Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather

[Paweatherguy1]

While I would like to see a bit more discussion on it, neither event is a lock at this point. The Christmas Eve / Day storm is not yet resolved and that is going to have an impact on the track of the Post Christmas storm. CTP can probably be a bit more confident because the models are also showing a strong CAD signal, which we do not benefit from. If the Christmas storm keeps trending stronger we could easily see rain, and if the post Christmas storm fails to transfer at a lower lattitude we will get the warm tongue and end up with slop to which we are all to familiar. I expect after todays 12z runs kpit will likely enhance the discussion.

Lets not turn this into a NWS service bash. If they keep downplaying over the next few days while models show significant snow events then it may warrant some discussion but at this point I feel just the mention of snow is reasonable.

I understand...but CTP gave a very detailed discussion of the same events, in the same time frame. Tell us why it may or may not happen like they did...the XMAS eve storm is only 3 days away, and after XMAS is only 4 or 5 days away.

I'm sorry, it is their job to analyze the different possibilities and put out a discussion product that explains it....not just to say "the models are showing this." I can do that.

[Paweatherguy1]

12z GFS is a disaster for us on both storms. Looks like rain mostly.

[Burghblizz]

If someone can find commentary by a met on the board saying we need to "throw the 12Z GFS out", let us know!

[colonel717]

12z GFS is a disaster for us on both storms. Looks like rain mostly.

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[RitualOfTheTrout]

12z GFS is a disaster for us on both storms. Looks like rain mostly.

Sounds like the Euro is pretty bad too. Next few funs will help indicate if this is a trend or a blip.

[colonel717]

_{12Z EURO pretty much in agreement with GFS. This storm certrainly isn't a disaster for WPa at this point.}

[Paweatherguy1]

_{12Z EURO pretty much in agreement with GFS. This storm certrainly isn't a disaster for WPa at this point.}

I don't know if I trust those soundings...a low cutting up towards Cleveland does not bring us snow.

[Burghblizz]

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Except that's showing mostly snow.....but like 9" falling in 3 hours

Is that the current run?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I don't know if I trust those soundings...a low cutting up towards Cleveland does not bring us snow.

I agree, Primary holds on way to long. That would be at best cast scenario possibly a brief onset of frozen, to rain, then some back end frozen. As we all know with those the majority of qpf is liquid. My conern now is this a trend back to the cutters we saw modeled before, or just a blip.

[colonel717]

EURO still shows us wth 6+.

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[RitualOfTheTrout]

interesting snowfall map from the Euro. 18Z GFS looks even worse than 12z lol. Well we shall see. NWS last discussion still mentions mainly snow as well. Hopefully we see a jump back to previous solutions on tonights 0z runs.

[blackngoldrules]

interesting snowfall map from the Euro. 18Z GFS looks even worse than 12z lol. Well we shall see. NWS last discussion still mentions mainly snow as well. Hopefully we see a jump back to previous solutions on tonights 0z runs.

At least we've actually had something to talk about for a change, even if it ends up being another one of our infamous slopstorms. Lol

[Paweatherguy1]

At this point, I don't care what any soundings say. We are torched right now on xmas and after it....I don't see any feasible way to get snow here with lows cutting to Cleveland.

[MAG5035]

0z Euro gives Pit about 0.7 to 0.8" all snow this go around.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

0z Euro gives Pit about 0.7 to 0.8" all snow this go around.

Thanks for the update Mag. If you get a chance while you are discussing thr Euro output / qpf numbers if you could discuss Pitt as well either here or even just in the Central PA thread (I think most of us lurk there pretty regularly anyways) that would be much appreciated!

If its Euro vs GFS at this time range I know who I'd rather have showing a favorable situation.

[colonel717]

Play by play of EURO from facebook WXRisk

Wxrisk.com By 12/26 7am the primary or main LOW w is centered over are very close to Nashville or perhaps a Bowling Green and South Central Kentucky. There is s a lot of snow falling over Western Kentucky even over Memphis Tennessee into Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana and central and Southern Ohio... The southern half a West Virginia is rain the northern half of snow and snow was falling over the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley up into Hagerstown Maryland. Ice appears to be the main precipitation type over the lower portions of the Shenandoah Valley and over the Virginia Piedmont

Wxrisk.com BY 1PM 12/26 the secondaryLow is beginning to develop near Roanoke Virginia or perhaps near Winston Salem North Carolina. The primaries low is beginning to die over far eastern KY. Heavy snow was falling over southeastern ILL most of Indiana Ohio Southern and Central Kentucky.... All of western and Central Pennsylvania all of Western Maryland .

The Shenandoah Valley appears to be ice still specially over the northern half of it where it still appears to be snowing over Winchester and Harrisonburg and Hagerstown. Any ice over the VA Piedmont has now gone over to rain... It is snowing over much of Eastern Pennsylvania including Philly and mixed precip over DCA BWI. The lower Maryland Eastern shore and Southeast Virginia is MILD with rain.

