Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


north pgh

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah, maybe a tricky morning rush hour though. At least the afternoon rush should be fine. Next week's arctic blast doesn't do much for me except to have me brace for the frigid temps. You know how LES can be. Maybe one of us will get lucky and see something worth noting. Otherwise, it's flakes and flurries with the occasional snow shower for most of us. The frigid temps will be the main story. Not a fan of these arctic blasts because usually it's all cold and little snow.

I think we should have some shots at enhanced snowfall with some disturbances that pass by us through the flow and with such cold temps ratios would be good. I would much prefer a big thump followed by the cold but beggars can't be choosers I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with close to an inch on the ground. Of course it was a mix of snow, sleet and had a light glaze on top of ice. It was enough I had to shovel the walk and brush the cars off. On the way to work, I could slowly see the amount on the ground decreasing (I drive south from New Ken area to Greensburg) by the time I got here there is almost nothing on the ground at all. Its likely a completely different world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week.

The warm air almost always wins out from Pittsburgh on South. Then say between Pittsburgh to Kittanning is variable, sometimes its more frozen sometimes not, then say Kittanning North is usually a snow event. No science to back it up, just going off what I have observed over the last several years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week.

The warm air almost always wins out from Pittsburgh on South. Then say between Pittsburgh to Kittanning is variable, sometimes its more frozen sometimes not, then say Kittanning North is usually a snow event. No science to back it up, just going off what I have observed over the last several years.

Yep. Every time we get a storm like this, the first thing that comes to my mind is, "OK, how quick is it going to changeover here?" Usually, the snow is very brief and then slop or rain after that. It's happened many times over the years imby. Usually, whatever snowfall forecast I get from the NWS is way overdone. They usually underestimate that warm tongue and how quickly it can change things over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with an inch of wet snow sleet mix this morning.

The forecast looks boring until late weekend when the cold air arrives.

 

We should have a shot at some lighter snows after the cold moves in and we have a clipper every other day or so. Sometimes those can surprise especially with high ratios. Other than that nothing really big on the map to follow, of course that can change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We should have a shot at some lighter snows after the cold moves in and we have a clipper every other day or so. Sometimes those can surprise especially with high ratios. Other than that nothing really big on the map to follow, of course that can change.

I agree totally. Next week will be a fun week to watch. Too many people do not like cold and lake effect but I will take that over cloudy and cold every day.

We will not have any big storms but even the 1-2 events from lake-effect are at least something. And if we get a clipper it is usually a  1-3 or 2-4 type system with no mixing issues. I am looking forward to it. That is what hats, scarfs and gloves are for.

I say BRRRRRRRing it on! :snowwindow:  :ee:  :snowing:  :shiver:  :ski:

Link to comment
Share on other sites


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1008 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

PAZ021-073-180400-

ALLEGHENY PA-WESTMORELAND PA-

1008 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

AT 1001 PM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF SHIPPINGPORT TO 2 MILES WEST OF BRIDGEVILLE...MOVING

EAST AT 35 MPH.

A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY AND PUT A LIGHT

COATING OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

OAKDALE... IMPERIAL... BRIDGEVILLE...

UPPER SAINT CLAIR... MOON... BETHEL PARK...

MOUNT LEBANON... CARNEGIE... SEWICKLEY...

BALDWIN... BRENTWOOD... ELIZABETH BORO...

HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

I-279 PARKWAY NORTH BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10.

I-579 CROSSTOWN BOULEVARD.

ROUTE 43 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 53.

I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 52.

I-376 PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 84.

I-70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 57.

TOLL 66 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 9.

I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 68.

I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 84.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING

TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER

@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4015 7948 4012 7954 4024 7992 4025 7992

4032 8014 4050 8033 4059 8021 4041 7964

4020 7943

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like Monday could be fun for somebody...........

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
450 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-201000-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-
CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-
GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
450 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL USHER MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY...A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS A COMBINATION OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VERY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models hinting at some decent wintry precipitation Friday. From what I can piece together the Euro is pretty cold, temps in the teens to low 20s and good qpf. Still 6 days out really so a lot can change but it would be nice to see the system trend wetter and keep the serious cold in place. It would make for some solid ratios.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the Thursday night and Friday system the 12z GFS has the classic SWPA slop storm. Although, verbatim it would be a couple inches of snow followed by a pretty significant ice storm (>.25 qpf as zr)

 

Nearer term, looks like the the LES get rolling tomorrow with the help of some energy moving in. Another great discussion by Fries:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN EARNEST SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN CONTINUE THEIR DECLINETOWARD -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE BECOMES MUCH DEEPER AS IT FALLS TO A MUCH LOWERALTITUDE ON THE MODELS. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVELWAVE TO SET TO TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FROM INDIANA TOWARDWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE NEGATIVE OMEGAVALUES OVER A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THIS LAYER EXTENDS FROM ABOUT5-15 KFT...WHICH BISECTS THE DENDRITIC LAYER FAIRLY SQUARELY. THEGFS HAS SOME SATURATION PROBLEMS WITH THIS LAYER...HOWEVER THENAM/SREF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE SUFFICIENT SATURATION OFTHE LAYER TO GENERATE 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES OF QPF CENTERED MAINLYON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYTICAL SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GUIDANCESUGGESTS RATIOS RUNNING IN THE 20-25:1 RANGE...AND HAS CONTINUALLYFAVORED THIS RANGE FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD2-4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT HEAVIERAMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WERE ADDITIONAL LAKEFETCH MAY ENHANCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND QPF.WHILE A WIDESPREAD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...THE REAL LAKEEFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET ALL WOUND BY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOWLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTIONOF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT CONTINUES TO BE LESSTHAN STELLAR. HOWEVER..LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INVERSIONSHEIGHTS WILL BOTH FAVOR STRONG INSTABILITY AND A BETTER INLANDPENETRATION OF LAKE BANDING ON MONDAY NIGHT. INADDITION...INSTABILITY SQUARELY CUTTING THROUGH THE DENDRITICLAYER WITH LAKE TO INVERSION TOP AROUND 7 KFT MONDAY NIGHTFEATURES LAPSE RATES FROM ROUGHLY +2C WATER OVER LAKE ERIE TOABOUT -27C AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. THAT CALCULATES OUT TO 12.7C/KM...WHICH IS FAR IN EXCESS OF BEING ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE. WITHLAKE MOISTURE INPUT AND LIKELY MULTI-LAKE FETCH WORKING ONINSTABILITY OF THAT MAGNITUDE...HEAVY SNOWFALL SEEMS LIKELY FORTHE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. AT THE MOMENT...AMOUNTS AREPROBLEMATIC TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES DOSEEM LIKELY GOING FORWARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.LOW LEVEL FLOW VARIES VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A BIT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THEREGION. THIS WILL LIKELY START TO ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER IN MANY SPOT AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. AS SUCH...WITHSOME NEW SNOW COVER LIKELY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS...FRIGIDTEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO START THE DAY TUESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECASTAREA. MANY AREAS COULD BE BREAKING ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE2009. FRIES
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...