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Central PA - Is it really looking like Christmas?

NortheastPAWx

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the station is about 6-7 miles west of York. They get some epic radiational cooling nights out there.

Yea if you watch the hourly obs there (THV) on calm clear evenings you can see temperatures drop nearly 10 degrees or more in an hour right after sunset during the wintertime due to its location

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

I am confident Central PA is going to get some good snows. GFS sucks and it trending west finally, EURO well we all know the EURO (HUGE), JMA was big, and the RGEM which is the first 48 hrs of GGEM is way west and looks to be almost like euro.

I_nw_r1_EST_2012110512_048.png

On this we agree, but I feel you need to add this caveat: Good snows for November. I really have a hard time seeing anyone getting over 7" of snow, given the marginal setup. Call me overly cautious, but I'd rather bust too low then too high.

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

On this we agree, but I feel you need to add this caveat: Good snows for November. I really have a hard time seeing anyone getting over 7" of snow, given the marginal setup. Call me overly cautious, but I'd rather bust too low then too high.

I consider 3" good snow for this time of year yes lol. But I can see some places 6-9" probably somewhere between Gettysburg and Poconos. Though most widespread will be 3-6" But hey that is like 20-40% of last winters total so ya. haha

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

On this we agree, but I feel you need to add this caveat: Good snows for November. I really have a hard time seeing anyone getting over 7" of snow, given the marginal setup. Call me overly cautious, but I'd rather bust too low then too high.

Agreed (except of course for favored, elevated areas). But I'll take a good 3" snow in early November. Puts me that much closer to my 88.5". ;)

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

ok fixed enough... lets try this again

While some of the models have been showing snowfall potential for eastern PA with the upcoming midweek storm, I took a look at snowfall data for the month of November in Harrisburg for what we have on record. I considered 3” to be a cut off for looking at significant November snow. There have been 19 out of 123 Novembers (124 if counting 2012) with snowfall record that have had a monthly total of 3” or more. 1995 was the last time we saw significant snow in November. In fact, only twice in the last 25 years (not counting 2012 so far) that Harrisburg has recorded more than 2" of snow in November (1995 and 1987).

Here are the top years with 3" or more in November at MDT:

15.4" 1953

10.2" 1938

9.7" 1987

9.7" 1967

8.8" 1971

8.4" 1908

8.1" 1995

7.8" 1892

7.2" 1898

5.9" 1972

4.6" 1955

4.5" 1962

4.0" 1980

4.0" 1978

3.7" 1961

3.0" 1968

3.0" 1952

3.0" 1911

3.0" 1910

I then looked at the monthly reports for each of those years and determined that there have been 22 days in which daily snowfall totals have equaled or exceeded 3”. If you add the 5.5” from October 29, 2011 that means we have had 23 days in the last 123-124 years where Harrisburg has seen 3” or more of snowfall in a day prior to December 1st.

Here are the dates with accumulations of 3" or more:

11/3/1962 4.0"

11/6/1953 6.5"

11/7/1953 8.9"

11/9/1892 4.8"

11/10/1987 4.3"

11/11/1987 4.8"

11/12/1968 3.0"

11/14/1908 7.6"

11/15/1911 3.0"

11/17/1967 3.1"

11/17/1980 4.0"

11/19/1955 4.6"

11/20/1961 3.4"

11/24/1938 6.8"

11/24/1971 6.0"

11/25/1938 3.4"

11/27/1978 4.0"

11/28/1892 3.0"

11/29/1995 3.1"

11/30/1972 5.5"

11/30/1967 6.4"

11/30/1898 3.5"

This storm could make it the 4th earliest snowfall of 3" or more on record with earliest coming last year. Back to back years with early season snowfall around here is pretty significant.

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

ok fixed enough... lets try this again

While some of the models have been showing snowfall potential for eastern PA with the upcoming midweek storm, I took a look at snowfall data for the month of November in Harrisburg for what we have on record. I considered 3” to be a cut off for looking at significant November snow. There have been 19 out of 123 Novembers (124 if counting 2012) with snowfall record that have had a monthly total of 3” or more. 1995 was the last time we saw significant snow in November. In fact, only twice in the last 25 years (not counting 2012 so far) that Harrisburg has recorded more than 2" of snow in November (1995 and 1987).

