Digger Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The NWS sure has gone back and forth concerning tomorrow. Yesterday, they had us at an 80% chance of snow. Last night, a 50% chance of snow showers. Now, they're back to an 80% chance of snow again. Meanwhile, AccuWx has held steady with "snow at times with little or no accumulation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Classic set up for us haha! We are going to move that about 80 miles south and we will be looking at 4-6 inches of snow. 18Z GFS has moved it about 80 miles south so it's time to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Classic set up for us haha! We are going to move that about 80 miles south and we will be looking at 4-6 inches of snow. 18Z GFS has moved it about 80 miles south so it's time to lock it in. You called it. Unfortunately, it's only Sunday. Too bad it's not Wednesday or Thursday with this run. I'm going to sound like a broken record, since I bring this up a lot, but these types of systems usually give us a mixed bag. I'd love for the low to track like the 18z is showing right now, but it seems like they tend to track further north than that and we end up in that mix zone like the 12z was showing. We'll see how it goes. Plenty of time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 You called it. Unfortunately, it's only Sunday. Too bad it's not Wednesday or Thursday with this run. I'm going to sound like a broken record, since I bring this up a lot, but these types of systems usually give us a mixed bag. I'd love for the low to track like the 18z is showing right now, but it seems like they tend to track further north than that and we end up in that mix zone like the 12z was showing. We'll see how it goes. Plenty of time yet. I definitely can understand your concern. Even though I am just a 25 minute drive away from Bethel Park, many times our area does not get the complete changeover that you usually get. One good thing is the models are trending colder and NWS Pit has taken the freezing rain and sleet out of the forecast. We are still 4 days out so many things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I definitely can understand your concern. Even though I am just a 25 minute drive away from Bethel Park, many times our area does not get the complete changeover that you usually get. One good thing is the models are trending colder and NWS Pit has taken the freezing rain and sleet out of the forecast. We are still 4 days out so many things can change. Yep. I guess that's part of the fun in tracking these things. A lot can still change. Whatever happens, happens. With all of the disappointments, it makes the storms that actually work out for us that much sweeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 951 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-073- 075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-212300- /O.CON.KPBZ.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130123T1600Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION- JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE- WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...NEW CASTLE... ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY... BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA... BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG... FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON... BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT... MORGANTOWN 951 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE FALLING BACK TOWARD 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...0 TO 10 ABOVE TONIGHT...10 TO 15 ABOVE TUESDAY...3 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL INDICES. THIS COULD RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU DRESS PROPERLY. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Only a dusting so far this morning. Our end of the week storm is looking colder and snowier for most of us. The southern counties will still have mixing issues but they are gradually moving further south toward the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like southern Butler and Beaver counties are getting hit pretty good right now. Nothing in Bethel Park. Just a few flakes earlier. The end of the week storm has been all over the place. The 06z GFS looked bad for all of us and actually trended too far south giving us only very light accumulations. The 12z GFS has us back in business with 6 to 7 inches for a lot of us. I wonder how the Euro is handling this one so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Getting clipped by that heavier band now. Nice big fluff flakes, ground already coated. No ptype worries either for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Looks like southern Butler and Beaver counties are getting hit pretty good right now. Nothing in Bethel Park. Just a few flakes earlier. The end of the week storm has been all over the place. The 06z GFS looked bad for all of us and actually trended too far south giving us only very light accumulations. The 12z GFS has us back in business with 6 to 7 inches for a lot of us. I wonder how the Euro is handling this one so far? GFS looks like .5 QPF up to about I80. Probably all snow verbatim. I don't have access to the Euro, though it might now hurt to sign up for the AccuWeather 30 day free trial for the rest of winter. From what I can gather though, it is a bit slower with the onset of the storm, and also colder, which probably implies a slightly further SE track. Overall sounds like the GFS / Euro are fairly close, at least til 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 From tombo in the Phil thread, we get .4 - .6 on the Euro. Would be pretty solid with high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Getting clipped by that heavier band now. Nice big fluff flakes, ground already coated. No ptype worries either for once. I picked up about 1/2 inch and another heavier band is about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 That band is right over me. Near white-out conditions. 1/8 visibility. Winds blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just drove through downtown. Couldn't see the skyline from the fort Pitt. HEAVY snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 That band is right over me. Near white-out conditions. 