Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I miss going out to Pittsburgh every weekend. It was so neat watching the weather change on the turnpike from Blue Mountain to Breezewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 After Christmas storm still looking positive on GFS. 72 hour snowfall at hour 168: Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (41.81K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 135 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 OHZ041-050-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>003-022- 210245- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0015.121221T0800Z-121223T0000Z/ COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK- BROOKE-OHIO-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...STEUBENVILLE... NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA... BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG... FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON... BETHANY...WHEELING...MORGANTOWN 135 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR |SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW DRIFTING OVER ROADS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT TRAVELING WILL BE INHIBITED DUE TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AND REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262- 1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Would be nice to get 4-6 this weekend. Would likely stay white for Christmas. GFS Ensembles for 26th/27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I dont believe we will get more than 2"....I hope so tho! why the sudden change?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I dont believe we will get more than 2"....I hope so tho! why the sudden change?... Being that this is an LES event, someone may get lucky and see 4 to 6, if they happen to be under some heavier bands, while most probably won't see that. I think we had this scenario a couple of times last winter where we were under an advisory for an extended period of snow showers and we ended up getting very little. You and I usually don't too well with LES, but every once in a while we get lucky. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 In agreement here Black N Gold...a few lucky folks in Metro will see the high end of 4-6" where most intense bands set up and persist...in between a general 1-3" is most likely. As we know w/LE..a range of 1-6" can and will verify across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Take a gander at the 00z GFS for next week's potential storm. It absolutely slams us. Too bad it isn't at hour 40, instead of 140. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow! New GFS has snow Christmas Eve and Christmas morning and Big snows Wed and Thursday. Of course I am going to southwest New York Wed but if the system stays intact it will follow me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Take a gander at the 00z GFS for next week's potential storm. It absolutely slams us. Too bad it isn't at hour 40, instead of 140. :snowman: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kpit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snowing here already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So far only a light dusting here in Greensburg. Snow is still expected to pick up in coverage as the afternoon progresses so I still think 1-3 is good for us folk in the low lands. GFS still has a storm for us after Christmas, and shows at least probably some flakes in there air for Christmas Day. From what I can gather on the Euro from other threads it shows something similar. One thing for sure is that we are heading towards a cold and stormy pattern so it should be fun over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So far only a light dusting here in Greensburg. Snow is still expected to pick up in coverage as the afternoon progresses so I still think 1-3 is good for us folk in the low lands. GFS still has a storm for us after Christmas, and shows at least probably some flakes in there air for Christmas Day. From what I can gather on the Euro from other threads it shows something similar. One thing for sure is that we are heading towards a cold and stormy pattern so it should be fun over the next few weeks. Trying not to get excited yet, but we seem to be in a great position for the 26-27th storm. EURO and GFS in close agreement and both have been pretty consistent with a good hit for WPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So far only a light dusting here in Greensburg. Snow is still expected to pick up in coverage as the afternoon progresses so I still think 1-3 is good for us folk in the low lands. We have a nice line of snow showers moving through Allegheny County right now. I'd say that snow is coming down at a moderate clip in the West Mifflin area where I'm at. Had a light dusting before this wave, but now it's starting to accumulate. GFS still has a storm for us after Christmas, and shows at least probably some flakes in there air for Christmas Day. From what I can gather on the Euro from other threads it shows something similar. One thing for sure is that we are heading towards a cold and stormy pattern so it should be fun over the next few weeks. The after Christmas storm doesn't look as impressive for us right now as it did yesterday (yesterday's 12z GFS vs. Today's 12z) but still a very nice hit. Plus, still a lot of time for adjustments. Hopefully, adjustments in our favor. This storm has been on the map for days now, so that's the important thing this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We have a nice line of snow showers moving through Allegheny County right now. I'd say that snow is coming down at a moderate clip in the West Mifflin area where I'm at. Had a light dusting before this wave, but now it's starting to accumulate. The after Christmas storm doesn't look as impressive for us right now as it did yesterday (yesterday's 12z GFS vs. Today's 12z) but still a very nice hit. Plus, still a lot of time for adjustments. Hopefully, adjustments in our favor. This storm has been on the map for days now, so that's the important thing this far out. The thing I liked about both the GFS and EURO was they were both showing different solutions, and both of those solutions were a nice hit for us. Euro now has a transfer like the GFS, but at least we don't have to rely on only 1 solution to give us some decent snow. I always have the fear, especially for Bethel Park of the warm tongue of death but can worry about that down the line. If you look at the GFS Ensemble members, everyone gives us at least a couple of inches. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf180.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS CMC/GEM AND HPC-PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...CHRISTMAS DAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. BLEND OF GFS AND HPC-PREFERRED COLDER ECMWF MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE STRADDLING THE FREEZING POINT MOST DAYS...SO MENTIONED BOTH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REALIZE OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE. -- End Changed Discussion -- This is surprising given what the models are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion -- PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS CMC/GEM AND HPC-PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...CHRISTMAS DAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. BLEND OF GFS AND HPC-PREFERRED COLDER ECMWF MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE STRADDLING THE FREEZING POINT MOST DAYS...SO MENTIONED BOTH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REALIZE OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE. -- End Changed Discussion -- This is surprising given what the models are showing... Maybe they're just saying that because we're still 5 days out and a lot can still change? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not too impressed so far....maybe well wake up to a surprise...for some reason everything out west dries out before it gets here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hard to measure w/drifting... but I'd estimate 1.5 to 2" so far in Canonsburg with another nice band setting up overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has an XMAS miracle for us! About 2-4 inches of snow! Awesome...that would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has an XMAS miracle for us! About 2-4 inches of snow! Awesome...that would be perfect. It slams us again 2 days later too. Could be a pretty active week for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Starting to come down pretty good again. I say we're at about 3" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ahhhh les you will be the death of me.. I'm going to have nightmares of that green blob dissipating over my head for days to come. Hopefully next week will ease the stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Starting to come down pretty good again. I say we're at about 3" for the day. Washington and Fayette counties are getting hit pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has an XMAS miracle for us! About 2-4 inches of snow! Awesome...that would be perfect. Then some more chances on the 30th and 2nd. Could be a good next 10 days for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Best snow potential since February 2010 in the next couple weeks, or have I been sipping too much eggnog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 It slams us again 2 days later too. Could be a pretty active week for us. I am heading up to Southwest NY on wed the 26th so I am sure we will get hit hard since I am leaving. I will be getting snow most likely too but I hope I don't have to drive in it. It looks to be more lake effect for me as well after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS looks OK for the Xmas storm. Thinking we could have mixing issues on that day, however, if we can get a couple of inches before changing over, or even just an inch, I will be more than happy, especially if itcomes Xmas eve night into Xmas morning. The next storm destroys us on this run. Verbatim, with a 10:1 ration, we would get about 10-12 inches of snow, but likely, temps would be tanking, and we could be looking at 15 or 20 to one ratios, so likely more like 12-18 showing on this run. This storm has been pretty locked in for a couple days now, and the Euro last night also showed, per the Philly thread, .75 QPF all snow in the metro. All that said, I find it inexcusable, with the holiday coming up especially, that this is the NWS discussion for that time frame. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...PER BLEND OF RECENT GFS CMC/GEM AND HPC-PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...CHRISTMAS DAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. BLEND OF GFS AND HPC-PREFERRED COLDER ECMWF MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE STRADDLING THE FREEZING POINT MOST DAYS...SO MENTIONED BOTH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REALIZE OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE. http://forecast.weat...PBZ&product=AFD I mean, let's be perfectly honest...your job as a met is to speculate. You might be wrong, but give me a discussion of the reasons it might rain, ice, snow, why a track may go one way or the other. Don't basically post verbatim what the models say, and put off any real analysis. In fact, KPIT doesn't even mention the possibility of a major winter storm...just saying that there will be wintery precip. Given the fact that we could be looking at 1-3 or 2-4 inches Xmas day, and then a day or two after a major, major storm, KPIT should really be discussing that in great detail as this would have significant impacts on holiday travel. This screams lazy to me, and truly wish that KPIT would put a little more effort some times into the mid range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 BTW, here is CTP's discussion for the same time frame...absolutely shames KPIT. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURRING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TOUGH HEADING NE FROM THE LOWER MISS...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FLEETING MORNING SUNSHINE MONDAY...WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF THICKENING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 22/00Z AND 03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE MERGING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIME AND TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008MB MEAN SFC LOW. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH WVA OR THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF THE APPALACHIANS CHRISTMAS EVE /21-00Z TUE/ THEN SCOOT NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OR ALONG THE COAST CHRISTMAS DAY. LLVL WET BULB PROFILE /AND THIS STORM TRACK/ FAVORS MAINLY SNOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS ATLEAST CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW...QPF CONSENSUS FAVORS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR LOWER SUSQ REGION...WHERE SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF ONLY 24-30 HOURS FROM LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY AND PERHAPS EVEN A CLASSIC NEGATIVE TILT...DEEP TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MIDWEST TO SERN US LATER WED INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NOSE OF A POTENT 120+ KT UPPER JET MAX ROUNDING/HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND GREATLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER UVVEL/UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS NEWD THROUGH THE NERN US. ANY INITIAL TENN VALLEY SFC LOW WILL LIKELY QUICKLY JUMP THE SMOKEY MTNS...AND REFORM/INTENSIFY ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATL COAST WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES NE. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW PLACING IS NOTED BY THE 22/00Z GEFS...00Z AND 06Z GFS...AND THE 00Z EC MODEL. THE 22/00Z CANADIAN IS JUST A SLIGHT SOUTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS...BEFORE LIFTING THE INTENSIFYING /APPROX 990MB/ SFC LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE WED NIGHT /CLOSE TO TRACK OF THE EC AND GFS/. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD/HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD WED INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS. COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL AND SERN PENN FLURRIES AND SCTD SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW AND LES IMPACTING THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN AND ITS EMBEDDED STORMS...I CAN CLEARLY HEAR GOOD OLE BING SINGING HIS FAMOUS...1941 CHRISTMAS BEST SELLER A BIT MORE CLEARLY EARLY THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 While I would like to see a bit more discussion on it, neither event is a lock at this point. The Christmas Eve / Day storm is not yet resolved and that is going to have an impact on the track of the Post Christmas storm. CTP can probably be a bit more confident because the models are also showing a strong CAD signal, which we do not benefit from. If the Christmas storm keeps trending stronger we could easily see rain, and if the post Christmas storm fails to transfer at a lower lattitude we will get the warm tongue and end up with slop to which we are all to familiar. I expect after todays 12z runs kpit will likely enhance the discussion. Lets not turn this into a NWS service bash. If they keep downplaying over the next few days while models show significant snow events then it may warrant some discussion but at this point I feel just the mention of snow is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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