Here are the top years with 3" or more in November at MDT:

15.4" 1953

10.2" 1938

9.7" 1987

9.7" 1967

8.8" 1971

8.4" 1908

8.1" 1995

7.8" 1892

7.2" 1898

5.9" 1972

4.6" 1955

4.5" 1962

4.0" 1980

4.0" 1978

3.7" 1961

3.0" 1968

3.0" 1952

3.0" 1911

3.0" 1910

I then looked at the monthly reports for each of those years and determined that there have been 22 days in which daily snowfall totals have equaled or exceeded 3”. If you add the 5.5” from October 29, 2011 that means we have had 23 days in the last 123-124 years where Harrisburg has seen 3” or more of snowfall in a day prior to December 1st.

Here are the dates with accumulations of 3" or more:

11/3/1962 4.0"

11/6/1953 6.5"

11/7/1953 8.9"

11/9/1892 4.8"

11/10/1987 4.3"

11/11/1987 4.8"

11/12/1968 3.0"

11/14/1908 7.6"

11/15/1911 3.0"

11/17/1967 3.1"

11/17/1980 4.0"

11/19/1955 4.6"

11/20/1961 3.4"

11/24/1938 6.8"

11/24/1971 6.0"

11/25/1938 3.4"

11/27/1978 4.0"

11/28/1892 3.0"

11/29/1995 3.1"

11/30/1972 5.5"

11/30/1967 6.4"

11/30/1898 3.5"

This storm could make it the 4th earliest snowfall of 3" or more on record with earliest coming last year. Back to back years with early season snowfall around here is pretty significant.

great info, thank you.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

ok fixed enough... lets try this again

While some of the models have been showing snowfall potential for eastern PA with the upcoming midweek storm, I took a look at snowfall data for the month of November in Harrisburg for what we have on record. I considered 3” to be a cut off for looking at significant November snow. There have been 19 out of 123 Novembers (124 if counting 2012) with snowfall record that have had a monthly total of 3” or more. 1995 was the last time we saw significant snow in November. In fact, only twice in the last 25 years (not counting 2012 so far) that Harrisburg has recorded more than 2" of snow in November (1995 and 1987).

Here are the top years with 3" or more in November at MDT:

15.4" 1953

10.2" 1938

9.7" 1987

9.7" 1967

8.8" 1971

8.4" 1908

8.1" 1995

7.8" 1892

7.2" 1898

5.9" 1972

4.6" 1955

4.5" 1962

4.0" 1980

4.0" 1978

3.7" 1961

3.0" 1968

3.0" 1952

3.0" 1911

3.0" 1910

I then looked at the monthly reports for each of those years and determined that there have been 22 days in which daily snowfall totals have equaled or exceeded 3”. If you add the 5.5” from October 29, 2011 that means we have had 23 days in the last 123-124 years where Harrisburg has seen 3” or more of snowfall in a day prior to December 1st.

Here are the dates with accumulations of 3" or more:

11/3/1962 4.0"

11/6/1953 6.5"

11/7/1953 8.9"

11/9/1892 4.8"

11/10/1987 4.3"

11/11/1987 4.8"

11/12/1968 3.0"

11/14/1908 7.6"

11/15/1911 3.0"

11/17/1967 3.1"

11/17/1980 4.0"

11/19/1955 4.6"

11/20/1961 3.4"

11/24/1938 6.8"

11/24/1971 6.0"

11/25/1938 3.4"

11/27/1978 4.0"

11/28/1892 3.0"

11/29/1995 3.1"

11/30/1972 5.5"

11/30/1967 6.4"

11/30/1898 3.5"

This storm could make it the 4th earliest snowfall of 3" or more on record with earliest coming last year. Back to back years with early season snowfall around here is pretty significant.

Thanks for the data; I ran the average and came to 6.5". So if someone felt coerced to give an early number, 3" - 6" would seem reasonable, but mention that non-paved surfaces would see the most accumulations.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the data; I ran the average and came to 6.5". So if someone felt coerced to give an early number, 3" - 6" would seem reasonable, but mention that non-paved surfaces would see the most accumulations.

I don't think ground temperatures would be that great of an issue up here, especially at night. No sun for 11 days, and we've struggled to crack 40* since Friday.

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

FYI I'm all in if the 12z EURO holds serve.

EDIT: It's going east. CTP is right, the ridge axis is too far east, so this is going to be a non-event for PA.

That was a low blow. But it is just one slip up, could change. I just got my confidence smashed though. Then again now like 5 GFS members are west and RGEM/GGEM is west. This storm is stupid and I hate these weather models.

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