1/8 visibility. Winds blowing. Already done here. It only lasted about 5 -10 minutes but put down about 1/4 inch of snow. I now have close to an inch. Looking at the traffic cams it looks like from my area to Cranberry did pretty well. It looks like other areas, mainly south still didn't pick up too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Already done here. It only lasted about 5 -10 minutes but put down about 1/4 inch of snow. I now have close to an inch. Looking at the traffic cams it looks like from my area to Cranberry did pretty well. It looks like other areas, mainly south still didn't pick up too much. You would be correct. Nothing down this way. The radar actually showed a decent band moving over this area, but I only got a few flakes. The sun is peaking through now. When I was looking at the models for today, it looked like mainly north of Pittsburgh was going to get in on some of this. I never really expected much here even though the NWS kept saying 1-2" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Coming up from town, just past PIT, vis went from miles down to a few hundred feet. Two dummies who didn't know enough to slow down when snow sticks to the road met, and I spent 40 minutes sitting in standstill traffic for two miles. Here at home, 1 1/2" on the picnic table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Whiteout conditions here in Bethel Park. Just came from nowhere. Ground already covered in maybe 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Finally under a pretty heavy band right now. Almost whiteout conditions. Have a quick dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Whiteout conditions here in Bethel Park. Just came from nowhere. Ground already covered in maybe 2 minutes. That might be the quickest dusting of snow I have ever gotten! lol Blue skies overhead now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 421 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A SECOND FRONT HAVING CROSSED THE REGION TODAY...A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ZERO EACH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NEARING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HEAVIER SNOW IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE...AND SOME PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES HAVE EVEN APPEARED ON SATELLITE. COLD ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT...AND BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR SO FAR. CONSIDERING PATCHY NATURE OF CLOUDS...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WIDELY VARYING OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. REGARDLESS...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH USUAL COLD LOCATIONS LIKELY DROPPING TO ZERO OR BELOW. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RESUME...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS THE BEST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE RIDGES. CONSIDERING THE VARYING FETCH OFF LAKE ERIE...ADVISORY COUNTIES TO THE NORTH SHOULD EXPECT A GRADIENT WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH AND 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HEALTHY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGES SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE FOR WEATHER FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD ADVECTION BRINGING LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF ZERO AGAIN. WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...A QUICK SYSTEM DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT A (RELATIVE) WARMING TREND AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TIMING. BOTH OF THESE ISSUES WILL FACTOR HEAVILY INTO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE STORM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TO MIX IN STILL EXISTS...AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT CHANCES OF THIS APPEAR LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Was just out grilling dinner (No more grilling outdoors this week) and you can feel the cold wind much more so than earlier today. The arctic air is here. So far our Thur-Fri storm is looking at a solid 3-5 inches if we can keep the mixing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 48 hr snowfall through 108 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (33.05K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not jumping on board yet, but things look okay right now for Friday. We'll see how things go through the week. Always worried about mixing down here, but PIT should be safe at least in terms of temps under the current scenario. I think there's still a chance this cuts too far north into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not jumping on board yet, but things look okay right now for Friday. We'll see how things go through the week. Always worried about mixing down here, but PIT should be safe at least in terms of temps under the current scenario. I think there's still a chance this cuts too far north into the lakes. Just looking at the new Oz Nam it is more south and getting colder. Still some mixing issues but not like the 18z. It was the warmest of the models and it seems to be coming more in line with the others. You are right it is still early but I feel more optimistic. Right now even with the mixing of sleet we would still be looking at a decent accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's funny, the NWS put out a "Snow, heavy at times" forecast for Friday this morning, then the 06z GFS comes out and it doesn't look real impressive. The NAM is still a very nice hit, but that's long range NAM which we all know isn't very reliable. It'll be interesting to see what the 12z GFS shows and if it continues the drier trend or goes back in the other direction. At least, no matter what, we're still getting something out of this potential system no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I saw the 06z looks pretty lousy qpf wise for this now, but that's probably underdone based on just one model run. Looks like the 12z NAM is further south vs last night but still out there for the NAM. After all the slop storms it would really suck to be to far North. It's funny, the NWS put out a "Snow, heavy at times" forecast for Friday this morning, then the 06z GFS comes out and it doesn't look real impressive. The NAM is still a very nice hit, but that's long range NAM which we all know isn't very reliable. It'll be interesting to see what the 12z GFS shows and if it continues the drier trend or goes back in the other direction. At least, no matter what, we're still getting something out of this potential system no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For yesterday's event, I ended up with about 1.25 inches. My temp was 6 on the car this morning. I noticed as I drove South towards work the snow pack quickly lessened. In Greensburg the ground is bare. I can say though, I think the snow pack helped because normally on my drive I go through some areas that are always colder, today though these places didn't have much snow and were actually 1-2 degrees warmer. Interesting to see the effects of snow cover on the various micro climates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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