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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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Wow, that's pretty amazing, thanks for sharing. How much water vapor does that place pump out?

Obviously a bunch.

 

I saw that happening first hand two years ago. On my way to Beaver Valley Mall, I passed through a band of snow on an otherwise snowless day. Once I was clear of it, it was obvious that the power plant was the source. It wasn't nearly as impressive as this event though. This actually made the KDKA radio news this afternoon.

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Latest forecast discussion barely even mentions possible snow tomorrow, looking like 1-2 inches.  There are pretty big discrepancies still between the off-hour runs of the GFS and the main runs (difference of like 3-4").  The NAM is also pretty dry, though, and despite its deficiencies, it tends to be right when it is not over-saturated.  My confidence in anything more than a couple inches is pretty low.  Still waiting on something more significant (the eternal waiting game, I guess).

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Wow, that's pretty amazing, thanks for sharing. How much water vapor does that place pump out?

I'll answer my own question here: (From the Trib http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourallekiskivalley/yourallekiskivalleymore/3349260-74/snow-cooling-plant#axzz2IjWXWfq5)

 

"Each of the plant‘s two operating cooling towers emits moist steam that evaporates into the environment at the rate of about 10,000 gallons per minute, according to Jennifer Young, a spokeswoman for FirstEnergy. Water in the cooling towers is at 90 to 95 degrees."

 
also: (probably why I seem to have a bit more snow on the ground than surrounding areas)

"Hendricks said people living in Tarentum, New Kensington and Lower Burrell commented on the weather service‘s Facebook page about getting snow from it."

 

Lets fire up a couple hundred of these puppies and we can make our own SWPA Snowstorms. :lmao:

 

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

955 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

OHZ040-041-050-PAZ013-014-020-021-029-WVZ001-241545-

ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-

JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-WASHINGTON PA-

955 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY...BEAVER...COLUMBIANA...EXTREME

NORTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN

WASHINGTON...NORTHERN HANCOCK...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND SOUTHWESTERN

LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 952 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES WEST OF

WARREN TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF MARS...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2

MILES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ZELIENOPLE... MARS... FOMBELL...

EVANS CITY... ELLWOOD CITY... BESSEMER...

GIBSONIA... CRANBERRY... RUSSELLTON...

WEXFORD... BEAVER FALLS... DARLINGTON...

HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

I-279 PARKWAY NORTH BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 13.

I-579 CROSSTOWN BOULEVARD.

ROUTE 43 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 53.

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 52.

I-376 PARKWAY WEST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 69.

I-376 PARKWAY CENTRAL BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 74.

I-376 PARKWAY EAST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 80.

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 89.

I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 49.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING

TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER

@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4068 7981 4022 7984 4035 8021 4048 8036

4048 8052 4064 8086 4065 8092 4072 8092

4073 8099 4090 8102 4091 8091 4093 8090

4093 8082 4091 8081 4091 8053 4104 8052

$$

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Has something changes? Even the discussion still just mentions 1-3?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-

021-022-250430-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0004.130125T1500Z-130126T0600Z/

COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-

JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-

WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-

MONONGALIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...

EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...SHARON...HERMITAGE...

GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...

SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...

ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...

MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...

NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...

MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM

EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1

AM EST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE

AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4-6 INCHES.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL

IMPACT THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

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I think they'll adjust that down based on the models, not sure why they issued it saying that.  Then again maybe it is cold enough to support higher snow ratios? I'm not sure where to check ratios but I imagine last night we did better than or around 20:1.

Everything I see is around .2 qpf so even at 20:1 is 4 inches. Unless some of the shorter range models are showing something else or they are figuring better than 20:1 or they will adjust down as you mentioned.

 

I guess if models are off by even .05 on total qpf that is another inch of snow so maybe that is what they are thinking.

 

I use here: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kpit to see the text output sometimes, not sure how accurate the ratios are but I think it should be pretty good on total qpf.

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Yeah, they have to be thinking the ratios are going to be very high with this one. Still seems a bit high to me but we'll see.

Yeah I agree, 2-4 seems safer. Hopefully Fries is on duty for the next discussion so we will get a good explanation on their thinking.

 

Temps will be in the teens too so if we get a period of moderate snow it will be hard to keep the roads clear even if it we do end up on the low end of that.

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000

FXUS61 KPBZ 242304

AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

604 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING

DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

EXP DRY AND COLD CONDS TNGT AS HI PRES BLDS IN. WL SEE MD/HI LVL

CLDS INCRG THRU THE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY FROM THE

NORTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE

FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS

THE REGION.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT PROFILE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL

SATURATE VERY QUICKLY TOWARDS LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME

TIME...STRONGEST OMEGA WILL BE JUST BELOW TO AT THE DENDRITIC

GROWTH ZONE GIVING THE REGION A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH THE MOST

INTENSE SNOW FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RUSH HOUR COMMUTE.

