canderson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Johnstown departure in 8hrs. I am so pumped! This sentence had never before been uttered by man before Zach this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Johnstown departure in 8hrs. I am so pumped! I don't think I have ever seen someone excited about coming to Johnstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I grew up on Dupont St. Family lives in Riverside now. Been telling them they are in for some real snow this weekend, but they don't seem to believe me, lol. The Moxham Lumber end of Moxham. I'm on Park, at the other end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This sentence had never before been uttered by man before Zach this morning. I don't think I have ever seen someone excited about coming to Johnstown. i was thinking the same thing. You can feel the excitement in his posts! I bet that boy has perma-Grin For here in MDT, i wouldn't be shocked to squeek out a dusting on X-Mas eve late or early Am on X-Mas. We just need the temperature to work with us. And they have been trending just a tad colder each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think I have ever seen someone excited about coming to Johnstown. i was thinking the same thing. You can feel the excitement in his posts! I bet that boy has perma-Grin For here in MDT, i wouldn't be shocked to squeek out a dusting on X-Mas eve late or early Am on X-Mas. We just need the temperature to work with us. And they have been trending just a tad colder each day. lol one of my best friends who I played baseball with at Point Park U in the 80s was from J-town and we loved going there for a weekend away because his mom was an AMAZING homestyle cook and his old man was generous with the beer. So we said it, lol. Anyway, I am a bit surprised at the Euro's depiction of 3-5 of snow here Xmas morn. I am not ready to break out the pipe and croon with Marjorie Reynolds quite yet of course that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I guess I am missing something here but the HPC snowfall prob maps have us in a mod risk day one for 4 or more inches and a slight risk for 8 or more. The hell? What are they basing that on? Definitely not the NAM, it's not bullish at all. The GFS? The SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Whoa, latest from CTP: Changed Discussion -- 9AM UPDATE... VERY TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE LAST INFLUENCES OF THE COLD HIGH THAT GAVE US SOME BRIEF FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT ARE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST...AS CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE DEEP STORM AND STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE OCCLUSION/WAVY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE SWRN MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MID DAY...REACHING MY NERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AND 6PM. IT MAY INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/WET SNOW AS EVAP COOLING ALLOWS US TO CHILL TO WET BULB ZERO FOR A TIME...BUT TEMPS ALOFT ARE WARM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NE MTNS...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. IT`S A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM THAT INITIALLY WILL BRING RAIN TO ALL OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THINGS GET COMPLICATED LATER TONIGHT WHEN ALL MODELS HINT AT A SECONDARY STORM FORMING AT THE TRIPLE POINT AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS UP THRU NERN PA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH A RAPID INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...WITH A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM MY NERN ZONES DOWN THRU THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. 06Z GEFS THREATS PAGE SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE NWRN 2/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA...INCLUDING EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. THESE RAIN EVENTS THAT CHANGE TO SNOW GENERALLY DO NOT BRING ACCUM SNOWS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST AREA...BUT THIS MAY BE THAT 1 IN A 100 OR SO STORM THAT COULD HAVE PEOPLE WAKING UP TO A WINTER WONDERLAND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT WE PLAN TO WAIT FOR THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES BEFORE A FINAL DECISION ON WHAT KIND HEADLINES...IF ANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME SEEMS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY SNOWS FROM NERN PA DOWN THROUGH ABOUT THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...AND SOUTHWESTWARD. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY CHANGE THE WATCH OVER THE NW TO A WARNING. THEY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE DEFORMATION/CHANGEOVER BAND LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT LAKE EFFECT WILL GIVE THEM SIG SNOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Woah, indeed. Good luck to you guys, it'll be fun watching from down here in the valley how you all make out. We want pictures! Also, that write-up mentions the "TRIPLE POINT" - what is that exactly? I've never heard that term before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Whoa, latest from CTP: That is a very well-written, and somewhat bullish AFD by CTP. Not very often do they get that excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Woah, indeed. Good luck to you guys, it'll be fun watching from down here in the valley how you all make out. We want pictures! Also, that write-up mentions the "TRIPLE POINT" - what is that exactly? I've never heard that term before. It basically is the intersection of an occluded, warm, and cold front.... which serves as a focal point for increased lifting. You'll hear it used more-so during severe weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Woah, indeed. Good luck to you guys, it'll be fun watching from down here in the valley how you all make out. We want pictures! Also, that write-up mentions the "TRIPLE POINT" - what is that exactly? I've never heard that term before. That is a very well-written, and somewhat bullish AFD by CTP. Not very often do they get that excited. It basically is the intersection of an occluded, warm, and cold front.... which serves as a focal point for increased lifting. You'll hear it used more-so during severe weather events. Yeah never really see too much triple point talk now but it's usually a severe weather thing. Seems like the Lower Susquehanna Valley has to deal with them more. I sort of get the feeling that CTP is a bit spooked about late tonight. Man, does the 12Z GFS look freaking beautiful for the post Xmas storm. Won't get fooled again tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Damn. Putting it all out there, CTP: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1226 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024-025-034-037-041-042-045-046-210130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/ POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...EMPORIUM...RENOVO... DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN... ALTOONA...BEDFORD...