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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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yeah, it seems like Monday Night into Noon Tuesday Now.

It seems it's going back and forth

  • Monday A chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Southwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • New Year's Day Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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I'm still thinking 1-2". It's a very light snow and there's some holes in the radar to our west. We'll see.

I agree, 1-2 seems to be reasonable. NWS discusses why ratios will be 10:1 or lower as well so it would take an uptick in qpf to really push much over 2. I am surprise we have not really had a favorable LES setup yet this winter.

All in all we are looking to have about 2 weeks or so of pretty wintry weather starting with Wednesday after Christmas before we start to moderate again and hopefully re-load the pattern for a better end of January and Feb. I think everyone is at or above normal snowfall for our area despite the mild December.

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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1014 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073-074-076-WVZ023-041-091700-GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...SHARON... HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY... FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY... BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE... REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE... MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING... FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA... GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN... LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION... NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 1014 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

...ICY ROADS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...THERE ARE SEVERAL COUNTIES THAT ARE REPORTING ICY CONDITIONS AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION...LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALSO HAVE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES. DRIVERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ON THE ROADS TODAY AND BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS.

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I know I'm the complete opposite of most of u....but I'm loving the pattern the next few days...guess I'm now outed as a snow-hater/wamista.

Nah, I like it too. It'll be nice to have a few warm days. It's good to get a break from the cold every once in a while. But, I'll still be tracking the potential threat for next week hoping that it works out for us. Still thinking that mixing will be a concern if it hits us at all. Right now, it looks like the bulk of it may stay to our south and east anyway. We'll see as we get closer.

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Dense Fog Advisory


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

959 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076-WVZ023-041-121100-

/O.CON.KPBZ.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T1400Z/

GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-

JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-

WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-

TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...SHARON...

HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...

FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...

BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...

REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...

MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...

FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...

WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...

MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...

JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...

NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...

POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...

MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

959 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULARLY LOW SPOTS AND AROUND

AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND.

* HAZARDS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH

AREAS OF DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE COMMONPLACE LATER THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE

REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...

USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

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Looking like a nice surprise late tomorrow night and Wed. morning. 

I am guessing maybe 1-2 inches but the rain/snow mix moves right over us.

More so looking forward to the cold to move in early next week and some potential clippers and lake effect during the week.

Winter is back.

Thoughts?

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Looking like a nice surprise late tomorrow night and Wed. morning. 

I am guessing maybe 1-2 inches but the rain/snow mix moves right over us.

More so looking forward to the cold to move in early next week and some potential clippers and lake effect during the week.

Winter is back.

Thoughts?

I'm not sure what to make of the little possible event tonight, NWS seems pretty bearish about any snow in the last update. The NAM has some decent precip in the area, but temps are likely an issue. Just looking at the Cobb Data it appears most of the precipitation would fall as snow then after the bulk has passed we warm up. Verbatim NAM is showing 2-3 inches. 6z GFS is similar.

 

I am hoping to cash in on some LES out of the next Arctic outbreak and some lake enhanced snows if we get some favorable clipper tracks. Models have also been hinting at a storm somewhere along the east coast around Martin Luther King day but who gets affected by that is still pretty up in the air I think. At this point it looks pretty far off the coast for us to see anything.

 

One thing I have read in some other Sub Forums is that this is a pattern that something can just pop up in the 4-5 day range. I'm not sure how true that is relative to average 4- 5 day flip flops but would be nice to see happen.

 

There is certainly no chance of snow in the mid 60s like we had recently, so hopefully we can get something while the cold is here.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1129 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

OHZ041-PAZ013>016-020>023-073-075-160030-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0002.130116T0000Z-130116T1500Z/

COLUMBIANA-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-

ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...

EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...NEW CASTLE...

ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...

BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...

BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...

PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...

FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...

JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...

POINT MARION

1129 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10

AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS....1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF

ICE POSSIBLE FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO

SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING

RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK

PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

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Looks like about an inch with some mixing for most of us. Whatever falls will likely melt tomorrow so if we do get ice it probably won't be around long.

 

Hopefully we can get some snow when the arctic front goes through Sunday, would be pretty lousy having highs in the teens and twenties with bare ground.

Yeah, maybe a tricky morning rush hour though. At least the afternoon rush should be fine.

