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Central PA - Is it really looking like Christmas?

NortheastPAWx

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

I give up on winter. Another loser.

Courage, young man, courage:

Note his last sentence.

yes sir, the fog was pretty intense, its not as bad now, but its still foggy.

You think we hit 70 today? I think we have a really good shot at it honestly. yesterday it was 67, had they had our field ready, i would have moved our winter workout outside. Yep, Dec 3rd!

This morning going to work and pulling out of my driveway I nearly got nailed by....someone driving fast in a light gray car with no lights on at dawn. :axe: :axe: :axe:

May the next person he does that to be driving an 18 wheeler.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
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Courage, young man, courage:

Note his last sentence.

This morning going to work and pulling out of my driveway I nearly got nailed by....someone driving fast in a light gray car with no lights on at dawn. :axe: :axe: :axe:

May the next person he does that to be driving an 18 wheeler.

Yikes. I just finished a nasty drive to Williamsport, thick fog the whole way, and still people driving without lights on. Looks to push 70 in most of south central pa today...might have a shot at the record in state college.

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

Courage, young man, courage: http://www.americanw...05#entry1896194

Note his last sentence.

This morning going to work and pulling out of my driveway I nearly got nailed by....someone driving fast in a light gray car with no lights on at dawn. :axe: :axe: :axe:

May the next person he does that to be driving an 18 wheeler.

i'm not shocked really. People are in such a hurry to go no where they can't turn on their lights, use their turn signals, wipers etc. At time i wonder if turn signals are an option when buying a new vehicle?

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Yikes. I just finished a nasty drive to Williamsport, thick fog the whole way, and still people driving without lights on. Looks to push 70 in most of south central pa today...might have a shot at the record in state college.

i'm not shocked really. People are in such a hurry to go no where they can't turn on their lights, use their turn signals, wipers etc. At time i wonder if turn signals are an option when buying a new vehicle?

Some people are just stump dumb.

BTW I've heard that fog has been really thick around Williamsport.

On another note, anyone know that Brett Anderson at AccWx posts the Euro Weeklies?: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-long-range-forecast-model-1/2330783

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted

From what I understand last Tuesday's storm not cutting to the lakes was part of the reason why we have this warm weather. I wonder if we get a lakes cutter next week if that sets things up.

Yea certainly the fact that it ended up not being a very amplified system. If it had been a stronger wave, we would've likely seen it cut. A strong system would've likely reshuffled things a bit downstream in the Atlantic NAO wise. Still though, I had been anticipating we would warm up one more time behind the recent cold weather we have had before we set up to get into something more wintry. And a big step to help this along would be the PNA to finally reverse from it's negative regime. That's actually a key thing really, especially if we don't have more of a west based -NAO. The PNA forecast just a couple days ago had virtually all members making a significant shift (vicinity of +2 SD rise). Today?

post-1507-0-00908100-1354647776_thumb.gi

Thats a monumental shift in opinion and a frustrating one if that trend for a continued solid -PNA ends up being right. We'll see though, the computer models have just not had a very good time of it when it comes to any kind of consistency on any one thing.

As far as the storm next week, the last few runs have not been as deep as they were with a bomb up the central lakes. Today's GFS has a fairly weak low that tracks across western PA and Euro is similar with a bit of a stronger low that tracks over the eastern Lakes. Canadian does have the much stronger primary wave today thru the central Lakes after actually having a coastal low last night. Still a lot to sort out with this event(s), as we will have multiple waves riding a stalled out frontal boundary whose position is to be determined. I suspect modelling will eventually start zeroing in on having more of a single, stronger event with some weak disturbances and showers preceding. At any rate, it looks like we will have another day or two early next week where we have significant departures above average followed by a strong cold shot behind the primary system. Strength and duration of the cold will ultimately be determined on if we build some downstream blocking and/or if we can reverse or at least neutralize the PNA.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

Wow, nice Penn! Congrats on becoming green!

