NHC Irrational

[Storm At Sea]

Are you that dense? The 4PM advisory by NHC was clearly released as "Hurricane Sandy;" You cannot sit there and say that this storm was not tropical in nature. Give me one ounce of data to support the notion that she was not warm core 1, 2, 3 hours before landfall. You are barking up the wrong tree. The NHC is going to get major flack for it, whether you like it or not.

Can you state right here that Sandy was a hurricane at landfall? If so, what is your evidence? If you do not believe Sandy was a hurricane at landfall, but believe that they should have held the moniker to landfall, are you then advocating deception by the NWS as an acceptable tool going forward? That's a mighty slippery slope don't you think?

[BxEngine]

Can you state right here that Sandy was a hurricane at landfall? If so, what is your evidence? If you do not believe Sandy was a hurricane at landfall, but believe that they should have held the moniker to landfall, are you then advocating deception by the NWS as an acceptable tool going forward? That's a mighty slippery slope don't you think?

But if its solely an objective decision, and the switch to an extratropical entity was only hours and a few miles from the coast, doesnt that mean that while it was still considered a tropical entity, there were areas experiencing TS conditions?

[Storm At Sea]

EXACTLY!

FWIW...I have received 4 emails after starting this thread from NWS employees that noted that there was grumblings occurring behind the scenes with the Eastern Headquarters and NHC. Apparently, they had difficulty coming to an agreement.

But if its solely an objective decision, and the switch to an extratropical entity was only hours and a few miles from the coast, doesnt that mean that while it was still considered a tropical entity, there were areas experiencing TS conditions?

[BxEngine]

Also, isnt the NWS guilty of "deception" anyway, since they admitted to not keeping hurricane warnings up with a possible last minute switch "to avoid confusion"? Kind of blows the whole "its an objective analysis by the book decision" argument to sh*t, no?

[Sunny and Warm]

But if its solely an objective decision, and the switch to an extratropical entity was only hours and a few miles from the coast, doesnt that mean that while it was still considered a tropical entity, there were areas experiencing TS conditions?

Can you find any locations that experienced much beyond minimal TS conditions while Sandy was tropical, even in Atlantic City where it "came ashore"? Once she went post-tropical, the dispersion of her core allowed the LLJ to come to the surface and hit places far removed from her "landfall". The surge was for the most part caused by Sandy when she was building the seas in advance of her, but the tremendous winds to me were not tropical in origin. How would defining Sandy as a cat 1 have made people any more cognizant of coastal flooding than they already were. Wording from NWS Mount Holly briefing for several days said that coastal flooding would be major and possibly a record. Bottom line is that no matter what you say or do, some people will put themselves in harms way.

[NorEaster27]

Are you that dense? The 4PM advisory by NHC was clearly released as "Hurricane Sandy;" You cannot sit there and say that this storm was not tropical in nature. Give me one ounce of data to support the notion that she was not warm core 1, 2, 3 hours before landfall. You are barking up the wrong tree. The NHC is going to get major flack for it, whether you like it or not.

Its criminal what the NHC did now millions of people won't get insurance money for this since it wasn't a hurricane when it hit the area

[BxEngine]

Can you find any locations that experienced much beyond minimal TS conditions while Sandy was tropical, even in Atlantic City where it "came ashore"? Once she went post-tropical, the dispersion of her core allowed the LLJ to come to the surface and hit places far removed from her "landfall". The surge was for the most part caused by Sandy when she was building the seas in advance of her, but the tremendous winds to me were not tropical in origin. How would defining Sandy as a cat 1 have made people any more cognizant of coastal flooding than they already were. Wording from NWS Mount Holly briefing for several days said that coastal flooding would be major and possibly a record. Bottom line is that no matter what you say or do, some people will put themselves in harms way.

Is a minimal tropical storm a tropical storm? Objectivity being the argument and all.

[Sunny and Warm]

Also, isnt the NWS guilty of "deception" anyway, since they admitted to not keeping hurricane warnings up with a possible last minute switch "to avoid confusion"? Kind of blows the whole "its an objective analysis by the book decision" argument to sh*t, no?

I understand where you're heading there, and as Sandy approached the coastline, I was thinking the same thing. However, it did go post-tropical before landfall, so I guess you can say they got a little lucky there. I think they expected the transition about six hours earlier than it did. In the end, how many people died because this wasn't labeled a hurricane?? Very few in my estimation.

[Sunny and Warm]

Is a minimal tropical storm a tropical storm? Objectivity being the argument and all.

sure. But if they had issued hurricane warnings, and only 45mph was seen, we'd be hearing that the NHC was making it sound worse than it really was, and the Irene thing would come into play. If they had issued TS warnings, people wouldn't have paid attention since it was only a TS. I don't think the NHC could win regardless here.

[Sunny and Warm]

Are you that dense? The 4PM advisory by NHC was clearly released as "Hurricane Sandy;" You cannot sit there and say that this storm was not tropical in nature. Give me one ounce of data to support the notion that she was not warm core 1, 2, 3 hours before landfall. You are barking up the wrong tree. The NHC is going to get major flack for it, whether you like it or not.

thanks for not answering my questons. The fact is that if you objectively answer them, your argument has no merit.

