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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather

north pgh

By north pgh,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
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Posted

I saw the 06z looks pretty lousy qpf wise for this now, but that's probably underdone based on just one model run. Looks like the 12z NAM is further south vs last night but still out there for the NAM. After all the slop storms it would really suck to be to far North.

Now it looks like this Friday stork is going to be more south and weaker.

Still a couple days off now but now we are looking at 1-2 inches based on the latest NAM and GFS.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

Now it looks like this Friday stork is going to be more south and weaker.

Still a couple days off now but now we are looking at 1-2 inches based on the latest NAM and GFS.

Yeah, looks like most models this afternoon went towards the idea of the GFS. Not a good trend, but I probably wouldn't throw in the towel yet. This probably sounds weenie, but I have no clue how well the short waves in question are being sampled and where they are, but I would expect we should have a pretty good idea by 12z tomorrow if this is going to improve.

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
Now it looks like this Friday stork is going to be more south and weaker.

Still a couple days off now but now we are looking at 1-2 inches based on the latest NAM and GFS.

Yeah, looks like most models this afternoon went towards the idea of the GFS. Not a good trend, but I probably wouldn't throw in the towel yet. This probably sounds weenie, but I have no clue how well the short waves in question are being sampled and where they are, but I would expect we should have a pretty good idea by 12z tomorrow if this is going to improve.

Not weenie at all. Still a few days out yet. If this solution is still coming up for the 12z runs tomorrow, then I may have towel in hand ready to toss it in, at least for the possibility of something significant.

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north pgh

north pgh

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Not weenie at all. Still a few days out yet. If this solution is still coming up for the 12z runs tomorrow, then I may have towel in hand ready to toss it in, at least for the possibility of something significant.

If this stays that far south there will be little snow but at least you won't have mixing issues :P  :P  :P  :P  :P

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
Not weenie at all. Still a few days out yet. If this solution is still coming up for the 12z runs tomorrow, then I may have towel in hand ready to toss it in, at least for the possibility of something significant.

If this stays that far south there will be little snow but at least you won't have mixing issues :P:P:P:P:P

I just can't win, can I! :lol:

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colonel717

colonel717

Posted
Posted

NWS still sticking with heavy snow?  Their discussion was updated at 1:33 pm. 

 

THURSDAY NIGHT UNDERCUT MODEL MOS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RIDGES AS SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR A TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONG RUN-TO-RUN INSISTENCE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT...POPS WERE INCREASED MARKEDLY TO CATEGORICAL. IN
ADDITION...WITH LIFT SQUARELY ENTRENCHED IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...RATIOS SEEM LIKELY TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. FURTHERMORE...WHILE PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL BROUGHT A WARM TONGUE OF AIR FARTHER
NORTH...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES REALLY NO LONGER
FAVOR THIS WHATSOEVER. AS SUCH...ALL PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGED
OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW ADDED
TO THE GRIDS. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT HEADLINES FOR
THIS SYSTEM ARE A VERY DEFINITE POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. FRIES
 

Thursday
Night

nsn30.png

Chance
Light Snow

Low: 15 °F

Friday
 

sn80.png

Heavy
Snow

High: 24 °F

Friday
Night

nsn60.png

Snow
Likely

Low: 11 °F

Saturday
 

bkn.png

Partly
Sunny

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north pgh

north pgh

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NWS still sticking with heavy snow?  Their discussion was updated at 1:33 pm. 

