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Central PA - Is it really looking like Christmas?


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Via CTP's Facebook, MDT gonna finish about -3.5ºF for the month of November and -2 inches QPF wise. Haven't seen a solidly cold November temp wise in awhile. Precip has def been lackluster though... I think our last significant precip event was actually Hurricane Sandy. Next week or two look like a wash in the models as it appears we're in a transistional period pattern wise. I originally thought this coming week was going to be the one that was going to switch to a good winter pattern with this week being the warm one but this week ended up being cold and we're seeing the warm up next week. Time will tell, I think towards the 10th or so we should start seeing some more snow chances. In the nearer future, it looks relatively warm and quiet as the west gets slammed with a series of storms.

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Has anyone else noticed what the big story of this month has been - exceptionally cold and dry. No idea what that means for the rest of the winter.

Here's CTP's climate summary for November for IPT and MDT. Note that if we had not had our little snow event earlier in the week Harrisburg's monthly precip total would probably also have been top 5 with only around 0.6" of precip for the month before the snow.

My guess was that MDT's temp was going to put it in the top 25 for coldest, and I was surprised to see it all the way up there at #16 coldest since 1888.

NOVEMBER 2012 WAS A COLD AND DRY MONTH AT BOTH OFFICIAL CLIMATE

SITES. IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY MONTH AT WILLIAMSPORT.

AT WILLIAMSPORT...THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 39.6 DEGREES

TIED 1971 AS THE 25TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. THE TOTAL MONTHLY

PRECIPITATION OF 0.65 INCHES RANKED AS THE 5TH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON

RECORD. THE TOP 5 DRIEST NOVEMBER`S AT WILLIAMSPORT ARE:

1. 1904 - 0.51 INCHES

2. 1917 - 0.53 INCHES

3. 1908 - 0.56 INCHES

4. 1909 - 0.59 INCHES

5. 2012 - 0.65 INCHES

AT HARRISBURG...THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 40.7 DEGREES

RANKED AS THE 16TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. THE TOTAL MONTHLY

PRECIPITATION OF 1.05 INCHES RANKED AS THE 19TH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON

RECORD.

NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET AT EITHER SITE DURING NOVEMBER 2012. A

CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE

1888...AND SINCE 1895 AT WILLIAMSPORT.

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I have a (likely very dumb) question: Why has it been so hazy today and Saturday?

It's like Dallas, Texas, on a 105 degree mid August day yet been cold. I don't understand why, anyone really know?

not sure. It has been very damp all weekend though. Just rained here a little while ago too.

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I have a (likely very dumb) question: Why has it been so hazy today and Saturday?

It's like Dallas, Texas, on a 105 degree mid August day yet been cold. I don't understand why, anyone really know?

I was actually wondering the same thing yesterday. I can't think of what would be causing the low visibility we've been having!

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I was actually wondering the same thing yesterday. I can't think of what would be causing the low visibility we've been having!

It was pretty bad yesterday. I know the lower Susquehanna Valley had an air quality alert. Some of it is likely from wood-burning stoves and fireplaces, but that alone is usually not enough to cause degradation like yesterday.

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It was pretty bad yesterday. I know the lower Susquehanna Valley had an air quality alert. Some of it is likely from wood-burning stoves and fireplaces, but that alone is usually not enough to cause degradation like yesterday.

I looked at the soundings from yesterday and its pretty clear what caused the haze. You're definitely right, any smoke or other pollutants released across the region were trapped by a very strong inversion right above the surface.

12/2 12z sounding from IAD:

post-1406-0-91777200-1354500995_thumb.gi

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Well no, I get that November's norms are 40s-50s but it didn't seem like it was much below that during the day aside from one or two isolated days. Just me.

You'd be surprised. Actually, it was -3.6 for highs, -3.1 for lows at MDT for a total of -3.4.

That's why it's better to rely on data than perception to determine a cold month because data removes personal stuff like how we tolerate cold, etc.

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I have a (likely very dumb) question: Why has it been so hazy today and Saturday?

It's like Dallas, Texas, on a 105 degree mid August day yet been cold. I don't understand why, anyone really know?

On Saturday, of the two areas of high pressure set up along the east coast, the one over New England took control and created east/northeasterly flow and a set up we often see linked to cold air damming here east of the mountains. Winds aloft were more out of the west/southwest which then created the warm air riding over the colder air being trapped at the surface. Temperatures Saturday barely climbed into the low 40s around here while western PA had temperatures climb into the mid to upper 50s. So with warmer air riding over the colder air at the surface, we had the foggy haze develop as the temperature inversion trapped the moisture/pollutants closer to the surface. Saturday night/Sunday morning was the thickest fog I have seen in quite some time.

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It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...?

Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light southwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

Haha, these monster departures we're gonna have from these first few days of December are going to be hard to erase no matter what we do the second half of the month. We're gonna get back to average for a day or two midweek before we start ticking back above normal again by the weekend. To add to our fugly December start.. It also is starting to look (at the moment anyways) like we're going to sacrifice what could be our first sizeable storm system we've had in awhile to the lakes around the 10-11th before we have some colder air move in. The question then being of course the strength of the cold and if we can actually hang onto it. Should add the disclaimer that computer forecasts have been highly changeable even for lol-range standards and even medium range as of late. Our Tuesday snow last week was a lakes cutter in the Day 5-7 range.

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Couldn't see the river this morning due to fog, it was a complete white wall at the bank. Scary stuff, really.

I'm also reading on some other threads winter's overall pattern isn't shaping up to be a good one for this region whatsoever. I hope they're wrong!

yes sir, the fog was pretty intense, its not as bad now, but its still foggy.

You think we hit 70 today? I think we have a really good shot at it honestly. yesterday it was 67, had they had our field ready, i would have moved our winter workout outside. Yep, Dec 3rd!

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Haha, these monster departures we're gonna have from these first few days of December are going to be hard to erase no matter what we do the second half of the month. We're gonna get back to average for a day or two midweek before we start ticking back above normal again by the weekend. To add to our fugly December start.. It also is starting to look (at the moment anyways) like we're going to sacrifice what could be our first sizeable storm system we've had in awhile to the lakes around the 10-11th before we have some colder air move in. The question then being of course the strength of the cold and if we can actually hang onto it. Should add the disclaimer that computer forecasts have been highly changeable even for lol-range standards and even medium range as of late. Our Tuesday snow last week was a lakes cutter in the Day 5-7 range.

From what I understand last Tuesday's storm not cutting to the lakes was part of the reason why we have this warm weather. I wonder if we get a lakes cutter next week if that sets things up.

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