[BxEngine]

I understand where you're heading there, and as Sandy approached the coastline, I was thinking the same thing. However, it did go post-tropical before landfall, so I guess you can say they got a little lucky there. I think they expected the transition about six hours earlier than it did. In the end, how many people died because this wasn't labeled a hurricane?? Very few in my estimation.

I think if any people died because of what it was called (at least here in NY), the fault (well besides the ultimate fault of the people who didnt leave) lies mostly with Bloomberg....whether he was fed bad info (unlikely), or fed the correct info but downplayed it (much more likely if you follow some of his political decisions and comments). The NWS offices around here did an absolutely FANTASTIC job, there isnt enough praise for them, they undoubtedly saved lives. I think it just comes down to the opinion that it could have been handled differently....of course after every disaster, incident, tragedy etc, we can say these things.

[NaoPos]

Because we should. We need to learn lessons from this to ensure future lessons.

I think if any people died because of what it was called (at least here in NY), the fault (well besides the ultimate fault of the people who didnt leave) lies mostly with Bloomberg....whether he was fed bad info (unlikely), or fed the correct info but downplayed it (much more likely if you follow some of his political decisions and comments). The NWS offices around here did an absolutely FANTASTIC job, there isnt enough praise for them, they undoubtedly saved lives. I think it just comes down to the opinion that it could have been handled differently....

of course after every disaster, incident, tragedy etc, we can say these things.***

And we should. We need to learn lessons from this to ensure future lessons.

[BxEngine]

sure. But if they had issued hurricane warnings, and only 45mph was seen, we'd be hearing that the NHC was making it sound worse than it really was, and the Irene thing would come into play. If they had issued TS warnings, people wouldn't have paid attention since it was only a TS. I don't think the NHC could win regardless here.

I cant disagree with that either....the NHC was probably screwed no matter how they played it. I guess my biggest "beef" (if you wanna call it that, im not angry like some others here ) is that you cant claim it was solely an objective, by the book decision.

[Sunny and Warm]

I think if any people died because of what it was called (at least here in NY), the fault (well besides the ultimate fault of the people who didnt leave) lies mostly with Bloomberg....whether he was fed bad info (unlikely), or fed the correct info but downplayed it (much more likely if you follow some of his political decisions and comments). The NWS offices around here did an absolutely FANTASTIC job, there isnt enough praise for them, they undoubtedly saved lives. I think it just comes down to the opinion that it could have been handled differently....of course after every disaster, incident, tragedy etc, we can say these things.

agree on Bloomberg. He comes across as an Ivory Tower kinda guy. He decided at 4pm yesterday to ban cars into the city with less than 3 occupants. Does he realize that many people are without power may not have gotten that info before they started the drive today? Every time he talks, I get the impression that economics are driving his decisions much moreso than human aspects. Like pulling cops from the destruction zone so they can police a freakin marathon! He's a terrible mayor, or so it seems.

[BxEngine]

agree on Bloomberg. He comes across as an Ivory Tower kinda guy. He decided at 4pm yesterday to ban cars into the city with less than 3 occupants. Does he realize that many people are without power may not have gotten that info before they started the drive today? Every time he talks, I get the impression that economics are driving his decisions much moreso than human aspects. Like pulling cops from the destruction zone so they can police a freakin marathon! He's a terrible mayor, or so it seems.

dont get me started on him! The triborough this morning, took guys getting to Randalls Island almost 2 hours to get from the Queens end of the bridge to the exit. Its usually less than a 5 minute drive. The city is in chaos right now.

[famartin]

Are you that dense? The 4PM advisory by NHC was clearly released as "Hurricane Sandy;" You cannot sit there and say that this storm was not tropical in nature. Give me one ounce of data to support the notion that she was not warm core 1, 2, 3 hours before landfall. You are barking up the wrong tree. The NHC is going to get major flack for it, whether you like it or not.

Actually, there was a statement in the 4PM discussion which said exactly that in reality, they did not think it was tropical at that time:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.discus.030.shtml?

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT

THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION

OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO

THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS

ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT

DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR

A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT

SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT

THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS

EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL

CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM

ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

[LocoAko]

I think if any people died because of what it was called (at least here in NY), the fault (well besides the ultimate fault of the people who didnt leave) lies mostly with Bloomberg....whether he was fed bad info (unlikely), or fed the correct info but downplayed it (much more likely if you follow some of his political decisions and comments). The NWS offices around here did an absolutely FANTASTIC job, there isnt enough praise for them, they undoubtedly saved lives. I think it just comes down to the opinion that it could have been handled differently....of course after every disaster, incident, tragedy etc, we can say these things.

Definitely agree.

The WARNING products from the NWS were abysmal and did not relay the seriousness of this event.

Are you serious? Did the title "LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING" not relay the seriousness of the event? We could argue until tomorrow about whether people listened but I don't agree at all that the NWS products were abysmal....

[BxEngine]

Agreed Jake....my "beef" wasnt with the products they put out, it was how distorted the message became in the telephone game by the time it got to politicians and news stations. Although i think they could have done more, especially in regards to the hours after Bloomberg's Saturday press conference. But thats not really the issue i guess.