ONCE LOW PRESSURE PASSES...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST CAUSING

LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MAINLY FOR THE RIDGES AND THE COUNTIES

TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY YIELDING

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT

INTO MONDAY. CONSIDERING THERMAL PROFILES...GFS SHOWS MORE WARM AIR

MOVING IN ALOFT AND A POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...WHILE

ECMWF SHOWS LESS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ALLOWS FOR A

TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 72+ HOURS

AWAY...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST INCLUDE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE

FORECAST. ALTHOUGH FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH MONDAY...WITH THE

AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW AN UNSETTLED

PATTERN...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. LOW

PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH

THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING HOW WELL GFS/ECMWF PLUS ENSEMBLES

AGREE ON THE PATTERN...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP...BRINGING A RETURN TO LAKE EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO

THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES

RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE

ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD USHER A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL

TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL PORTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK. SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. PERIODS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SNOW WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DECREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

MDZ001.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY

FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.

PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY

FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

PAZ074-076.

WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY

FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-022.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

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I still don't understand why NWS is calling 4-6 inches at this point?

They just revised it down but not by much.

The point and click forecast says 2-4 tomorrow and 1 inch tomorrow night.

The winter weather advisory was at 4-6 but was changed to 3-6.

I believe it should be 3-5.

I also think they are counting on another inch or less on Sat morning from lake effect included in those totals.

Regardless it is going to snow and I still believe we will get a solid 2-4.

:snowman:

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They just revised it down but not by much.

The point and click forecast says 2-4 tomorrow and 1 inch tomorrow night.

The winter weather advisory was at 4-6 but was changed to 3-6.

I believe it should be 3-5.

I also think they are counting on another inch or less on Sat morning from lake effect included in those totals.

Regardless it is going to snow and I still believe we will get a solid 2-4.

:snowman:

Agree, I think most will see around 2-4, with closer to the higher end verifying. It should be stated again though, with ratios of 20:1, even if the models are on the low side of qpf by .05, that adds another inch of snow so it won't take much to affect sensible weather. Combine that with road temperatures well below freezing, and the snow being heaviest around rush hour and we could see a mess tomorrow afternoon / evening.

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They just revised it down but not by much.

The point and click forecast says 2-4 tomorrow and 1 inch tomorrow night.

The winter weather advisory was at 4-6 but was changed to 3-6.

I believe it should be 3-5.

I also think they are counting on another inch or less on Sat morning from lake effect included in those totals.

Regardless it is going to snow and I still believe we will get a solid 2-4.

:snowman:

Agree, I think most will see around 2-4, with closer to the higher end verifying. It should be stated again though, with ratios of 20:1, even if the models are on the low side of qpf by .05, that adds another inch of snow so it won't take much to affect sensible weather. Combine that with road temperatures well below freezing, and the snow being heaviest around rush hour and we could see a mess tomorrow afternoon / evening.

Yeah, I think we've all been saying around 2-4 all along and now it looks like the NWS finally joined the party and downgraded their amounts. They're saying about 2-3 now total. Barely an advisory event. Still could be a tricky afternoon rush hour though.

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They went from 4-6 to 1-2?

 

What are they doing?

The NWS has been all over the place with this one since yesterday. We all figured they'd have to eventually lower the initial forecast of 4-6. When I woke up this morning, my forecast said 1-2 today with another inch tonight. Now, it says 1-3 today with another inch tonight, so I guess the 2-4 we've all been talking about is what they're currently going with, depending on location of course. It's all about nowcasting at this point.

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The NWS has been all over the place with this one since yesterday. We all figured they'd have to eventually lower the initial forecast of 4-6. When I woke up this morning, my forecast said 1-2 today with another inch tonight. Now, it says 1-3 today with another inch tonight, so I guess the 2-4 we've all been talking about is what they're currently going with, depending on location of course. It's all about nowcasting at this point.

Watch this quick storm end up overproducing and we get 6. Wouldn't that be funny. (Not for anyone driving of course)

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They went from 4-6 to 1-2?

 

What are they doing?

Reading the discussions, it seems the system is moving faster than they were thinking originally combined with low moisture supply it makes sense to downgrade. I was a bit surprised by the original 4-6 in the advisory, but at that time there was still a slight chance the system could intensify slightly more. 00z Models also look to be a hair drier than the 12z and 18z from yesterday. Everything looks to be on target right now.

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Looking ahead...I know these are not that reliable, but crazy, close to 4 inches of rain for the 31st?

 

current gfs Precipitation for PITTSBURGH INTL PA 3 (KPIT)
Location: 40.50N 80.22W
Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type.

prec.png

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Looking ahead...I know these are not that reliable, but crazy, close to 4 inches of rain for the 31st?

 

current gfs Precipitation for PITTSBURGH INTL PA 3 (KPIT)

Location: 40.50N 80.22W

Please note that the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain. Please check the Temperature (Lower) image link to the left as well to confirm the precipitation type.

prec.png

This makes me want to say it figures... We spend days agonizing over .05 of qpf for today's storm, while a rain storm has no problem dumping +3 inches lol. In reality, this is probably a good thing, I think it signals the STJ is finally getting it's act together thanks in part to some favorable MJO action. We will finally have cold, and storm chances so it looks like the deck is finally stacked in the favor of cold and stormy for a few weeks after next weeks brief warmup. We could still end up dealt a bad hand, but it looks more and more like somewhere in the east is going to cash in. BTW, I recommend everyone follow the Philly sub forum medium range thread. Absolutely awesome discussion going on in there right now.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1011 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-

021-022-252315-

/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130126T0600Z/

COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-

JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-

WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-

MONONGALIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...

EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...SHARON...HERMITAGE...

GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...

SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...

ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...

MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...

NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...

MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN

1011 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS

AMOUNTS TOWARD I-80.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

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