Now prepare to deal with us when the sharp cutoffs start. ;)

Keep it in the complaint/banter thread and there will be no issues this winter. ;)

PennMann is a mod? Rock bottom, huh.

I kid! Congrats!

Lol. Thanks.

Still 62° here...front is approaching though, light/moderate rain.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

After a quick perusal of your sig, I'd say it's weenie-ish. What's your indoor temp? (old Marcus joke). Put that in your sig too. :pimp:

<_< 72.3° at 5' in the living room, 71.4° at 6.5' in the kitchen.

37° outside...saw a couple of mangled/melted snow pellets earlier this afternoon.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

After a quick perusal of your sig, I'd say it's weenie-ish. What's your indoor temp? (old Marcus joke). Put that in your sig too. :pimp:

<_< 72.3° at 5' in the living room, 71.4° at 6.5' in the kitchen.

37° outside...saw a couple of mangled/melted snow pellets earlier this afternoon.

Have to excuse stormtracker. He's jealous of our inch of snow.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

At least we got some action on the GFS tonight in the form of an active stormy pattern with generally seasonably cold temps in the longer range. Has a straight up southern branch storm after the cutter in about the D8 range that tracks somewhere just inside the east coast (truncation after h186 makes details sketchy)... and then a nice miller-B way out in lol-range. Canadian stays pretty cool but is a lot less active storm wise. Euro, well.. buhh. It does have the GFS's system but more out toward day 10 and its a GLC. It doesn't keep the cold behind the early week cutter very long at all.

I think we'll start to get a better picture of things once next weeks system is upon us. Trying to level off our constant -PNA would help things a bit but actual development of any bonefide +PNA regime doesn't seem to be in the cards at this juncture. However, yesterdays CPC NAO forecast went off a cliff unanimously taking it down between -2 to -3 between about the 10th to the 15th. Not sure what today's ensemble forecast looks like yet. If we can get a decent west based -NAO rolling, that can counteract the -PNA enough to offer up some wintry chances and better retention of cold. This was kind of how December 2010 was actually, a negative PNA coupled with a REALLY negative NAO/AO. We then lucked out in January '11 when the NAO/AO neutralized mid-month just in time for a good +PNA to develop and keep funneling cold right into February.

Time will tell.. I think we've probably seen the end of mega torching for the time being save for maybe a briefer one prior to early next weeks storm. However, the concern is there that we get into a pattern where it's say.. seasonably cold right up until we get a storm and it warms up enough to rain.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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At least we got some action on the GFS tonight in the form of an active stormy pattern with generally seasonably cold temps in the longer range. Has a straight up southern branch storm after the cutter in about the D8 range that tracks somewhere just inside the east coast (truncation after h186 makes details sketchy)... and then a nice miller-B way out in lol-range. Canadian stays pretty cool but is a lot less active storm wise. Euro, well.. buhh. It does have the GFS's system but more out toward day 10 and its a GLC. It doesn't keep the cold behind the early week cutter very long at all.

I think we'll start to get a better picture of things once next weeks system is upon us. Trying to level off our constant -PNA would help things a bit but actual development of any bonefide +PNA regime doesn't seem to be in the cards at this juncture. However, yesterdays CPC NAO forecast went off a cliff unanimously taking it down between -2 to -3 between about the 10th to the 15th. Not sure what today's ensemble forecast looks like yet. If we can get a decent west based -NAO rolling, that can counteract the -PNA enough to offer up some wintry chances and better retention of cold. This was kind of how December 2010 was actually, a negative PNA coupled with a REALLY negative NAO/AO. We then lucked out in January '11 when the NAO/AO neutralized mid-month just in time for a good +PNA to develop and keep funneling cold right into February.

Time will tell.. I think we've probably seen the end of mega torching for the time being save for maybe a briefer one prior to early next weeks storm. However, the concern is there that we get into a pattern where it's say.. seasonably cold right up until we get a storm and it warms up enough to rain.

So long as the Pacific remains unfavorable, this will be the case of the weather. Mild to warm, dry with just transient cold shots that never take hold. Regardless of the state of the NAO.

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