meatwad Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z GFS is a bit North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z a little south with the higher qpf in SWPA, but still looks to get a solid .5 to most. It is actually further North in Eastern PA, and crushes Boston lol. If we can manage to get the .75 qpf contour up into most of SWPA I will count that has a win but we could also see ourselves watching millions of people along the east coast get destroyed while we end up with little. That is the nature of the game, but I still like our odds for a general 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 but I still like our odds for a general 3-4. Sounds reasonable. I don't think this is going to be a big hit for us. Maybe more of a moderate hit at best. An advisory type event. We'll probably see a mix or rain tomorrow, then it'll change over tomorrow night. A 2-4 or 3-5 event depending on where you live. Again, as of now. Things can still change of course either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I could do pretty well with this one. I think 4-6" or so. Guess it'll depend on how much rain/mix I see at the beginning. Made a wager with a friend a couple days ago that we would not see 8"+ with this system. Garrett County will get rocked, but that's nothing out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am still not sure about this storm. i just took the dog out and the sun feels really good even at 34 degrees. Part of me would love a final 4-8 inches of snow and part of me would be happy to move on to the 50's and 60's. I guess I would still like one more storm. I was thinking 3-6 was looking good but after today's slightly south movement I still think south of the city should get 3-5 while myself and North of the city 2-4. Butler County barely 1-2 with 2 being the southernmost. Like everyone else has said the storm could still move North 50 miles and all get 3-6, 4-8. Or it moves South and we all drop a bit. I am sure we will all know more around 11:00 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 250 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...HEAVY SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004- 012-050400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0018.130305T2300Z-130307T0000Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- WASHINGTON-GREENE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...ALIQUIPPA... BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE... NEW MARTINSVILLE 250 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * SNOW BEGINNING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. * SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My advisory has 4-6". Fayette County ridges have a Winter Storm Warning now with accumulations at 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Same here in Motown - first call is 4-6". It will probably change as I know Pitt likes to tweak their forecasts a lot. There is still uncertainty with this storm, as north pgh mentioned. Based on my personal 75% rule that means we probably get 1-2" in the end (haha). I would feel better if things were trending the other way, but as we've gotten closer the snow amounts have decreased. I'll be interested in seeing the 0Z Euro tonight, for sure. Of all the times for the Euro to cave to the GFS, this is not it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Latest NAM looks pretty wet for Morgantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Totals through 78 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (42.81K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm highly skeptical of NAM QPF outputs. I don't think I've ever seen that thing verify. In that regard you can probably half the totals and be okay. Mets in the Philly thread share my disdain. It has been really bad this winter (if not always). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z Reduced: 72% of original size [ 800 x 600 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Warnings to east of me... Winter Storm Warnings to the West of me.. here I am stuck in the middle with you lol Hopefully things trend favorably in upcoming runs to give NWS Pitt to upgrade to warning criteria. Jeff V calling for 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter Storm Warnings to east of me... Winter Storm Warnings to the West of me.. here I am stuck in the middle with you lol Hopefully things trend favorably in upcoming runs to give NWS Pitt to upgrade to warning criteria. Jeff V calling for 3-6. I think that is a good call at this point. All the models are coming around and giving us a solid 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Always a bridesmaid, never a bride, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'll check in the AM for the final consensus then it will be close to now casting....there shouldn't be any p type issues except in the first hour or two... With how things look currently I wish we could count on the NAM but u know how that goes!...I'm thinking 5" a good bet with hopes there's a slight shift north even 30 miles..