blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We do have another possibility for next week. Another storm that is over a week away, so anything could happen with it. Right now it's a cutter, but you hope it would trend east over time like some of these other storms have. Again, over a week away. Anything from the storm eventually disappearing to never moving at all and giving us mostly rain could happen at this point. Not confident the way our luck has been but something to keep an eye on I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is OTS it looks like, although several of the ensemble members have a bigger storm that would give us snow, one in particular hammers us. From what I can gather, EURO is OTS as well. GGEM is well inland again, probably to close for comfort. UKMET looks to be east, but not as far as GFS and Euro. This VD thing seems like it will be lucky to put down an inch unless you are well SE of the city, and even then there are P-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think our detour signs aren't working. The storms are taking them too seriously. lol If I recall when we used the detour signs all storms were going south that year but eventually we got the 2 storms in Feb to come up. Patience my friends. There are still 2 weeks left in February and then early March. I have no problem with a foot of snow and then having it melt in 2 days. Monday looks interesting. It may cut or may not but may be cold enough to give us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If I recall when we used the detour signs all storms were going south that year but eventually we got the 2 storms in Feb to come up. Patience my friends. There are still 2 weeks left in February and then early March. I have no problem with a foot of snow and then having it melt in 2 days. Monday looks interesting. It may cut or may not but may be cold enough to give us something. What are you seeing for Monday? Sorry if I am missing something. Not seeing anything on models for then. Both Euro and GFS have system to our west for late Tue/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If I recall when we used the detour signs all storms were going south that year but eventually we got the 2 storms in Feb to come up. Patience my friends. There are still 2 weeks left in February and then early March. I have no problem with a foot of snow and then having it melt in 2 days. Monday looks interesting. It may cut or may not but may be cold enough to give us something. What are you seeing for Monday? Sorry if I am missing something. Not seeing anything on models for then. Both Euro and GFS have system to our west for late Tue/Wed Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing as you to be honest. Tomorrow is little or nothing for us and the weekend threat is still a very slim possibility at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 What are you seeing for Monday? Sorry if I am missing something. Not seeing anything on models for then. Both Euro and GFS have system to our west for late Tue/Wed I was looking at the GGEM. I believe it would be around Monday (110-120 hour mark). Correct me if I'm wrong. Just something to look it. This model has been pretty good long range so far this year since I have been following it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There's a small chance next week, but it seems unlikely. Absent the prospects of a triple phase as the GFS showed on one run, we just seem to lie too far west or east of all the major systems--leaving us with rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I was looking at the GGEM. I believe it would be around Monday (110-120 hour mark). Correct me if I'm wrong. Just something to look it. This model has been pretty good long range so far this year since I have been following it. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I was wrong. Tues-Wed time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There's a small chance next week, but it seems unlikely. Absent the prospects of a triple phase as the GFS showed on one run, we just seem to lie too far west or east of all the major systems--leaving us with rain or nothing. We're just in a bad area for big storms to occur. This always happens in this area. We get a big one once every 6 or 7 years on average maybe. We get a moderate event every once in a while and a ton of light events. Not close enough to the ocean, not close enough to the lakes, not close enough to the mountains, and it just seems that it has to be a perfect setup for us to get hammered by something. I think that's why we end up frustrated most of the time when tracking these big systems. That's my take on it anyway. It makes it that much sweeter when it finally happens for us. We just have to suffer through the many letdowns before it occurs. Does any of that sound off base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There's a small chance next week, but it seems unlikely. Absent the prospects of a triple phase as the GFS showed on one run, we just seem to lie too far west or east of all the major systems--leaving us with rain or nothing. I felt sure we were going to get something good this weekend.... The setup was really good looking. Even the Mets said pattern was prime for something big but the pieces just couldn't come together. I've given up on it, even the ensemble members lack anything good. I think even HM mentioned how it resembled 93 in some ways. Just a waste of potential... Here is to hoping we can manage something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I felt sure we were going to get something good this weekend.... The setup was really good looking. Even the Mets said pattern was prime for something big but the pieces just couldn't come together. I've given up on it, even the ensemble members lack anything good. I think even HM mentioned how it resembled 93 in some ways. Just a waste of potential... Here is to hoping we can manage something next week. I really bought into this weekend also. The signals were there. Sent out maps to friends showing them the possibilities of what could occur. People were going to cancel plans based on my reports...Today I had to send an apology that I jumped the gun..Sucks for sure. At least it wasn't something that the models lost last minute.. Now I won't buy into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice write up on weekend possibility. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weekend-storm-potential/5997763 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice write up on weekend possibility.http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weekend-storm-potential/5997763 Nice read, thanks. Gives us some hope for the rest of the winter as well. Not getting my hopes up but I won't be close minded about the possibilities either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice read, thanks. Gives us some hope for the rest of the winter as well. Not getting my hopes up but I won't be close minded about the possibilities either. Nice write up on weekend possibility. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weekend-storm-potential/5997763 It looks like the NAM was hinting at development but the GFS hasn't caught on yet. I guess we keep waiting. ON to the GGEM and the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM picking something up now this weekend. We need it to develop a little further south. These models are really jumping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM picking something up now this weekend. We need it to develop a little further south. These models are really jumping around. 0z run is up already? I thought it already had a storm with the previous runs? Just tracking to our west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z run is up already? I thought it already had a storm with the previous runs? Just tracking to our west? Totally different. Weird. See below. The Tues storm is gone but it picks up a storm right over and us and develops up the coast over the weekend. It may be nothing but yet again something to watch. We need a met in our forum to help us out with these things. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Totally different. Weird. See below. The Tues storm is gone but it picks up a storm right over and us and develops up the coast over the weekend. It may be nothing but yet again something to watch. We need a met in our forum to help us out with these things. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 00z GGEM actually looks similar to the NAM in the later panels which probably does not give it much weight. Also, the GGEM is much weaker than what it was showing which could be construed as it caving towards the GFS and Euro. Even now, the 12z NAM develops the storm later. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GGEM also weaker and east today. If anything is going to pop from this setup I think the models will see it within the next 24 hours or so. I hope I am wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 It looks like nickel and dime snow showers thru the weekend now. Next event Tuesday could be rain and slop to snow? Kind of what we experienced a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It looks like nickel and dime snow showers thru the weekend now. Next event Tuesday could be rain and slop to snow? Kind of what we experienced a lot this winter. Like you said before, when we're in the bullseye, it moves. When it's in a bad spot for us, east or west, it doesn't seem to budge. The storm next Tuesday has barely shifted at all since showing up on the models. A trend to the east would be big for us but hasn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Like you said before, when we're in the bullseye, it moves. When it's in a bad spot for us, east or west, it doesn't seem to budge. The storm next Tuesday has barely shifted at all since showing up on the models. A trend to the east would be big for us but hasn't happened yet. At this point since the weekend event is pretty much out of the window, maybe it can still score an assist. If it can still blow up OTS perhaps it can provide some blocking / confluence for the Tuesday storm to keep it from cutting. It is maddening that these cutters stay on for days at a time. If the same amount of cutters trended east as our " modeled hits" do we would probably double our seasonal snowfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice read, thanks. Gives us some hope for the rest of the winter as well. Not getting my hopes up but I won't be close minded about the possibilities either. This same guy today does a great sales job with video on keeping the hope for weekend storm. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-mid-atlantic-snow-today-weekend-snowstorm/937434192001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Getting some light snow here in the North Hills. I wasn't even sure I would see a flake from the entire storm. Looks like south hills people may get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Coming down pretty good here. Nice surprise! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA254 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-076-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-132145-ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-FAYETTE RIDGES PA-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-MARION WV-MARSHALL WV-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-OHIO WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-254 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013...SNOW WILL AFFECTALLEGHENY...BELMONT...BROOKE...CARROLL...COSHOCTON...FAYETTE...GREENEGUERNSEY...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JEFFERSON...MARION...MARSHALL...MONONGALIA...MONROE...MUSKINGUM...NOBLE...OHIO...SOUTHEASTERNCOLUMBIANA...SOUTHERN BEAVER...TUSCARAWAS...WASHINGTON...WESTERNWESTMORELAND AND WETZEL COUNTIES...AT 247 PM EST...SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS THE DISTRICT THISAFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.SNOW MAY QUICKLY FREEZE AND CREATE ICY CONDITIONS IF THE SURFACE ISUNTREATED. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND BE ALERTFOR DETERIORATING DRIVING CONDITIONS.PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTINGTO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER@NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice read, thanks. Gives us some hope for the rest of the winter as well. Not getting my hopes up but I won't be close minded about the possibilities either. This same guy today does a great sales job with video on keeping the hope for weekend storm. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-mid-atlantic-snow-today-weekend-snowstorm/937434192001 Yeah, to me it sounded like he just didn't want to completely rule it out yet, since we're still a few days away, but the odds are strongly against it at this point. I'm getting some light snow in West Mifflin right now, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 38 degrees and snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 In Bethel now. Snow is coming down at a light to at times moderate rate right now. Large wet flakes coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Large wet flakes here, also. Already a coating in the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Moderate snow here. Very wet snow. 34 degrees. Just got back from driving. All roads are wet but grass and trees are coated. At my house with a little elevation the snow is accumulating on some of the pavement. About 1/2 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 overperforming here in bethel park! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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