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE... LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT 1226 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND FALL HEAVY AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT TRAVEL WILL BE FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRIDAY TROUGH MID DAY. THE SNOW MAY LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATER FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...BLANKET AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT... WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE AT [email protected] POST TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET USING THE HASH TAG C...T...P...W...X. && $$ LA CORTE/STEINBUGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I sort of get the feeling that CTP is a bit spooked about late tonight. Forecasting the mesoscale band that is expected to develop on the tail end of the precipitation is tough... not so much its placement or timing, but the fact it will be a race with the influx of colder air from the west. The thin band of precip could be heavy enough on the leading edge of the cold air to fall as snow and lead to a quick dumping of an inch or two. We'll have to watch for this band to develop on radar late tonight. We could see a touch of sleet and snow to start as well. With some dry air in place (already seeing virga), we could see enough evaporational cooling to create a semi-isothermal layer around 0°C up through 750mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Forecasting the mesoscale band that is expected to develop on the tail end of the precipitation is tough... not so much its placement or timing, but the fact it will be a race with the influx of colder air from the west. The thin band of precip could be heavy enough on the leading edge of the cold air to fall as snow and lead to a quick dumping of an inch or two. We'll have to watch for this band to develop on radar late tonight. We could see a touch of sleet and snow to start as well. With some dry air in place (already seeing virga), we could see enough evaporational cooling to create a semi-isothermal layer around 0°C up through 750mb or so. Was wondering about a bit of sleet and snow at the start also. The Euro seems bullish on the snow tonight, so got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How is jst in same adv as state college? Winds 10-20 mph gust to 30... Ya ok. More like 25-35 gusting to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There seems to be a lot of counter arguments to decisions by the CTP NWS on this thread so far this winter. There are reasons behind their forecasts and advisories; it is a very infrequent occurence that the actual worst case scenarios on the models play out, especially for wind. Often post-events the general reality was a more benign scenario than some of the model extreme prognostics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There seems to be a lot of counter arguments to decisions by the CTP NWS on this thread so far this winter. There are reasons behind their forecasts and advisories; it is a very infrequent occurence that the actual worst case scenarios on the models play out, especially for wind. Often post-events the general reality was a more benign scenario than some of the model extreme prognostics. It's going to be windier than 10-20mph... LWX now has high wind watches out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There is a good deal of model output suggesting that the precip begins as snow in the area as well as end with it. The EURO actually printed a front end thump of a few inches from 4-7pm or so... The GEFS also has front end snow. So let's try to look at the observations and see if we'll get some front end stuff! 12z EURO 4-7pm snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I see snowflakes mixing in with the rain here in altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here is my calls for selected cities. JST: 6-10" winds 25-35 gusting to 55 AOO: 2-4" winds 20-30 gusting to 50 UNV: 2-4" winds 15-25 gusting to 45 MDT: Squalls possible C-1" winds 25-35 gusting to 55 IPT: 1-3" winds 15-25 gusting to 45 The winds will be worst right after the front then again during the days of Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It is going to take a bit of time for MDT to really see the high gusts after the rain ends... Lake Effect snows are a wild animal... so much unpredictability since you could see 6"+ then drive a few miles and there be nothing but flurries. Too much bust potential right now which is why I believe NWS is holding back snowfall forecast for JST/etc being that far away from the lakes. If winds end up a few degrees off of what the models/forecast have been predicting, it can be a major difference in major snow vs no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anyone look at the obs in Indiana and Illinois? Gusts currently 40-45 knots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Getting sleet with a few wet snowflakes mixed in here in Toftrees (State College) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anyone look at the obs in Indiana and Illinois? Gusts currently 40-45 knots! Yeah its really howling out there! Let's play "Can you find the Low?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Snow mixing in with the rain here in Brownstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It is going to take a bit of time for MDT to really see the high gusts after the rain ends... Lake Effect snows are a wild animal... so much unpredictability since you could see 6"+ then drive a few miles and there be nothing but flurries. Too much bust potential right now which is why I believe NWS is holding back snowfall forecast for JST/etc being that far away from the lakes. If winds end up a few degrees off of what the models/forecast have been predicting, it can be a major difference in major snow vs no snow. Distance from the lakes doesn't matter in JST, they get elevation-enhanced snow there. Good analogy on lake effect snow being a wild animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i have been oustide the past couple hours, if i didn't know any better i would think its going to snow, it certainly looks and feels that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Distance from the lakes doesn't matter in JST, they get elevation-enhanced snow there. Good analogy on lake effect snow being a wild animal. Correct. Orographic lift ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Almost the whole eastern half of the nation is under some sorta wind product. Except us. This reminds me of the time when nothing was issued and then panels were flying off of Beaver Stadium haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For those of you participating in the Precipitation Identification Near the Ground (PING) project: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/phone.html Almost the whole eastern half of the nation is under some sorta wind product. Except us. This reminds me of the time when nothing was issued and then panels were flying off of Beaver Stadium haha. What event was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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