 

THURSDAY NIGHT UNDERCUT MODEL MOS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND

RIDGES AS SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR A TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DAYBREAK

FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONG RUN-TO-RUN INSISTENCE ON THIS

DEVELOPMENT...POPS WERE INCREASED MARKEDLY TO CATEGORICAL. IN

ADDITION...WITH LIFT SQUARELY ENTRENCHED IN THE DENDRITIC

LAYER...RATIOS SEEM LIKELY TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL

AVERAGES. FURTHERMORE...WHILE PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE

ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL BROUGHT A WARM TONGUE OF AIR FARTHER

NORTH...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES REALLY NO LONGER

FAVOR THIS WHATSOEVER. AS SUCH...ALL PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGED

OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW ADDED

TO THE GRIDS. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT HEADLINES FOR

THIS SYSTEM ARE A VERY DEFINITE POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS

THE AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. FRIES

 

Thursday

Night

nsn30.png

Chance

Light Snow

Low: 15 °F

Friday

 

sn80.png

Heavy

Snow

High: 24 °F

Friday

Night

nsn60.png

Snow

Likely

Low: 11 °F

Saturday

 

bkn.png

Partly

Sunny

The first part of the discussion was updated at 1:33 pm. The long term hasn't changed since last night. I am sure the heavy snow will be dropped from the afternoon discussion.

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted
NWS still sticking with heavy snow?  Their discussion was updated at 1:33 pm. 

 

THURSDAY NIGHT UNDERCUT MODEL MOS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND

RIDGES AS SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR A TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DAYBREAK

FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONG RUN-TO-RUN INSISTENCE ON THIS

DEVELOPMENT...POPS WERE INCREASED MARKEDLY TO CATEGORICAL. IN

ADDITION...WITH LIFT SQUARELY ENTRENCHED IN THE DENDRITIC

LAYER...RATIOS SEEM LIKELY TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL

AVERAGES. FURTHERMORE...WHILE PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THEECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL BROUGHT A WARM TONGUE OF AIR FARTHER

NORTH...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES REALLY NO LONGER

FAVOR THIS WHATSOEVER. AS SUCH...ALL PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGED

OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW ADDED

TO THE GRIDS. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT HEADLINES FOR

THIS SYSTEM ARE A VERY DEFINITE POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS

THE AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. FRIES

 

Thursday

Night

Chance

Light Snow

Low: 15 °F

Friday

 

Heavy

Snow

High: 24 °F

Friday

Night

Snow

Likely

Low: 11 °F

Saturday

 

Partly

Sunny

I think the timestamp was updated but it still looks like the same discussion they came out with early this morning. They tend to do that a lot with their discussions it seems.

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north pgh

north pgh

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Here is the new discussion hot off the press.

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA246 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH QUITECOLD WIND CHILL VALUES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILLBRING SNOW FRIDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LIGHT SNOW BANDS AND FLURRIES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS REGIONWITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERNI-80 CORRIDOR. WINDS BEGINNING TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ATTHE SURFACE AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FLOW WILLCONTINUE TO TURN OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN HIGHENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILLS AND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INPLACE. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON AFTERNOONREADINGS BUT THIS DID NOT MAKE FOR MAJOR CHANGES OVERNIGHT WITHSINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND BELOW ZERO IN RIDGE LOCATIONS. SNOW AMOUNTSACROSS THE NORTH WERE NOT CHANGED AS A FEW BETTER SNOW BANDSCONTINUE.WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INPLACE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. STILL WELLBELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO-20C. BY LATE AFTERNOON FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BEGIN TO SPREADSNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO REGION BEGINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTTOWARD ZANESVILLE AND WORKING NORTHEAST. STILL LOW CHANCE POPS ASSYSTEM WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DRY LOW LEVELS.&&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OFPITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLEESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COMEBY. BULK OF WHAT SNOW THERE IS SHOULD COME FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHTAS SYSTEM DEPARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DUSTING OR FLURRIES EXPECTEDELSEWHERE.NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR A TIME BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAYWITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO REGION BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON AND END MOST ALL PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILLSTILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO-17C NOT QUITE AS EXTREME.THURSDAY NIGHT UNDERCUT MODEL MOS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ANDRIDGES AS SKIES SHOULD BREAK OUT FOR A TIME AS SURFACE RIDGE AXISMOVES ACROSS REGION.THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS STILL TIMED TO ARRIVE TOWARDDAYBREAK FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THEGREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLRACE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL BREAKOUT JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM QUICKLY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THEMORNING RUSH FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH. SNOW WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARDAS THE DAY PROGRESSES.CAT POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY BUT SNOWAMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO EXACT SPEED AND TRACK OF LOW.BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ACROSSNORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THISFORECAST COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT ANDMODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW.TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH PRECIP TYPEEXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW.&&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ANDCONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHPRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDECLEARING SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHPRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHERAND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT PUSH WILL BRING THECHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATINGTEMPERATURES. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE DISTRICT TUESDAYSNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMINGINTO THE 40S.&&
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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted

