RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes, I just read the discussion. Great write up! Hope this guy or gal stays on with NWS Pitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah, maybe a tricky morning rush hour though. At least the afternoon rush should be fine. Next week's arctic blast doesn't do much for me except to have me brace for the frigid temps. You know how LES can be. Maybe one of us will get lucky and see something worth noting. Otherwise, it's flakes and flurries with the occasional snow shower for most of us. The frigid temps will be the main story. Not a fan of these arctic blasts because usually it's all cold and little snow. I think we should have some shots at enhanced snowfall with some disturbances that pass by us through the flow and with such cold temps ratios would be good. I would much prefer a big thump followed by the cold but beggars can't be choosers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Started out as snow (moderate), before going over to ice (accumulated on my car). Now it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Light snow here in Canonsburg...faintest dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Light Snow here, thin coating so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Snowed very briefly here and now it's all freezing rain. This is what typically happens around here with systems like this. Starts out as snow for a very brief period of time then quickly changes over. Looks like ice may be a problem for me early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Moderate mix of sleet and ZR now.not looking forward to seeing what we wake up to...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just on the northern fringe of the precip. Mostly a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Very, very light. Will have to see if it goes over to snow when the heavier returns come in or it stays a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Now getting more snow than sleet and freezing rain. Big Flakes starting to coat the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still getting freezing rain and it's coming down moderately right now. It's going to be an icy mess here in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ended up with close to an inch on the ground. Of course it was a mix of snow, sleet and had a light glaze on top of ice. It was enough I had to shovel the walk and brush the cars off. On the way to work, I could slowly see the amount on the ground decreasing (I drive south from New Ken area to Greensburg) by the time I got here there is almost nothing on the ground at all. Its likely a completely different world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week. The warm air almost always wins out from Pittsburgh on South. Then say between Pittsburgh to Kittanning is variable, sometimes its more frozen sometimes not, then say Kittanning North is usually a snow event. No science to back it up, just going off what I have observed over the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, woke up to a dusting of snow with a thin layer of ice on top of it. Not too bad really. Just some slick spots here and there this morning. Didn't get the 1-2 the NWS was forecasting, at least around here. The changeover was way too quick for that. Anyway, looks like the next big weather story here will be the arctic blast for early next week. The warm air almost always wins out from Pittsburgh on South. Then say between Pittsburgh to Kittanning is variable, sometimes its more frozen sometimes not, then say Kittanning North is usually a snow event. No science to back it up, just going off what I have observed over the last several years. Yep. Every time we get a storm like this, the first thing that comes to my mind is, "OK, how quick is it going to changeover here?" Usually, the snow is very brief and then slop or rain after that. It's happened many times over the years imby. Usually, whatever snowfall forecast I get from the NWS is way overdone. They usually underestimate that warm tongue and how quickly it can change things over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ended up with an inch of wet snow sleet mix this morning. The forecast looks boring until late weekend when the cold air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ended up with an inch of wet snow sleet mix this morning. The forecast looks boring until late weekend when the cold air arrives. We should have a shot at some lighter snows after the cold moves in and we have a clipper every other day or so. Sometimes those can surprise especially with high ratios. Other than that nothing really big on the map to follow, of course that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 We should have a shot at some lighter snows after the cold moves in and we have a clipper every other day or so. Sometimes those can surprise especially with high ratios. Other than that nothing really big on the map to follow, of course that can change. I agree totally. Next week will be a fun week to watch. Too many people do not like cold and lake effect but I will take that over cloudy and cold every day. We will not have any big storms but even the 1-2 events from lake-effect are at least something. And if we get a clipper it is usually a 1-3 or 2-4 type system with no mixing issues. I am looking forward to it. That is what hats, scarfs and gloves are for. I say BRRRRRRRing it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1008 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013 PAZ021-073-180400- ALLEGHENY PA-WESTMORELAND PA- 1008 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013 ...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES... AT 1001 PM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHIPPINGPORT TO 2 MILES WEST OF BRIDGEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY AND PUT A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OAKDALE... IMPERIAL... BRIDGEVILLE... UPPER SAINT CLAIR... MOON... BETHEL PARK... MOUNT LEBANON... CARNEGIE... SEWICKLEY... BALDWIN... BRENTWOOD... ELIZABETH BORO... HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE... I-279 PARKWAY NORTH BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10. I-579 CROSSTOWN BOULEVARD. ROUTE 43 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 53. I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 52. I-376 PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 84. I-70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 57. TOLL 66 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 9. I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 68. I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 84. PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. LAT...LON 4015 7948 4012 7954 4024 7992 4025 7992 4032 8014 4050 8033 4059 8021 4041 7964 4020 7943 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Snowing HARD? Was this forecasted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Woke up to a nice coating of snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I only got a very light dusting that was barely noticeable. I think I was on the southern end of that line that moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 We get one nice day tomorrow and then the cold comes in. With a little snow flying it will be wintry. It looks like the cold stays now through next weekend and now the 00Z GFS has some snow for next weekend. It is a ways out but more to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Looks like Monday could be fun for somebody........... Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 450 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031- 073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-201000- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER- CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON- GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES- HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- 450 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL USHER MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY...A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS A COMBINATION OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VERY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My goodness, the 6z GFS is bitter, bitter cold. The 850 -20C line dips south of us for almost 30 hours straight. I know that we are currently being projected at lows above zero, but I would imagine that is going to end up less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 My goodness, the 6z GFS is bitter, bitter cold. The 850 -20C line dips south of us for almost 30 hours straight. I know that we are currently being projected at lows above zero, but I would imagine that is going to end up less. If we have snow cover and a clear night with no wind I would bet you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Models hinting at some decent wintry precipitation Friday. From what I can piece together the Euro is pretty cold, temps in the teens to low 20s and good qpf. Still 6 days out really so a lot can change but it would be nice to see the system trend wetter and keep the serious cold in place. It would make for some solid ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 For the Thursday night and Friday system the 12z GFS has the classic SWPA slop storm. Although, verbatim it would be a couple inches of snow followed by a pretty significant ice storm (>.25 qpf as zr) Nearer term, looks like the the LES get rolling tomorrow with the help of some energy moving in. Another great discussion by Fries: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN EARNEST SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN CONTINUE THEIR DECLINETOWARD -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE BECOMES MUCH DEEPER AS IT FALLS TO A MUCH LOWERALTITUDE ON THE MODELS. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVELWAVE TO SET TO TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FROM INDIANA TOWARDWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE NEGATIVE OMEGAVALUES OVER A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THIS LAYER EXTENDS FROM ABOUT5-15 KFT...WHICH BISECTS THE DENDRITIC LAYER FAIRLY SQUARELY. THEGFS HAS SOME SATURATION PROBLEMS WITH THIS LAYER...HOWEVER THENAM/SREF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE SUFFICIENT SATURATION OFTHE LAYER TO GENERATE 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES OF QPF CENTERED MAINLYON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYTICAL SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GUIDANCESUGGESTS RATIOS RUNNING IN THE 20-25:1 RANGE...AND HAS CONTINUALLYFAVORED THIS RANGE FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD2-4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT HEAVIERAMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WERE ADDITIONAL LAKEFETCH MAY ENHANCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND QPF.WHILE A WIDESPREAD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ON MONDAY...THE REAL LAKEEFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET ALL WOUND BY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOWLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTIONOF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT CONTINUES TO BE LESSTHAN STELLAR. HOWEVER..LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INVERSIONSHEIGHTS WILL BOTH FAVOR STRONG INSTABILITY AND A BETTER INLANDPENETRATION OF LAKE BANDING ON MONDAY NIGHT. INADDITION...INSTABILITY SQUARELY CUTTING THROUGH THE DENDRITICLAYER WITH LAKE TO INVERSION TOP AROUND 7 KFT MONDAY NIGHTFEATURES LAPSE RATES FROM ROUGHLY +2C WATER OVER LAKE ERIE TOABOUT -27C AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. THAT CALCULATES OUT TO 12.7C/KM...WHICH IS FAR IN EXCESS OF BEING ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE. WITHLAKE MOISTURE INPUT AND LIKELY MULTI-LAKE FETCH WORKING ONINSTABILITY OF THAT MAGNITUDE...HEAVY SNOWFALL SEEMS LIKELY FORTHE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. AT THE MOMENT...AMOUNTS AREPROBLEMATIC TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES DOSEEM LIKELY GOING FORWARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.LOW LEVEL FLOW VARIES VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A BIT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THEREGION. THIS WILL LIKELY START TO ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER IN MANY SPOT AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. AS SUCH...WITHSOME NEW SNOW COVER LIKELY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS...FRIGIDTEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO START THE DAY TUESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECASTAREA. MANY AREAS COULD BE BREAKING ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE2009. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The NWS sure has gone back and forth concerning tomorrow. Yesterday, they had us at an 80% chance of snow. Last night, a 50% chance of snow showers. Now, they're back to an 80% chance of snow again. Hopefully, this is their final answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Classic set up for us haha! We are going to move that about 80 miles south and we will be looking at 4-6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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