north pgh Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just comparing yesterdays 12z GFS to this mornings 6z you can see some major problems for our area. The biggest is no phase, and not only is there not a phase but the energy in the northern stream is gone. I'm not sure where it went ie did it move out faster / slower does it just not exist now? Second, is that piece of energy over NE move out faster on 12z which helps give the storm more room to move north. Unless the missing NS energy is some sort of sparse data sampling issue, I think we are toast on this one. Even folks who do get in on the more moderate qpf will be in danger of rain /mix since the NS was also helping to supply some cold air. Anyways, I took this snippet from the 6z GFS. It looks almost exactly like the detour sign.... Capture.JPG On a lighter note, I woke up to a fresh coating of snow and currently getting a light to moderate snow shower. Another coating to 1/4 inch here to. It seems like we have had about 30 consecutive days with a coating every morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So close on the GFS, M/D line and south looks to do well. All we need is another 100 mile or so expansion of the precip to the north and we could see a nice moderate event to possibly close out the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Taken from the Mid Atlantic thread, suposed DT snowmap from the 12Z Euro. If accurate, all we really need is a 50 mile or so nudge north to give all of SWPA a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Taken from the Mid Atlantic thread, suposed DT snowmap from the 12Z Euro. If accurate, all we really need is a 50 mile or so nudge north to give all of SWPA a decent snow event. I'd take 8-12 in a heartbeat. That would make up for the rest of the disappointments this winter. Gotta root for the Euro, and for the GFS to trend in the right direction for us. Of course, deep down I just keep waiting for this to go the wrong way. That's what happens when you've had the rug pulled out from underneath you one too many times. We'll see what happens as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z GFS, for whats its worth, further north with the precip shield. Looks similar to the 12z ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Starting to looks a little like Feb 2010. Detour cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Starting to looks a little like Feb 2010. Detour cancel... Remember how the detour brought in back to back storms. The first gave us 22 inches of snow. The second storm gave me 9 inches of snow. I would take the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Starting to looks a little like Feb 2010. Detour cancel... Remember how the detour brought in back to back storms. The first gave us 22 inches of snow. The second storm gave me 9 inches of snow. I would take the second storm. I think it only works for you because I just took mine off recently. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Guys after last nights Jeff V possible snow....we gotta be on board! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM has moved North and put us in the heavier snow. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Another coating to 1/2 inch overnight. Scott Harbaugh of Channel 11 on his twitter says that we have had 33 out of the last 42 days with some snow totaling 26.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Another coating to 1/2 inch overnight. Scott Harbaugh of Channel 11 on his twitter says that we have had 33 out of the last 42 days with some snow totaling 26.3 inches. Yeah, except for a couple of torches it's been a pretty no-nonsense winter since the end of Dec.And that's without any large storms. (as of yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If I had to hazard a guess at this point I would say 2-4 inches from the city south but if things go well 3-6 might be a better call. The GFS is close temp wise at the surface but the precip should be falling after dark so that shouldn't matter much. I can't get a clear picture of what the Euro shows for our area but from what I can gather it has been south of the GFS but not sure if that affects us that much or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Storm cancel at this point? Now DC is looking like the better spot, not really surprising. Only one GFS ensemble member has basically anything over an inch here. Another winter fail ugh. Edit: Well I just saw the 12Z Euro. You can see it at: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk if you're interested. It has PIT between 3-6" - the snow map is considerably more displaced to the West and even a little more North than any GFS member. I guess it's still up in the air but consider my hopes considerably less confident. I think a lot depends on how and when the energy transfer occurs. The earlier the better for us. I imagine the transfer can happen later and perhaps farther to the East which would leave us dry in between the systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Storm cancel at this point? Now DC is looking like the better spot, not really surprising. Only one GFS ensemble member has basically anything over an inch here. Another winter fail ugh. Edit: Well I just saw the 12Z Euro. You can see it at: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk if you're interested. It has PIT between 3-6" - the snow map is considerably more displaced to the West and even a little more North than any GFS member. I guess it's still up in the air but consider my hopes considerably less confident. I think a lot depends on how and when the energy transfer occurs. The earlier the better for us. I imagine the transfer can happen later and perhaps farther to the East which would leave us dry in between the systems. I am not sure what you mean by storm cancel. All models have pretty much had Southwestern Pa. in a 3-6 range. It looks to me that Morgantown would fall under those ranges too. Unless you stay warmer then maybe 2-4 with more mix. I think late tonight we will see everything come together. If we get 3-6 inches here and DC gets hammered I will