blackngoldrules Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Swing and a miss on the EURO for the VD storm. As currently modeled doesn't look like it wouldnt come north... Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (34.14K) What else is new for us. I took a look at all of the other models and it seems like the GFS is the only one giving us anything noteworthy. Everything else keeps it to our south for the most part. The GFS will probably eventually cave and go with the other solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 What else is new for us. I took a look at all of the other models and it seems like the GFS is the only one giving us anything noteworthy. Everything else keeps it to our south for the most part. The GFS will probably eventually cave and go with the other solutions. 18z GFS is better but still too far east. We would get 1-2 inches while New York and Boston would be looking at another foot. The Detour is up so hopefully it will bring it North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (36.14K) 800 x 600 (28.33K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What else is new for us. I took a look at all of the other models and it seems like the GFS is the only one giving us anything noteworthy. Everything else keeps it to our south for the most part. The GFS will probably eventually cave and go with the other solutions. 18z GFS is better but still too far east. We would get 1-2 inches while New York and Boston would be looking at another foot. The Detour is up so hopefully it will bring it North. We need some other models to join in on this as well. If the EURO started trending toward what the GFS is showing, I'd start to feel more optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 I was just looking at the 18z GFS at 180-228. I know we are talking 8 days out but damn if it doesn't look similar to March 1993. I can only dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Actually getting some light snow in Baldwin right now that's coating up the roads a bit. The wrath of Nemo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I was just looking at the 18z GFS at 180-228. I know we are talking 8 days out but damn if it doesn't look similar to March 1993. I can only dream. I was actually thinking that too. We have to rely on model porn when we see our neighbors to the east getting the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I was actually thinking that too. We have to rely on model porn when we see our neighbors to the east getting the real thing. Its all we have right now... Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (30.92K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Reading the posts in the New York City subforum has been entertaining to say the least. Not all but many people are complaining that they are going to end up with 8-10 inches after thinking they were going to get 16-20. How many 8-10 inch snowfalls do we get and has anyone on this board complained after getting one? Heck we get excited for 4-6 anymore. These people expect these large storms anymore and set themselves up for a letdown. I am looking forward to tracking a few storms next week and hopefully we can cash in. (I am getting to the point where I still want a big storm, who doesn't, but I will feel really good when we get into March and the warm up starts) Don't we all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 March '93 was so special because all three jet streams phased to form that massive bomb. Tornadoes then snow in Florida, accumulating snowfall from Florida to Maine, just unreal. Unfortunately I think that was a once in a lifetime deal; too bad I was 7 at the time and couldn't really appreciate it. I could much further enjoy such a system now, and tracking it would be lots of fun. I think we almost hit a triple phase a few years back but just weren't quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 0z GFS.....some more model porn for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Wow.. Phase much? Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Hopefully we can manage something from either the VD threat or the potential this weekend. 6z GFS already looks less impressive for the weekend but still has something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Patience is the key for the next month or so. I know last night was tough to watch, and the latest operational models are less than ideal verbatim. However I still feel with an increasingly active southern stream, all we need is a couple of northern vorts to dig into the Tenn Valley. It's kinda frustrating now, but I think the payoff will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's funny that the NAM brings Wednesday's low right over Pittsburgh and the GFS takes it over South Carolina. GFS has to come North, do yo think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I wouldn't give up on the Pres Day threat just yet. Euro Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I have been away over the weekend and hoped to come home and see things trending the same or better but it seems like both threats have basically vaporized... Still time to see if things change back to more favorable I guess. That cutter that was forecast the last 7 days is still going to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 With the birds singing and the warm start to the morning it sounds and feels like spring out there this morning. BTW, I'll take one order of the 06z GFS to go please. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 With the birds singing and the warm start to the morning it sounds and feels like spring out there this morning. BTW, I'll take one order of the 06z GFS to go please. Thanks! This is not skinimax, this is some true model porn... Reduced: 80% of original size [ 800 x 600 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My Weenie explanation as to why the 12z sucks vs 06z: First examining 6z at 81 hours shows a nice unclosed piece of energy riding up over the developing PNA ridge. 12z has a closed 500mb vort that appears to move slowly until it opens up again. By now, the 6z has already phased 2 pieces of energy into a consolidated negative tilted trough just waiting for the third piece to come in. 12z has a mess of partially phased vorts in a positive tilted trough. Also note, the third vort that road up over the ridge and dove into the trough on 6z is not there. Thus we have less energy diving into the trough and a later phase of the other energy resulting in a further east and less robust solution. My guess would be to watch the handling of these different pieces over the next few days. It would be nice to see some other models hint at a something similar to 6z. Now if we only had a real Met in the thread to explain why I am probably wrong we would be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 With the birds singing and the warm start to the morning it sounds and feels like spring out there this morning. BTW, I'll take one order of the 06z GFS to go please. Thanks! 