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Central PA - Is it really looking like Christmas?

NortheastPAWx

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

"I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas"

- 12/17 06Z GFS

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

"I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas"

- 12/17 06Z GFS

Santa, is that really you? :)

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pawatch

pawatch

Posted
Posted

"I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas"

- 12/17 06Z GFS

Hahaha :santa::snowing:

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

"I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas"

- 12/17 06Z GFS

NAW JUST KIDDING!!

-12/17 12z GFS

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

There's been something lurking just after Christmas on both the GFS and Euro the last couple days. Doesn't look overly great though as both have been trying to cut it. Last night and todays Euro has one helluve CAD scenario though as the low actually occludes in the southeast, starts filling as it cuts up, and tries to start a secondary on the east coast at 240 hr. Way to far out yet, we'll have a somewhat better idea about it by the end of the week. It does look like a period to watch though.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

https://www.facebook...458425827538014

Was visiting the Philly thread and someone posted some comments about a great write-up by Dave Tolleris for the post-Christmas snow storm potential. It's a great read so I thought I'd post the facebook link to it here. I'm sure there are more direct ways to find this but I thought this method was okay. It definitely helped cheer me up! :)

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Jmister

Jmister

Posted
Posted

Anybody have access to the Eastern / AmericanWx threads for February 2010?

I found myself looking through them a while ago when dreaming about epic snowstorms. Here's a good place to start...

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__2360

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

He just "threw a run of the Euro out" because it didn't show want he wanted it to. Seriously, he does this like twice a day. Why is he taken seriously?

Certainly a more believable run than it was last night with that system. It's also a longer duration snow to sleet to ZR to rain event for a good portion of Central PA verbatim.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Thank god I am going to Johnstown Thursday. They look to get crushed with 6"+ lake effect Friday into Saturday.

Yea your def gonna be good to go up there. I expect a warning level event for Cambria and Somerset counties. Watches up already in WVA. CTP already has an early snowmap for Fri-Sun.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

CTP acknowledges the post X-mas threat.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME SHOULD LOSE

ITS GRIP ON THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 18/12Z ECENS AND

GEFS SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WHICH

SHOULD FORCE HEIGHTS TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST

TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL US NEXT TUE WHERE SRN PLAINS

CYCLOGENESIS/GULF INFLOW/DEVELOPING PCPN COULD OCCUR TUCKED

UNDERNEATH A MID-HIGHER LATITUDE DOME OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE TO

THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PCPN TO THE

REGION AROUND DEC 26TH /NEXT WED/ AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE LWR

MS/TN/OH VLYS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

What do you think about for us in the I99 corridor. I am hoping for an inch or two.

I think an inch or two is pretty doable, especially in our lil zone that's between the Allegheny front and I-99. When this gets more into meso-model range will have to see the take on the evolution of LES features. Would imagine the early stages of this event will feature the widespread snow shield (part LES/orographic and perhaps partly the remnants of the deform) that encompasses alot of western PA but doesnt get very far off the mountains. Given that this looks like a fairly strong event, I'd say that alone will probably be enough to get that inch or two for us. As the system itself starts lifting out and the NW flow continues, we could see the more intense discrete bands that with the right alignment (ie a huron connection) could penetrate much deeper into the central counties.

Additionally (something also mentioned in CTP afternoon disco), alot of guidance still suggests the back end of the precip shield associated with the frontal passage Thurs night could turn over to snow before it moves out. 15z SREFs for example, have pretty high probabilities of 1"+ for alot of the central and even half decent probs for 4+ in the northern tier before you see the LES regime start lighting up the Laurels and west.

Hr 69:

post-1507-0-11699200-1355871360_thumb.gi

Then there's the storm next week, we got a ways to go for that one. I do think this one could feature the best shot of wintry precip yet this early season. I also think this storm is going to attempt to cut with the -PNA and a neutral to perhaps slightly negative NAO (as it looks currently of course). However, I don't think this one is going to have the easy cut like the one coming up is going to have. For starters, we'll have had cold air in place. Then there's the debatable blocking discussion. I even saw JB and Margusity seem to get a lil snippy on twitter earlier today over this. To put this in 7-9 days out terms, there's a strong indication on the models of a significant winter storm over a good portion of the country in the middle of next week. And I see all the major options still on the table for this systems possible track wrt to C-PA impacts (cutter, start cutting with secondary, get underneath PA and along coast). My take right now is that this smells of a wintry mess ala todays 12z operational euro.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

I think an inch or two is pretty doable, especially in our lil zone that's between the Allegheny front and I-99. When this gets more into meso-model range will have to see the take on the evolution of LES features. Would imagine the early stages of this event will feature the widespread snow shield (part LES/orographic and perhaps partly the remnants of the deform) that encompasses alot of western PA but doesnt get very far off the mountains. Given that this looks like a fairly strong event, I'd say that alone will probably be enough to get that inch or two for us. As the system itself starts lifting out and the NW flow continues, we could see the more intense discrete bands that with the right alignment (ie a huron connection) could penetrate much deeper into the central counties.

Additionally (something also mentioned in CTP afternoon disco), alot of guidance still suggests the back end of the precip shield associated with the frontal passage Thurs night could turn over to snow before it moves out. 15z SREFs for example, have pretty high probabilities of 1"+ for alot of the central and even half decent probs for 4+ in the northern tier before you see the LES regime start lighting up the Laurels and west.

Hr 69:

post-1507-0-11699200-1355871360_thumb.gi

Then there's the storm next week, we got a ways to go for that one. I do think this one could feature the best shot of wintry precip yet this early season. I also think this storm is going to attempt to cut with the -PNA and a neutral to perhaps slightly negative NAO (as it looks currently of course). However, I don't think this one is going to have the easy cut like the one coming up is going to have. For starters, we'll have had cold air in place. Then there's the debatable blocking discussion. I even saw JB and Margusity seem to get a lil snippy on twitter earlier today over this. To put this in 7-9 days out terms, there's a strong indication on the models of a significant winter storm over a good portion of the country in the middle of next week. And I see all the major options still on the table for this systems possible track wrt to C-PA impacts (cutter, start cutting with secondary, get underneath PA and along coast). My take right now is that this smells of a wintry mess ala todays 12z operational euro.

Thanks, Mag. We generally do ok in these kind of setups, like a 1-3 sort of deal. Did you see the 18Z GFS? Wow. Overdone, of course. What was that even about?

lol I saw the sniping between Henry and JB. Having worked at Accuwx it raised an eyebrow.

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