not consider it a disappointment. You take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This was posted in the cpa thread 6 to 10" for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Another coating to 1/2 inch overnight. Scott Harbaugh of Channel 11 on his twitter says that we have had 33 out of the last 42 days with some snow totaling 26.3 inches. Talk to him on Facebook sometimes just to get his thoughts and he seems to think 2-4 as of now for the upcoming storm. Temps and low snow ratios may keep the totals down here with most accumulation occurring Tuesday night. A lot can still change. That's as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Talk to him on Facebook sometimes just to get his thoughts and he seems to think 2-4 as of now for the upcoming storm. Temps and low snow ratios may keep the totals down here with most accumulation occurring Tuesday night. A lot can still change. That's as of now. He is being very conservative. He doesn't like to put out totals too early like most tv mets. I think it is a good start but could go up. Remember how Feb 2010 all the mets were up to 3-6 and 4-7 before we finished with 22? I don't think it will happen but depending on shifts in the next 24-48 hours we could go down to 1-3 or up to 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Guys I'm thinking a conservative 4-6..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is DTs first guess. Seems pretty reasonable. We are soooo close, if we can get that 4-8 to nudge North another 25-50 miles most all of SWPA should be pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Meanwhile probably got about 2" today total.....pretty nice little snow shower right now. This one may be a Mon Valley special. Also, like JWilson's chances at some heavier stuff after getting shafted a lot down there. NAM looks a bit juicier in the midwest, but seems to hit a brick wall. I think the net result will be similar for us, but really dries up to the east - but it does get into that range where most don't trust it. Gotta get that H5 bowling ball a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Meanwhile probably got about 2" today total.....pretty nice little snow shower right now. This one may be a Mon Valley special. Also, like JWilson's chances at some heavier stuff after getting shafted a lot down there. NAM looks a bit juicier in the midwest, but seems to hit a brick wall. I think the net result will be similar for us, but really dries up to the east - but it does get into that range where most don't trust it. Gotta get that H5 bowling ball a little further north. I just had a snow shower go by last hour and dropped another 1/2 inch of fluffy snow. I have a fresh inch today after yesterday's melted. The NAM did move south. We are probably wavering between 2-4 North of the city and and 3-6 South of the city. South Hills will probably get more either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS looking slightly north and juicier in our area... .75 looks to be up to about KAGC, and is much juicier through most of Wva vs 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS looking slightly north and juicier in our area... .75 looks to be up to about KAGC, and is much juicier through most of Wva vs 12Z Question is, how much of that is going to actually be snow and what are the ratios going to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00z looks good, slight expansion north of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Question is, how much of that is going to actually be snow and what are the ratios going to be? I think most of it is snow. Without looking at soundings, 850 and surface are both below freezing for the bulk of our heavy qpf. Add that to the fact the bulk will be falling early wed morning in darkness and and I think we look pretty good in that department. I would expect ratios in the 8:1 - 11:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am not sure what you mean by storm cancel. All models have pretty much had Southwestern Pa. in a 3-6 range. It looks to me that Morgantown would fall under those ranges too. Unless you stay warmer then maybe 2-4 with more mix. I think late tonight we will see everything come together. If we get 3-6 inches here and DC gets hammered I will not consider it a disappointment. You take what you can get. Yeah I said that after seeing the GFS which yesterday gave us almost nothing. The 0Z swung back north but the 6Z is a tad south again. Meanwhile the Euro has been pretty consistent. The way the GFS keeps moving the track is concerning, but the Euro is the higher-res model and it was nearly dead-on for the Boston blizzard about a week ahead of time going in. Its consistency is good to see, but still 48 hours away a lot can change. I'm going to ignore individual runs and blend 0Z/12Z tomorrow, I think, especially since the GFS keeps waffling. I'm completely discounting the NAM because it has been really really bad this year. Also my 75% rule is always alarming in my head (it only applies down here - those in Pittsburgh can ignore it haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am sure everyone here also lurks in the Central PA thread, but in case you missed it they had this snowfall map posted from the Euro: Mag reporting from Euro text Pitt is in the .5, which seems to line up pretty well with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Latest GFS & Nam have Pgh getting 5-6 inches of snow. That is assuming an 11-1 ratio. If that were bumped to 15-1 it would go to 8 inches of snow. Also if low nudges alittle more north --more snow, a little more south less snow. This thing could change drastically either way down to the last few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z NAM, so close, can you imagine what a 25-50 mile North jog would do with that sort of sharp cutoff... I think at this point we just need less confluence so the precip shield can expand. Low track could probably stay the same, of course if it gets cranking faster that would probably help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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