12z just brought us back to reality. If we're not going to cash in on anything big this winter then these springlike temps might as well stick around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1217 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-120130- /O.EXB.KPBZ.WI.Y.0004.130211T1800Z-130212T0800Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG- INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE- OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON... HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY... FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY... BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI... MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG... NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN... CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING... MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN 1217 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM TODAY. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST GUSTS. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Our Buddy Fries doesn't seem to have much confidence in anything substantial happening this weekend around here. Gives a shot at something for the mid week threat, although very minor I'm sure. 000FXUS61 KPBZ 111800AFDPBZAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA100 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURESWELL ABOVE NORMAL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE RESTOF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA LATEWEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...UPDATE INCLUDE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING DUE TO ABUNDANTINSOLATION...AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA...LAPSERATES OVER THE LOWEST 5-7 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BECOMEDECIDEDLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FORGUSTS TO 50 MPH AS AMPLE SUNSHINE IS MIXING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TOTHE SURFACE.GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO HELPING TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 50SAND EVEN LOW 60S NOW AT KMGW. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURSAS STRONG WINDS AT 5000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN UNTIL WELLAFTER SUNSET.FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHTUESDAY...HOWEVER LAYER RH VALUES BECOME FAIRLY LEAN AND ALL AREASSHOULD TREND DECIDEDLY DRIER. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVESIGNIFICANT DIFFICULTY DEALING WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING THEREGION BY LATER WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THETRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF THE FARTHEST SOUTH. THE ECMWFHAS TRENDED WELL NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION WITH THISSYSTEM...AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD CONSENSUS MODEL. ASSUCH...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS MID-WEEK WITH THESYSTEM.IN FAVORING THE GFS...PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RATHERPROBLEMATIC. AT OUTBREAK...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ON THE GFSWOULD LIKELY BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...PARTICULARLYWITH HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY LIKELY TO ECLIPSE 40F OVER MUCH OFTHE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN A SURFACE SYSTEM TRACK GENERALLY NEAR TOOR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH WET BULBCOOLING SHOULD QUICKLY GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ENOUGH TOSUPPORT SNOW OVER MUCH OR ALL OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSUCH...THE FORECAST FAVORS A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN/MIX TOSNOW FOR ALL AREAS INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. AT THEMOMENT...ACCUMULATIONS ARE QUITE TENUOUS...HOWEVER SHOULD THE GFSSOLUTION VERIFY...SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE RIDGES ATLEAST. FRIES&&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERNOVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA TOWARD THE END OF THEWEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FAVOR ABROAD TROUGH AGAIN BEING CARVED OUT. WHILE ONLY WEAK CLIPPER-TYPESYSTEMS ARE PROJECTED BY THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODANYWHERE IN OUR REGION...BY NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY...THE CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR 850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN DIVINGTOWARD -15 TO -20C OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPRESS OURHIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THATLAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY SNOW COVERED...EVEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOWOVER THE AREA...SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY WITHOUT ADECENT SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. AT THE MOMENT...PREDICTABILITY OF ANYCLIPPER SYSTEM IS TOO LOW...AND NO SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAMACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR...SO POPS WEREREDUCED IN THE COLD AIR. FRIES&&.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAYAS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR MOST SITESWILL BE CROSS WIND CONCERNS AS SUSTAINED W-SW WIND OF 20-25KTS ORGREATER WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.AS THE STACKED LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT...LOW LEVELMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL RETURN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TO MUCHOF THE REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SITESNORTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHSNAT KFKL AND KDUJ IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAYBREAK...THOUGHRESTRICTIONS WITH THIS WERE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW..OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATE TUESDAY THROUGHTHE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BRING SOMERESTRICTIONS IN RASN FOR POINTS SOUTHEAST OF KPIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONTBRINGS THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTOFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, I'm going to beat this one to death today I guess..... GGEM has a big low, probably a bit to far west for our liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, I'm going to beat this one to death today I guess..... GGEM has a big low, probably a bit to far west for our liking. gemglbPR12.30.gif Keep beating it...I am following this one closely also, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Doesn't it seem like everytime we are on the very edge of a storm days out the models lock in and it stays there? When we are in the bullseye it seems to always move. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Bad news north pgh...Orko was used on the central states winter storm that gave us rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Orko... another non storm for Pa. (It did bring us wind didn't it?) Oh well. We will have to settle for any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Doesn't it seem like everytime we are on the very edge of a storm days out the models lock in and it stays there? When we are in the bullseye it seems to always move. Just saying. Yep, it sure does. Many many times we've been through this. 18z GFS keeps the weekend storm well to our east. Watch it come back just enough to still miss us and hit folks to our east again. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think our detour signs aren't working. The storms are taking them too seriously. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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