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm making my call now! Going out on a limb, and will say 5-8 inches AGC wide. I think that we are going to get that 30-50 mile bump north as we get closer, and be all set. Hopefully we can get good ratios, and possibly push 10 inches, but I have a pretty good feeling about this storm. I'll probably be wrong though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice to see the ENS north of the OP. If Id cash out with this map in a heartbeat. .5 - .75 for all of SWPA. Ratios will likely average 10:1 or lower I would think. Its a shame we can't keep surface temperatures below freezing through the day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks further south on the SWPA precip shield as it barely gets the .25 up to my backyard, but looks good for eastern PA..Crushes NE. Folks up to about the turnpike look golden. I should add it looks a bit slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol. GFS is a disaster. Time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol. GFS is a disaster. Time for spring. Well, I wouldn't say a disaster, 6z, 12z, and 18z all had the .5 make it to say butler county, (18z maybe a bit further than that) but 00z is barely makes it to the Allegheny / Westmoreland county lines. Not what we wanted to see, but really only a shift of 30-40 miles, the sharp cutoff just exaggerates. It is discouraging both the GFS and NAM look worse especially with the Euro being a bit South,. We may be seeing compromise between the 2 camps. I will say, another shift south like this and they can probably drop the advisories for our area, at least north of counties bordering the M/D line. Of course if things move back towards the 18z GFS we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, I wouldn't say a disaster, 6z, 12z, and 18z all had the .5 make it to say butler county, (18z maybe a bit further than that) but 00z is barely makes it to the Allegheny / Westmoreland county lines. Not what we wanted to see, but really only a shift of 30-40 miles, the sharp cutoff just exaggerates. It is discouraging both the GFS and NAM look worse especially with the Euro being a bit South,. We may be seeing compromise between the 2 camps. I will say, another shift south like this and they can probably drop the advisories for our area, at least north of counties bordering the M/D line. Of course if things move back towards the 18z GFS we will be fine. The problem is, like I am trying to say in the CPA thread, is that any .4 or .5 QPF totals are going to be over a fairly long 18-24 hour period, and while those can look impressive when modeled, realistically, it isn't going to really accumulate much this time of year especially. As modeled on the GFS, I think KPIT would be lucky to break 2 inches...and I think that might be a stretch. Outside of the extreme southern tier and border counties of PA, I would think 1-3 inches would be the norm based off this run, and anything north of the turnpike is in trouble. My 5-8 call looks horrible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The problem is, like I am trying to say in the CPA thread, is that any .4 or .5 QPF totals are going to be over a fairly long 18-24 hour period, and while those can look impressive when modeled, realistically, it isn't going to really accumulate much this time of year especially. As modeled on the GFS, I think KPIT would be lucky to break 2 inches...and I think that might be a stretch. Outside of the extreme southern tier and border counties of PA, I would think 1-3 inches would be the norm based off this run, and anything north of the turnpike is in trouble. My 5-8 call looks horrible lol. I agree with you for now. If the system stays south we will be looking at 1-3 northern counties and 2-4, 3-5 southern counties. I remember a few storms back where we were supposed to get less than an inch and it came far enough north to give us 1-2. This is so close on the cutoffs that it could come back north 25 miles and we get our 3-6. I will wait til tomorrow and if we only get 1 or 2 inches I won't really be too upset because I pretty much wanted a big storm then spring. In December and January these near misses would bother me but in March I am okay with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM is now back further North from this afternoon's model. It shows a good 7 hours of somewhat moderate snowfall. I think we will still be okay with a solid 3-5 inches for the Pittsburgh area and maybe 6 for the southern communities. Just my hunch. I'll bet we see the precip come a little further north in the morning models. By the way, NWS is showing 2.5 inches from the NAM and still shows 5 inches from the 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0600 Nam nudged the snow a little furthur north. I'm still think about 4" of snow for Pgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A bit ironic that on the eve of one of the larger storms this season, it's one of the nicest mornings we've had in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1006 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 ...HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029-031-073-075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-052315- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WW.Y.0018.130305T2300Z-130307T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KPBZ.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130306T2200Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM- GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE- WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE... STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE... BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 1006 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES. * SNOW BEGINNING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...MIDNIGHT TO 8AM TUESDAY. * SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, what will win. Gfs is still very fringe for us...looks like .3 or .4 qpf...once sgainf though, with a 50 mile bump north we get 6-8 inches. Nws went exactly with my 5-8 call lol. I'm not feeling good about that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm quite surprised they bumped up the totals, but it seems like a variety of NWS outlets are discounting the GFS for a various number of reasons. Does anyone know what the short-term models are showing? I'm also curious to see the 12Z Euro from today. Unless proven otherwise I think I'll stick with my 75% rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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