Next week's arctic blast doesn't do much for me except to have me brace for the frigid temps. You know how LES can be. Maybe one of us will get lucky and see something worth noting. Otherwise, it's flakes and flurries with the occasional snow shower for most of us. The frigid temps will be the main story. Not a fan of these arctic blasts because usually it's all cold and little snow.

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Another very detailed discussion by Fries at NWS Pit

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IMPENDING...

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SEEMINGLY COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS IN
TERMS OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS FINALLY STARTING
TO COME DOWN. HOWEVER...WHILE THIS FORECASTER WOULD LOVE NOTHING
MORE THAN TO TYPE THAT THINGS DO NOT LOOK AS BAD AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...QUITE THE OPPOSITE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE.

MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WERE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OF THE NEW 18Z GUIDANCE...AND
IT INITIALIZED TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE OVER VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE 18Z GFS TRENDED DECIDEDLY COLDER AT THE SURFACE AND 850
MB FROM ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT EVEN THAT WAS STILL TOO
WARM...ALBEIT FAIRLY LOCK STEP WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. ALL THIS LEADS
TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST THAT WOULD BE NO LESS WINTRY THAN
WHAT COMES OUT OF ANY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ADDING TO THE NECESSARY
FORECAST TILT TOWARD THE COLD END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 20F AND
25F AT THE MOMENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WET BULBING COULD DROP MANY
PLACES INTO THE 20S AFTER PRECIPITATION ONSET. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALL GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT
FOR TEMPERATURES.

DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LAYER WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS UPON THE FORECAST. FIRST OF ALL...PRECIPITATION ONSET WAS
DELAYED A FEW HOURS FROM THAT WHICH GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS WHERE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE MAY
IMPACT THINGS...LIKE WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AWAY
FROM TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTATIONS...AND GUIDANCE
THAT IS CONTINUALLY SHOWING A WARM INTRUSION ALOFT...NOT TO
MENTION GOOD CONSENSUS FROM ALL MODELS ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE HIGHER QPF IN
THE RIDGES...AS WELL AS MORE SOLID/FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS BREAKS DOWN AS SUCH:

COLD AIR SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO GARRETT AND AT LEAST EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY JUDGING BY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FROM MESONETS. IT
SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT THIS COLD AIR WILL MODERATE
ANYTIME SOON. WITH FLAT TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS AND QPF VALUES
RUNNING UP ABOVE 0.50 OF AN INCH...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. THESE AREAS
WERE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PRESTON
COUNTY SEEMS TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT ANIMAL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WERE LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING AROUND ONSET ON THE MESONET. WHILE WET
BULBING MAY BRING THEM DOWN...A LACK OF UPSTREAM RIDGES TO LOCK
COLD AIR INTO PLACE MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. WHILE SOME ICING IS
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN...ACHIEVING ENOUGH TO PROMPT AN ICE STORM
WARNING WAS NOT. AS SUCH...PRESTON COUNTY REMAINS WITH THE RIDGES
OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE IN THE ADVISORY.

FROM THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN OUR AREA TOWARD
MORGANTOWN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE STARTED
TO COME IN...AND MORGANTOWN HAS DROPPED TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE A COATING OF ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BEFORE A BIT OF WARMER AIR COMES IN...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE ADVISORY.

FARTHER NORTH...THE WARM INTRUSION ALOFT QUICKLY GETS CUT OFF.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BY THE TIME YOU GET TO PITTSBURGH TO NEW
PHILADELPHIA LINE SUGGEST A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 0C
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 TO
-1C. WITH THIS TYPE OF A PROFILE...SNOW WOULD SEEMINGLY BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW TRACK OF
THE GFS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND THE NAM ACROSS GREENE COUNTY WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF SOME WARMER AIR WOULD BE
LIKELY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN STILL
SEEMS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL AS SNOW...A MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CUT
THE ACCUMULATIONS. USING A 4-6:1 RATIO ACROSS THE CORRIDOR
RESULTED IN 1-2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIGHT ICING.

EVEN STILL FARTHER NORTH ALONG I-80...PROFILES LOOK TO STAY WELL
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW UNTIL RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...QPF VALUES AND LIFT ARE LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...MORE
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. AS
SUCH...LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WERE CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST...WITH
SOME SHOT AT MIXING WITH SLEET BRIEFLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE CHOPPED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WE START WELL BELOW ANY AND ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FLAT
LINE TEMPERATURES WERE CARRIED MOST EVERYWHERE...AND ALL HEADLINES
WERE CONTINUED OR EXPANDED. FRIES

 

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