Yorkpa25 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Sorry. Latest models(I know it's more nowcast time though) edging slightly east with the precipitation which puts the lower Susquehanna valley damn close to out of the game after previously being fringed. Im no met and i admit it but i do love weather, especially winter related.WWA advisory up for 2-4 inches does not look like it is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Sorry. Latest models(I know it's more nowcast time though) edging slightly east with the precipitation which puts the lower Susquehanna valley damn close to out of the game after previously being fringed. Im no met and i admit it but i do love weather, especially winter related.WWA advisory up for 2-4 inches does not look like it is warranted. if my memory serves me right, you did this last year as well. bitching and complaining every model run. chill out. back on topic- any chance we have issues with wind later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Seriously if this thread is going to be like this all winter, we are going to have issues. Please add something meteorologically meaningfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm sorry. That's not the purpose of my post, my post must come off the wrong way. It's really just how I feel and there is meteorological reasoning behind this particular opinion. But this is a great forum been following it for probably 5 years, so if my attitude is contaminating this thread I will just stand back n lurk all winter long. Well thank you keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm sorry. That's not the purpose of my post, my post must come off the wrong way. It's really just how I feel and there is meteorological reasoning behind this particular opinion. But this is a great forum been following it for probably 5 years, so if my attitude is contaminating this thread I will just stand back n lurk all winter long. Well thank you keep up the good work i don't think blizz directed that post at you, there are a few guilty people here. That being said, CTP revised KLNS snowfall forecast to less than 0.5." Just another example of the fickle nature of the weather. Something everyone here should be very much aware of. That's why I don't get the fatalist attitudes at times. The only truth, it seems (from a hobbyist's perspective) are current conditions. Everything else has varying degrees of error attached. To count on something to happen, knowing how quickly and how often things change, is asking for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Looks like pretty much a whiff. No biggie considering the date. I'm more stoked for sunny and 60 this weekend. After all the dreariness we've been stuck in since Sandy, it will be a welcome sight. Plus I haven't put the clubs away yet and the courses are still in great condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Latest NWS forecast for KLNS is back to 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Same for me in Harrisburg. This Afternoon A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. North wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible Tonight Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 30. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Same for me in Harrisburg. I just dont see the snow happening much further west than philly... i really have a feeling the dry air will win without a sharp western turn with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I agree. I actually made a bet at lunch with a random waitress I've never met that we won't get more than 1" snow of grass tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 i agree with you guys, doubt will see any snow, or rain for that matter. However as i'm typing this, its starting to get that look in the sky. edited to fix my post, not sure what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I agree. I actually made a bet at lunch with a random waitress I've never met that we won't get more than 1" snow of grass tonight. I think eventually precip of some intensity will manage to push back to about Harrisburg. The key of course is going to be if we can get some bands of heavier precip to actually get some measureable snow on the ground. Just seeing the 15z SREFs and they appear to be in line with the 12z NAM with keeping accumulating snow towards Philly. CTP is probably going to trim back snow grids and possibly advisories on their afternoon update. I do think you guys will see some flakes though, and any flakes is a good start in that neck of the woods when its only November 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Sprinkles now along the river in Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Man this looks like that 2000 storm easternuswx was comparing this to with that sharp cut off. I was working that night and they were calling for a decent amount. The cut off was at the Lancaster Chester co line. They got 4-6 " if i remember right and it actually cleared up here in Western Lancaster Co. That was the biggest bust I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Man this looks like that 2000 storm easternuswx was comparing this to with that sharp cut off. I was working that night and they were calling for a decent amount. The cut off was at the Lancaster Chester co line. They got 4-6 " if i remember right and it actually cleared up here in Western Lancaster Co. That was the biggest bust I can remember. even bigger than the 2001 bust? We were supposed to get FEET in lanco, ended up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 May have been that one I thinking of not sure somtime in the early 2000's I know got nothing here and good acummulation in Chester Co. Was sharpest cut off I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Man this looks like that 2000 storm easternuswx was comparing this to with that sharp cut off. I was working that night and they were calling for a decent amount. The cut off was at the Lancaster Chester co line. They got 4-6 " if i remember right and it actually cleared up here in Western Lancaster Co. That was the biggest bust I can remember. It probably wasn't that particular storm, although it certainly did have a sharp cutoff which I remember being on the wrong side of... but Lancaster county as a whole did very well with that one I believe. The 2000 surprise storm was much stronger and tracked right along the coastline. The lore of that storm was that it was predicted to be an out to sea glance with not very much snow even 24 hours prior. For the DC area, it didn't become apparent that it was even going to snow more than maybe an inch until less than 10 hours prior to it starting, and since that happened to be an overnight timeframe.. it was a complete surprise when everyone woke up to an all out snowstorm. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yea not sure which is was but even at 6pm they were calling for decent amounts even west of the susquehanna. Just remember seeing the stars come out and thinking what. Heck we even had one of our cruisers chained up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 CTP revised my forecast. Tonight: A chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then snow. Low around 30. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday: A chance of light snow before 8am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 revised as well. Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday: Light snow likely, mainly before 7am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 40 degrees, mix of precip in Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Brief period of sleet, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Have the first flakes of very light snow, snizzle breaking through. Hey just happy to see the first falkes of the season, was expecting less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Jesus people, let's step away from the ledge, it's November 7. Gonna be a long winter of 5-postings and time-outs if the past few days are any indication. Since this is AmericanWx,....I think those guys need to follow this man's advice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 That random chick I bet today totally owes me lunch. Not a flake yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It probably wasn't that particular storm, although it certainly did have a sharp cutoff which I remember being on the wrong side of... but Lancaster county as a whole did very well with that one I believe. The 2000 surprise storm was much stronger and tracked right along the coastline. The lore of that storm was that it was predicted to be an out to sea glance with not very much snow even 24 hours prior. For the DC area, it didn't become apparent that it was even going to snow more than maybe an inch until less than 10 hours prior to it starting, and since that happened to be an overnight timeframe.. it was a complete surprise when everyone woke up to an all out snowstorm. Link Definitely a different storm than what they are talking about. The Jan 25, 2000 storm hit York County hard as well. My brother went to bed thinking no snow, got ready for work without really looking outside, and opened the door and was stunned to see wind-driven snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Definitely a different storm than what they are talking about. The Jan 25, 2000 storm hit York County hard as well. My brother went to bed thinking no snow, got ready for work without really looking outside, and opened the door and was stunned to see wind-driven snow. Ya would be nice to see one of these again Story http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Radar http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/nowrad.avi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 i took notice that we were in the 30's yesterday for most of the day, late afternoon (5ish) when the wind picked up 10-12 with gusts in the mid 20's, my temp went to 45. No precip on the other side of the mighty susky either. The weekend is looking nice, i'm not as sure as others we reach the 60's, but mid to high 50s seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Ya would be nice to see one of these again Story http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20000125/ Radar http://www4.ncsu.edu...0125/nowrad.avi I remember before I went to bed looking at the NWS site at 11 pm and being stunned to see a winter storm warning for York/Harrisburg/Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I never saw a flake of snow or drop of rain. That chick at Home 231 owes me two lunches since it didn't do anything, much less sit an 1" on grass like she bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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