2001kx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 HPC map w/ more detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 CTP discussion is an interesting read. Yea i was about to say. They did specifically mention why the WS watch over the LES watch. OPTED FOR WINTER STORM AS OPPOSED TO LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES AS LAKE EFFECT APPEARS SECONDARY TO INITIAL PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC/DEFORMATION SNOWS...ALONG WITH IMPACTS ASSOC WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FIRST SIGNIFICANT/PLOWABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. As for your question.. if we do indeed get a fast changeover and have ample precip remaining to work with, then yes totalling the synoptic and any LES I could definitely see 3-4" overall totals in our area. Certainly an interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm pretty sure State College would lock the 18Z GFS solution right now. Of course, it would be better if it was modeling hour 20 instead of hour 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ahah eastern's gonna love this, winter storm watches issued in NWS Pit's CWA for their northern tier counties. Getting a little angry over here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'd like to reiterate how much I hate the GD hills some call mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice AFD by CTP this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC map w/ more detail Did you make those yourself? That's great. Thanks. Not that I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm pretty sure State College would lock the 18Z GFS solution right now. Of course, it would be better if it was modeling hour 20 instead of hour 200. Wow, no kidding. But yeah, 200 hours. Also, the trend for late Thursday night changeover on the GFS and NAM were less favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm in Moxham I grew up on Dupont St. Family lives in Riverside now. Been telling them they are in for some real snow this weekend, but they don't seem to believe me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Did you make those yourself? That's great. Thanks. Not that I buy it. I just imported the KML file from HPC into google earth and took a screenshot. Yeah these situations usually dont work out as shown for our area but i am hopeful as always!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Howdy! Figured I would stop in for one of the first big events of the season. I miss it, was home for only 3 days, haha its all I was allowed and was hoping for snow, but nope! I miss PA wx for sure, and I'm def getting a little depressed not gunna lie. I miss weather in general, never get much time anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Howdy! Figured I would stop in for one of the first big events of the season. I miss it, was home for only 3 days, haha its all I was allowed and was hoping for snow, but nope! I miss PA wx for sure, and I'm def getting a little depressed not gunna lie. I miss weather in general, never get much time anymore Hey Brandon!! I just happened to go and look at the NWS forecast for Shinglehouse and saw nothing but snow, snow, snow! Too bad you can't be home to enjoy it. Of course, I won't be able to enjoy it either since the downsloping of Blue Mountain will likely eat it all up before it ever can reach here. I haven't seen you on FB recently. Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hey guys......did anyone happen to notice that in the 18z run today, 2-meter temps over us go below freezing right before the mini snow begins on Christmas Eve.....and then stay continuously below freezing day and night through the end of the run which is Jan 4th. If that were to verify, that would certainly be a very prolonged sub-freezing period for our area....of course with the snow and ice storm thrown in for good measure on the 27th. I just think the sub-freezing temps continuously are pretty impressive and would go a long way towards freezing up all the area lakes and ponds. I just hope we can eek out 1" of snow Christmas Eve and officially have a white Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You don't see this METAR everyday. Wicked winds at Dallas/Fort Worth tonight KDFW 200336Z 29031G39KT 2SM HZ BLDU OVC027 22/01 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 29039/0336 SFC VIS 3 TSE36 OCNL LTGIC DSNT NE-E TS MOV E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Oh my goodness GFS secondaries the post X-mas storm to the coast at pretty much the right time. Has a long duration storm and it's a beauty for C-PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tonights Euro decides to pull a complete different wave out of it's hat for X-mas morning. Pretty weak low that tracks Lower Lakes but thermally it appears to remain cold enough to allow a period of moderate snow for most of Central PA. A few tenths of QPF for the likes of JST, UNV, IPT, and MDT. The post X-mas storm is now a southern Apps runner to eastern PA and Hudson Valley type track (still too warm) and just a single low with no secondaries. So to briefly summarize major models, GFS/GGEM both feature a mainly snow/some mix event with coastal transfer while the Euro has a Gulf low that runs the Apps with mainly rain still.. but a good shift east from the 12z run. It appears that UKMET and Euro have the preceding Xmas wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tonights Euro decides to pull a complete different wave out of it's hat for X-mas morning. Pretty weak low that tracks Lower Lakes but thermally it appears to remain cold enough to allow a period of moderate snow for most of Central PA. A few tenths of QPF for the likes of JST, UNV, IPT, and MDT. The post X-mas storm is now a southern Apps runner to eastern PA and Hudson Valley type track (still too warm) and just a single low with no secondaries. So to briefly summarize major models, GFS/GGEM both feature a mainly snow/some mix event with coastal transfer while the Euro has a Gulf low that runs the Apps with mainly rain still.. but a good shift east from the 12z run. It appears that UKMET and Euro have the preceding Xmas wave. Euro is on it's own and when it usually is, it is wrong. Ala Boxing day 2012, Early Nov this season tease, and countless other events last year that euro crushed us but, no other model then euro changed course. Also no watch/warning fro JST oh well snow map has 6.7" Good enough. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 8 out of 12 members say yes sir. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zsnowf186.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro is on it's own and when it usually is, it is wrong. Ala Boxing day 2012, Early Nov this season tease, and countless other events last year that euro crushed us but, no other model then euro changed course. Also no watch/warning fro JST oh well snow map has 6.7" Good enough. lol Haha I wouldn't worry too much about it, your in pretty much the best part of Cambria anyways. I think they haven't pulled the trigger on a watch cuz Cambria might not verify warning amounts county-wide. Most of the county above US 22 (save for maybe the very high ridges on the Blair/Cambria line) will probably have advisory amounts in general, while the warning snows focus on the southern part of the county and specifically that ridge line that includes like Seven Springs. I'll bet those folks see at least 12-15" from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Haha I wouldn't worry too much about it, your in pretty much the best part of Cambria anyways. I think they haven't pulled the trigger on a watch cuz Cambria might not verify warning amounts county-wide. Most of the county above US 22 (save for maybe the very high ridges on the Blair/Cambria line) will probably have advisory amounts in general, while the warning snows focus on the southern part of the county and specifically that ridge line that includes like Seven Springs. I'll bet those folks see at least 12-15" from this. I don't understand that at all though. So you are telling me that if half the county got a foot in a storm but, the other half 4" no warning? That seems odd. Why don't the do the split warning? Put half the county in a warning other half in adv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Johnstown departure in 8hrs. I am so pumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't understand that at all though. So you are telling me that if half the county got a foot in a storm but, the other half 4" no warning? That seems odd. Why don't the do the split warning? Put half the county in a warning other half in adv? Maybe my explanation of US 22 and below getting warning snow is using too much of the county. I think there will be a couple locations that will get there (primarily southern part of the county) but overall alot of advisory amounts. Confidence is high most likely on a high end advisory but not on widespread warning amounts. CTP just updated their snowmap btw, now having pretty much all of Cambria 4-6 and confining warning totals to Somerset. It appears that when the LES/upslope regime focuses heavily on Somerset and they are likely the last places to be snowing when this event starts winding down. But like I said, your in the best part of the county, and Brownstown is on the hill.. so you'll be fine. Its gonna beat the heck out of Shippensburg thats for sure haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I hope it rains on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Whose ready for a late december gully washer..new nam showing lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Maybe my explanation of US 22 and below getting warning snow is using too much of the county. I think there will be a couple locations that will get there (primarily southern part of the county) but overall alot of advisory amounts. Confidence is high most likely on a high end advisory but not on widespread warning amounts. CTP just updated their snowmap btw, now having pretty much all of Cambria 4-6 and confining warning totals to Somerset. It appears that when the LES/upslope regime focuses heavily on Somerset and they are likely the last places to be snowing when this event starts winding down. But like I said, your in the best part of the county, and Brownstown is on the hill.. so you'll be fine. Its gonna beat the heck out of Shippensburg thats for sure haha. Ya my call for my grandmas house is 5-8" maybe up to 10". Shippensburg my see a dusting.. maybe an inch if a squall comes through. I am liking both Christmas and post Christmas events even more now. Euro Ens looks like GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Near blizzard or blizzard conditions Friday night for JST.. ba da dut dut duhhhh I'm loving it... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hubba hubba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So 6Z GFS throws a curve ball and is ots when post Christmas storm. lol Also WTF is this the dang polar vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Why are zone forecasts so different from point forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Why are zone forecasts so different from point forecasts? Good question. I think point and click is somewhat GFS based but, zones are actually made by the forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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