Wxrisk.com 7PM 12/26 ... A secondary low was taken over and is now located close to either Fredericksburg Virginia or Patuxent River Maryland. The rain snow line is reach New York City and all of Philadelphia southeastern Pennsylvania all of central and Southern New Jersey and all of central and Eastern Virginia as well as all of central and Eastern Maryland is rain. The precipitation has ended over southwestern Virginia and Western North Carolina... Snow was still falling over Indiana Ohio Eastern Kentucky all of western and central PA and all of southwestern... Central East Central New York State. Snow is beginning to move into Western New England and along the Connecticut Coast... Which should quickly change to rain

Wxrisk.com BY 1AM 12/27 the main low is located over central or Southern New Jersey... The rain snow line is move north of New York City probably up to Poughkeepsie and north of the ct-mass State line and probably into Boston. Except for the far southeast portions most of New York State is seeing heavy snow as is most of western and north central Pennsylvania and all of the interior of New England.

BY 7AM 12/27 the Low is located over New York City or Connecticut... The the the major snowstorm over all of central and Northern New England up towards Montreal all of New York State except for the southeast corner and still over north central and northeastern Pennsylvania.

The European total snowfall map is about the same as what we saw this morning. Is still has a band of 4 to 8 inches of snow over central and northern Shenandoah up towards Hagerstown and then into reading and Allentown Pennsylvania... Then into Northwest Connecticut and as far east as Worcester Mass.... Large portions of Southern Indiana most of OH into all of western and Central Pennsylvania and most of New York State is in the 8-16" band .

[SteelCity08]

CODE

WED 00Z 26-DEC 0.8 -1.3 1024 81 17 0.00 557 539

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -0.9 1021 79 57 0.00 556 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.1 -1.1 1016 88 100 0.17 555 542

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.3 -3.5 1007 91 93 0.59 550 544

THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.7 0.0 1000 91 99 0.15 541 541

THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.1 -4.6 1002 95 99 0.21 538 536

THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.8 -9.3 1011 87 97 0.08 541 532

THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.3 -9.4 1016 74 32 0.02 547 535

FRI 00Z 28-DEC -2.9 -9.0 1021 85 14 0.01 550 534

FRI 06Z 28-DEC -6.5 -4.9 1023 91 11 0.00 552 534

FRI 12Z 28-DEC -7.8 -4.1 1025 92 34 0.00 555 535

12z Euro soundings for KPIT.. Holding stong.

[colonel717]

Steel City, not familiar with reading those soundings, what do the numbers mean. THanks.

[colonel717]

Columbus meteorologist Eric Elwell posted the 12z Euro snowfall map on his FB page:

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[whamcity]

Looks too good to be true

[blackngoldrules]

Columbus meteorologist Eric Elwell posted the 12z Euro snowfall map on his FB page:

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Does that put us in the 8 to 12 range? Go Euro!

[blackngoldrules]

I was just looking through all of the models and it seems like things are pretty well split. Euro, NOGAPS, and Canadian are big hits for us. GFS, NAM, and SREFS not so much. NWS seems to be leaning toward the GFS solution giving us a mixed bag on Wednesday. If GFS wins, then I think we end up with very little snowfall. Mixed bag ending as snow or snow showers won't give us a whole lot obviously. We've seen that scenario many many times in this area.

[Paweatherguy1]

I was just looking through all of the models and it seems like things are pretty well split. Euro, NOGAPS, and Canadian are big hits for us. GFS, NAM, and SREFS not so much. NWS seems to be leaning toward the GFS solution giving us a mixed bag on Wednesday. If GFS wins, then I think we end up with very little snowfall. Mixed bag ending as snow or snow showers won't give us a whole lot obviously. We've seen that scenario many many times in this area.

Honestly, given the GFS' track recrod, no way would I go with that over the Euro. The NAM model run was a mess, as in it made no sense, and the GFS took a primary all the way through NYC with no secondary.

I am thinking that we do OK actually.

[SteelCity08]

Big improvements on the 00z gfs. The track is almost right where we want it, just need that transfer to start a little earlier and were in business.

[Paweatherguy1]

Big improvements on the 00z gfs. The track is almost right where we want it, just need that transfer to start a little earlier and were in business.

That's what I said in the Ohio thread...if the transfer starts just 6 hours earlier, we will get mostly snow and close to a foot of it. Even on this run, I would think we at least get a nice front end thump.

[colonel717]

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[SteelCity08]

Snow depth on the 00z puts us in the 1-3 range this run and right on the fringe of 3-6. Lets hope this is the beginning of a trend, god knows we could all use a little cheer after that game today.

[Paweatherguy1]

That snow map has us SOOO close. 6 hours sooner on the transfer, or 75 miles further south on the primary track, and we probably will get warning level snows.

[SteelCity08]

That's what I said in the Ohio thread...if the transfer starts just 6 hours earlier, we will get mostly snow and close to a foot of it. Even on this run, I would think we at least get a nice front end thump.

We are very close, compared to the 18z and 12z which took the low almost directly over head. Very nice to see the transfer occur over KY as opposed to SW OH. All eyes now turn to the Euro.

[Paweatherguy1]

This is hour 66...basically, we start off mixed, then go over to heavy snow for about 3-5 hours, then mix over to rain again. At the least though, we would get a decent thump with this, I'd say a good 2-4 inches, and this is a big improvement on this run. trend is looking good for us, and I am starting to feel confident in us getting at least an advisory level event.