.2 1010 97 57 0.06 548 540 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 1.8 -3.9 1014 98 9 0.01 547 536 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 0.4 -5.0 1020 94 10 0.00 550 535 TUE 18Z 25-DEC 1.3 -5.6 1023 66 10 0.00 554 536 WED 00Z 26-DEC 0.7 -4.7 1024 76 8 0.00 557 537 WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.3 -2.0 1024 74 16 0.00 556 537 WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.5 -1.5 1019 71 96 0.01 555 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -4.4 1011 87 99 0.46 551 542 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.3 -2.7 1006 85 98 0.24 544 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.3 -4.7 1005 93 77 0.11 542 538 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.6 -6.9 1009 92 89 0.03 542 535 THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.3 -9.3 1014 76 66 0.01 547 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -2.5 -8.8 1018 87 34 0.01 551 536 FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.7 -6.6 1019 93 6 0.01 553 538 FRI 12Z 28-DEC -3.1 -4.3 1021 94 16 0.01 554 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro cuts qpf just a tad but gives a little more room with the 850's this run. That now gives us the nam, gfs and euro showing all snow and .8-1.2 qpf. Almost there folks, just a little more work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice. Its snowing now in Bethel Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seems like most mets around the area are calling for little to no accumulation. I want to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seems like most mets around the area are calling for little to no accumulation. I want to believe Today, or for the next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Next storm Then they are totally out to lunch. Doesn't surprise me. I lost all respect for the local mets after the FEB 2010 event where as the storm was starting, they were calling 3-6 inches, and there was already that much on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Without a dominant cold high, climo is the safe bet for Wednesdays storm forecast for Pgh metro. So with the likely setup, climo would suggest a quick changeover to rain. With no strong driving force in either direction, I tend to favor climo over models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Check out this radar loop for Christmas Eve in Pittsburgh. Rain. Northwest, North and East. Snow. HaHa! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USPA1290&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 425 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073-WVZ001-250530-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.121226T0300Z-121227T1100Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE... CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY... ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG... FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON... JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...WEIRTON 425 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Check out this radar loop for Christmas Eve in Pittsburgh. Rain. Northwest, North and East. Snow. HaHa! http://www.intellica...90&animate=true the pitt screw zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Kpit back to their forecast of a few days of all snow and a high of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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