[Storm At Sea]

It was a great way to save face. Several good points have been made already by others. It is clear from below that the NHC continues to question when Sandy transitioned. More likely than not, shore areas were being affected by tropical storm conditions prior to the landfall and before the transition. I suspect that the NHC should have explained (just as they did below) in their tropical/hurricane watches and warnings that Sandy would be transitioning into a non-tropical entity, but that the timing would be unclear. I saw many people interviewed on the news that simply stated "There's no hurricane warnings for this one, so I'm going to ride it out." Another issue is this: all of these products are very nice and all, but honestly, who views them? The word warning has a lot of meaning to people, a long paragraph of expected conditions and other meteorological dribble does not hit home with folks. The NHC packages and SPC's by the NWS, etc. are detailed and well thought, but I don't feel that they reach the masses the way a warning does.

"THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT

THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION

OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO

THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS

ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT

DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR

A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT

SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT

THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS

EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL

CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM

ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION."

[Sunny and Warm]

Agreed Jake....my "beef" wasnt with the products they put out, it was how distorted the message became in the telephone game by the time it got to politicians and news stations. Although i think they could have done more, especially in regards to the hours after Bloomberg's Saturday press conference. But thats not really the issue i guess.

not that you need reminding, but Bloomberg told an absolute lie on Sunday when he said that the NWS never told them on Saturday that the Raritan Bay would exhibit possible record coastal flooding. Mount Holly certainly mentioned that area specifically in their Saturday package BEFORE his presser. If a tree falls in the forest ...

[LocoAko]

Agreed Jake....my "beef" wasnt with the products they put out, it was how distorted the message became in the telephone game by the time it got to politicians and news stations. Although i think they could have done more, especially in regards to the hours after Bloomberg's Saturday press conference. But thats not really the issue i guess.

For sure. I don't pretend to know exactly what occurs between Bloomberg on one end and the NWS on the other side, but having seen the products they put out, it wasn't the NWS downplaying this. I think the entire line of communication needs to be re-examined to determine where the message got so scrambled, or perhaps in the future make it much more direct between the two ends (unless of course it was Bloomberg who was told directly and then took his own opinion over the scientists', but that's a whole other thing...)

[LocoAko]

not that you need reminding, but Bloomberg told an absolute lie on Sunday when he said that the NWS never told them on Saturday that the Raritan Bay would exhibit possible record coastal flooding. Mount Holly certainly mentioned that area specifically in their Saturday package BEFORE his presser. If a tree falls in the forest ...

This too. Though I also heard Christie tell this lie, IIRC ("they told me last night the Raritan wouldn't be affected, and now they're saying it's gonna get the worst of it"). I'm most certain the NWS didn't tell you that...

[famartin]

This too. Though I also heard Christie tell this lie, IIRC ("they told me last night the Raritan wouldn't be affected, and now they're saying it's gonna get the worst of it"). I'm most certain the NWS didn't tell you that...

Well, maybe there was confusion between the Raritan RIVER and Raritan BAY. I don't think the RIVER flooded, but the bay most certainly did. Since the Raritan is tidal up to about New Brunswick, they were affected as well.

[Rainshadow]

Its criminal what the NHC did now millions of people won't get insurance money for this since it wasn't a hurricane when it hit the area

Insurance companies have a higher hurricane deductible with most policies. Its just the opposite effect of this post, not being a hurricane at landfall (some policies may have hurricane force gusts, not sure about that part) prevents the higher deductibles from kicking in.

[famartin]

Insurance companies have a higher hurricane deductible with most policies. Its just the opposite effect of this post, not being a hurricane at landfall (some policies may have hurricane force gusts, not sure about that part) prevents the higher deductibles from kicking in.

Yes, NHC actually is forcing insurance companies to pay more by having declared it a non-hurricane at landfall. So they're helping the people who were affected.

[famartin]

Yes, NHC actually is forcing insurance companies to pay more by having declared it a non-hurricane at landfall. So they're helping the people who were affected.

Which is not to say NHC had an agenda in doing this. Just that it doesn't hurt anyone in that particular facet of this storm's aftermath.

[uncle W]

never new there was a difference between hurricane winds and hurricane force winds when making an insurance claim...it sounds like a way of ripping off customers...

[Sundog]

never new there was a difference between hurricane winds and hurricane force winds when making an insurance claim...it sounds like a way of ripping off customers...

Are you the least bit surprised? I'm surprised they don't chalk up most natural disasters as acts of God. Though if they did they would have a comprehensive "acts of God" insurance that would cost you a fortune

[Rainshadow]

never new there was a difference between hurricane winds and hurricane force winds when making an insurance claim...it sounds like a way of ripping off customers...

Uncle,

A couple of Googled articles beside this one are out there:

http://business.time...ners-thousands/

[Ed Lizard]

NY and New Jersey might need a government mandated pool of all insurers who provide service in the state forced to write policies for coastal residents..

http://www.twia.org/AboutTWIA/tabid/56/Default.aspx

Texas did it after Celia. I think Florida has it as well.