djr5001 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro destroys all of us off the map. With temperature profile on 0z run it would be an elevation event again. Still doesn't have all of the ingredients yet to be a major storm. The system coming through Sunday/Monday will be key if we can see enough cold air in place before the Wednesday system arrives. I usually don't follow the climate models much until the past month or so, but the CFSv2 had been showing a system come through here on the 19th consistently for at least a week or two until the date came into GFS and Euro range. The CFSv2 has since not shown any event for the 19th but Euro and GFS continue to do so, just thought that was interesting. Before some people start freaking out saying things like "here we go again" if we do not see snow from this series of storms next week, keep in mind that areas around Harrisburg and Williamsport average about 6-8" of snow in December. For many of these locations, the average December snowfall is close to the same or less than average March snowfall. Over the past 30 Decembers, Harrisburg has seen total December snowfall average to be 5.5". Over that 30 year time period, only 10 of the 30 months have been above average (so 1 in 3 years) and only 5 of the 30 (1 in 6 years) has the total been over 10" for the month. So still a long way to go with the season, and it is common that we have near misses in December. Again not saying the Wednesday system will be a miss, but history has shown it will not be uncommon if we run into temperature issues. As for the comment about the local news even thinking to mention snow potential a week in advance, I would think it would keep people tuned in for updates over the next week to see if we really will see any snow. I heard it mentioned too and in a way that they could say they had it first if it does happen and if not describe the potential that was there but just never panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With temperature profile on 0z run it would be an elevation event again. Still doesn't have all of the ingredients yet to be a major storm. The system coming through Sunday/Monday will be key if we can see enough cold air in place before the Wednesday system arrives. I usually don't follow the climate models much until the past month or so, but the CFSv2 had been showing a system come through here on the 19th consistently for at least a week or two until the date came into GFS and Euro range. The CFSv2 has since not shown any event for the 19th but Euro and GFS continue to do so, just thought that was interesting. Before some people start freaking out saying things like "here we go again" if we do not see snow from this series of storms next week, keep in mind that areas around Harrisburg and Williamsport average about 6-8" of snow in December. For many of these locations, the average December snowfall is close to the same or less than average March snowfall. Over the past 30 Decembers, Harrisburg has seen total December snowfall average to be 5.5". Over that 30 year time period, only 10 of the 30 months have been above average (so 1 in 3 years) and only 5 of the 30 (1 in 6 years) has the total been over 10" for the month. So still a long way to go with the season, and it is common that we have near misses in December. Again not saying the Wednesday system will be a miss, but history has shown it will not be uncommon if we run into temperature issues. As for the comment about the local news even thinking to mention snow potential a week in advance, I would think it would keep people tuned in for updates over the next week to see if we really will see any snow. I heard it mentioned too and in a way that they could say they had it first if it does happen and if not describe the potential that was there but just never panned out. Yes yes a million times yes. A lot of you need to remember this: Keep your expectations tiny that way you aren't so whiny. Know your climate, and what to expect. Also temper your expectations. The problem with our winters often isn't the weather, it's some of you. The expectations some of you guys set for winter are unrealistic. We don't live in an area that gets 3-4 warning criteria snows a month every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What a beauty of a run by the 12z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Wow at the 12z GFS. What a gorgeous track for our area! Too bad we are lacking any real cold air. Verbatim it would be a mostly cold rain event, maybe changing over to snow in the NW regions. In talking with Mallow, he raised the issue that the GFS probably is not able to resolve the deformation band that would be ripping somewhere in the area if that solution panned out. As you know, deformation bands cool the air, and with most of the area below 3C at 850, it wouldn't take much... Bottom line is we finally have something to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With the world ending 12-21-12, it would be nice to see one last monster storm... The schools are already complaining about weather days. they lost 2-3 due to Sandy and we had one day we lost to snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 HR180 of 12z Euro... wow... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro impressive, but temps still look to be an issue for the entire area. Sure hope that we don't get a perfect snowstorm track that ends up being ice cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro impressive, but temps still look to be an issue for the entire area. Sure hope that we don't get a perfect snowstorm track that ends up being ice cold rain. I wouldn't worry about temps at this point. There is a high on that run to the north and 5H setup is classic and 976mb lows pull in more cold air than that. If that would happen like that temps would surely be colder. Not like it matters, next run will be completely different. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 How often do these storms work in our favor, to be honest? I'm not trolling or whining, I'm asking for percentages here. These type of events usually result in a very short backend of wintry precip while NE gets slammed, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 How often do these storms work in our favor, to be honest? I'm not trolling or whining, I'm asking for percentages here. These type of events usually result in a very short backend of wintry precip while NE gets slammed, right? With a track like that? No we usually get crushed. Blizzard of 1996 is a close setup to this with the cut off vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 How often do these storms work in our favor, to be honest? I'm not trolling or whining, I'm asking for percentages here. These type of events usually result in a very short backend of wintry precip while NE gets slammed, right? Not sure of any percentage but a track like 12z Euro would favor at least a changeover to decent snowfall more often than not around here in mid to late December, more likely to have greater impact in January/February. With the pattern becoming so active starting late this upcoming weekend, I am wondering how well the models are handling the run of one system after another. A deviation in an earlier system's track could easily take away what looks favorable for the 19th/20th or enhance it. Its nice to see the potential for something keeps showing up, but too many factors in play over the next few days before we really get an idea of how this may play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Don't get too excited. The placement of western ridge is not in a location for an east coast snow storm, there is no cold and and limited downstream blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Don't get too excited. The placement of western ridge is not in a location for an east coast snow storm, there is no cold and and limited downstream blocking. Tons of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 right now next week looks like this past Monday, a chilly rainy day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dunno why Accupro's Euro is so slow today, usually I would've been able to see the full run over an hour ago. Any rate I'm going off of E-wall in the meantime. Suffice to say if we get a bomb like the Euro is depicting there.. it will be snowing somewhere in Central PA. I can already see a sub 0ºC 850 hole over the Laurels at 168 on the Ewall Euro. Would prob start as a far interior C-PA event and rain changing to snow west to east as the storm matures. Thats actually about what the GFS is suggesting at the moment, albeit having the event coming a good bit faster than the euro (typical biases). Temps will be marginal, that's a pretty good bet. We need a strong system to dynamically overcome the initially displaced "cold" (or should I say just cool enough) air. This is still 6-7 days out though, so let's not get too hung up on precise temp profiles yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I get the feeling that the models are going to be all over the place and on drugs, like fashion models at a Chanel after-party. Probably best to keep a level head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Boy that 12z Euro did have a nicely tracked bomb for next week. Curiously it also had three different waves instead of two. The second of which (about hr 132-138) looked to be a rain to snow scenario for the northern half of the state as the Euro actually advects in colder air from the NE. Then, we have the bomb impacting from hour 168 thru 186+. Thermally it becomes cold enough pretty early on at 850mb, while the 925mb level features temps between 0 and 2ºC over a lot of the duration of the storm for about the NW 2/3s of PA. Given the temps (quite marginal) and location of best QPF axis i'd say the central third of the state would get hammered by significant deform concrete with perhaps some large elevational variability. The Sus Valley would probably deal with rain for a time before going over to snow as the storm matures. The track of the low is fantastic for geographic C-PA, as well as the Sus Valley if there were to be a bit more cold tapped in. It also does actually have some ridging out west with the 500 axis just a hair west of Boise at hr 174 when closed 528dm low is placed over the southern Delmarva. Looks great, now only 7 days and many more different model scenarios to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM joins Euro and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Chilly this morning. Sitting at 15° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Chilly this morning. Sitting at 15° currently. 25 at home in Summerdale, 28 at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It was cold, no doubt. Heavy frost too - it was nice to see a little white on grass and buildings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Not too excited over a coastal...especially if cold air is lacking. Precip cut off worries plus questionable cold air are something to kerp an eye on...esp. this far out. Keeping a level head on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am working on a December snowfall project for Harrisburg to show just how rare significant snowfall occurs during this month around here... still need to track down some data that is missing from NCDC but do have 109 of last 124 years complete so far of the official snowfall record... hopefully will post something tomorrow if able to find some more of the data but did find a few things to be rather interesting so far. Harrisburg has never reported an inch or more of snow on December 1st during these 109 years on record, December 5th and December 25 are the two dates that have had the most days consisting of 1" or more snowfall during these same years (10 times), and though there have only been 24 days in December over the 109 years with daily snowfall measured at 6" or more -- December 19th has had 6" or more reported the most times (4). I thought the last part was rather ironic considering us watching the potential for roughly the same date next week. After done with Harrisburg I am hoping to do something similar with Williamsport, Allentown, Philly, Pittsburgh, and hopefully State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am working on a December snowfall project for Harrisburg to show just how rare significant snowfall occurs during this month around here... still need to track down some data that is missing from NCDC but do have 109 of last 124 years complete so far of the official snowfall record... hopefully will post something tomorrow if able to find some more of the data but did find a few things to be rather interesting so far. Harrisburg has never reported an inch or more of snow on December 1st during these 109 years on record, December 5th and December 25 are the two dates that have had the most days consisting of 1" or more snowfall during these same years (10 times), and though there have only been 24 days in December over the 109 years with daily snowfall measured at 6" or more -- December 19th has had 6" or more reported the most times (4). I thought the last part was rather ironic considering us watching the potential for roughly the same date next week. After done with Harrisburg I am hoping to do something similar with Williamsport, Allentown, Philly, Pittsburgh, and hopefully State College. You may have saved me some trouble through your research. There is a December 19th, in the mid 70's we had a decent snow. Did your search find anything around that time frame? This involves a bet. i said it was 7" or greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You may have saved me some trouble through your research. There is a December 19th, in the mid 70's we had a decent snow. Did your search find anything around that time frame? This involves a bet. i said it was 7" or greater in 1973 there was 6" and 6.1" on December 16th and 17th in 1977 there was 2.6" on the 19th and 1.6" on the 20th those are the two most significant amounts around that time that was reported as official for Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 in 1973 there was 6" and 6.1" on December 16th and 17th in 1977 there was 2.6" on the 19th and 1.6" on the 20th those are the two most significant amounts around that time that was reported as official for Harrisburg It was 1973! Damn i lost. My nephew was born that evening and i remember it was snowing like hell and we had to shovel to get them out. I thought it was even more, i was thinking 8-10". Thanks edit-i need to quit doing 3 things at once and pay attention. I guess if it snowed 6.1 on the 16-17th and then 2 days later snowed 6" that would be over a foot, i assume thats why i thought that "day" was a biger snowfall. it was the 2 combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I heard today 2012, the calendar year, might end with MDT's record lowest snowfall. Anyone know if that's actually true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I heard today 2012, the calendar year, might end with MDT's record lowest snowfall. Anyone know if that's actually true? I don't think so. The snow total is 8.0". I looked at AccuWx pro and 1998 was 4.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Heavy, heavy meteors currently. Walked outside and once my eyes adjusted a bit to the dark I saw 3 in under 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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