I don't know who and who isn't a facebook user on here but NWS Pit has a nice new update on Facebook for storms.

Need to switch best case and worst case scenarios around, and alter likely to say something like storm vaporizes and we get flurries to make it accurate. :snowman:  Thats a cool graphic though. Might have to friend the NWS.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted

18z GFS isn't any better. I'm starting to think maybe that 3-5 stripe they have going through Pittsburgh and south is being generous. They might eventually lower that some more. Still some time left, but not looking good at this point with the majority of the models going drier.

Yeah, since 00z models have gotten drier on every run. Still shows a 1-2 due to ratios though per Cobb Data.

 

At least now I am not tempted to stay up for the 00z models, I'll just check in the morning and either be surprised by an improvement, or glad I got some extra sleep.Question is, if the NAM looks better at 00z can I stick to this? lol

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jwilson

jwilson

Posted
Posted

Yeah, if they are publishing that data for the snow-loving public, best case would align with highest possible amounts of snow.  I agree with you all. :snowwindow:

That said this is looking pretty "meh" to me.  Still three days out, but at this point the models are only getting more accurate and not less so, so confidence in a more significant snow is waning.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted

That's about as fast as you'll see a potential storm completely fall apart this close to it. The 00z GFS will probably have no low at all the way this is going. Lol

Things really did fall apart all at once with this one. Looks like we can forget any sort of phase for this one at this point barring some miracle correction on the models. Now, its just how much can we get from the clipper. Maybe a dusting or so tonight for those of us North of I70, (more south) then probably 1-2 for Friday unless qpf can increase. Clippers with high ratios can surprise. Otherwise, it looks like the only major accumulations from this weeks cold blast will be dollars towards my gas bill. :violin:

 

Next week should be interesting, looks like maybe some WAA snow as we start to moderate some, followed by a lake cutter, then a reload of cold. Hopefully we can squeak something out of that, or at least take heart that we should still have some chances for a few weeks to get something bigger.

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north pgh

north pgh

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I saw this last night. I live about 15 miles south of the band and we had pretty much partly cloudy skies with a few flurries. A friend of mine who lives in the Wexford area didn't go out because the roads were so bad because this band was snowing over top of them.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

Decent snowfall coming back on 12z GFS. Storm more north or more moisture coming in?

Does anyone know what is going on? :facepalm:

Northern stream is stronger this run, so more interaction. Its not much, but gets KPIT to almost .2 with ratios probably running at least 15:1 Also note, its no longer Friday morning, its more afternoon / evening so it could make the drive home a mess. Temps in the teens while the snow is flying so if we can manage to juice it up just a bit more and get a general 2-4 that would be a nice save.

 

Lets see if the Euro is similar to the GFS. Would be nice to see this thing get a little better as we get closer.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Posted

Northern stream is stronger this run, so more interaction. Its not much, but gets KPIT to almost .2 with ratios probably running at least 15:1 Also note, its no longer Friday morning, its more afternoon / evening so it could make the drive home a mess. Temps in the teens while the snow is flying so if we can manage to juice it up just a bit more and get a general 2-4 that would be a nice save.

 

Lets see if the Euro is similar to the GFS. Would be nice to see this thing get a little better as we get closer.

.21 at PIT on the Euro. 2-4 event for my old stomping grounds (or better "grahnds")

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