NYCSuburbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 314 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0236 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 41.20N 72.12W 10/29/2012 M81 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET MESONET Strange, the public information statement shows it was 84 mph: 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 84 303 PM 10/29 MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Worse times ahead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 No, it may be worse, we could see winds in the Metro switch SE now early which may pile alot of water, especially places like Freeport. Gotcha, but wasn't that going to happen anyways? I would have thought the storm surge would be worse if the center would stay over the water longer because that would give it more time to push the surge on shore, and then the SE winds would follow after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I will be the first to say it: this storm has definitely under-produced at my location here in Middlesex County, NJ. Gusts have approached 60MPH, but there has been very little damage. I just drove 15 miles through the area and only found small branches in the road and 1 small tree down. No power lines down. Clearly, when this storm is reviewed, the most significant aspect will have been the storm surge combined with the astro. tides. Of course, my lights just flickered as I was writing this. AGAIN, I am speaking only of my area in terms of the wind and rain. Obviously, this has been devastating south and east of here. Its worked out close to what I felt wind wise so far....40-50 with gusts 60-70 and some isolated 80s or so right on the coast or Islands. Hopefully we don't get anything to nuts this evening on the switchover to the S winds...models show only 65kts off the deck by 01-03Z so probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 strongest winds are occuring right now, should be much calmer by midnight...the barrier islands of NJ are getting destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Huge fooking wave in Cape May, NJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gotcha, but wasn't that going to happen anyways? I would have thought the storm surge would be worse if the center would stay over the water longer because that would give it more time to push the surge on shore, and then the SE winds would follow after. If you look at the angle, SE winds actually push more water into the bight and onto the south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Its worked out close to what I felt wind wise so far....40-50 with gusts 60-70 and some isolated 80s or so right on the coast or Islands. Hopefully we don't get anything to nuts this evening on the switchover to the S winds...models show only 65kts off the deck by 01-03Z so probably not. yea, south winds will be lower in the 40-55mph range. Strogest winds are basically now till around 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Power cut off for a second, I hope it doesn't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Huge fooking wave in Cape May, NJ: wall of water for cape may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 comparing coney island to seaside hights on channel 7, its a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I still don't feel like the gusts are mixing down efficiently here in Westchester. We have 110kt 850mb winds approaching the area and yet I don't think we're seeing winds over 50mph here. There are times when the wind almost completely shuts down, and then kicks back up momentarily. It's not a sustained hurricane roar. Classic issue with the mainland disrupting the winds due to friction. Always happens with these tropical systems. Really hard to get big winds away from the coast from these systems. Its always gonna be much windier at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 yea, south winds will be lower in the 40-55mph range. Strogest winds are basically now till around 6. upton disagrees....they think strongest gusts occur when winds switch to S-SE after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 strongest winds are occuring right now, should be much calmer by midnight...the barrier islands of NJ are getting destroyed Strongly disagree. The windiest part of the storm for inland areas is still ahead of us. Gusts over 50mph will continue through tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 comparing coney island to seaside hights on channel 7, its a world of difference. We get it. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I was in Freeport last night and this morning. This mornings surge fell short of Irene's surge as I was there at Irene's landfall. This afternoon/evening will be a diff story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Lights just flickered here in Southern Somerset County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Classic issue with the mainland disrupting the winds due to friction. Always happens with these tropical systems. Really hard to get big winds away from the coast from these systems. Its always gonna be much windier at the coast. I think Upton's idea of 70-80mph winds here may bust, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I will be the first to say it: this storm has definitely under-produced at my location here in Middlesex County, NJ. Gusts have approached 60MPH, but there has been very little damage. I just drove 15 miles through the area and only found small branches in the road and 1 small tree down. No power lines down. Clearly, when this storm is reviewed, the most significant aspect will have been the storm surge combined with the astro. tides. Of course, my lights just flickered as I was writing this. AGAIN, I am speaking only of my area in terms of the wind and rain. Obviously, this has been devastating south and east of here. Thank you....Ditto in my area. I dont think ive seen, heard, felt anything near 60MPH gusts...there arent even branches down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like a hurricane here in Colts Neck. Tremendous roaring of the trees right now. Gusted to 46mph thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 upton disagrees....they think strongest gusts occur when winds switch to S-SE after landfall. Shocking, because they use logic with the LLJ over head the next few hours and the improving lapse rates after the storm is inland which could help mix down the winds overhead..with a 900mb wind max of 70+kts overhead at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Classic issue with the mainland disrupting the winds due to friction. Always happens with these tropical systems. Really hard to get big winds away from the coast from these systems. Its always gonna be much windier at the coast. The HRRR actually shows this effect over LI too with pinks showing 70-80 gusts but Nassau itself highlighted more yellow. The winds being SE would likely have added more speed, exactly why I'm saying be cautious this evening. High RES models show Nassau./Queens/Bklyn being a focus from 23-01 for some possible very strong SE'lies....less rain and the sun down hopefully mitigates things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Huge fooking wave in Cape May, NJ: that is an area where the storm isnt underforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 ALL NWP IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A BAND OF VERY STRONG 925 MB WINDS OF 70-90 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER BELOW THAT...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY...COULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN...SO AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED IN NE-E FLOW DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS 90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Folks we've got at least 12-15 more hours of intense winds - I wouldn't be crying bust. Just b/c power isn't out yet doesn't mean anything. As Sandy transitions less warm core, wind field will grow and the strongest gusts inland should occur overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 No, it may be worse, we could see winds in the Metro switch SE now early which may pile alot of water, especially places like Freeport. The same could be said for CT, correct? Also we finally got some rain here...accompanied by some good gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Definitely no underperformance here on the UES of Manhattan. On the ground at head height, my Kestrel maxed out at 35mph. Those of you who have used one of those know how impressive that is. Tons of medium sized branches down, East River is splashing over onto the FDR . . . at 1 hour past LOW tide. This is the highest impact storm since 1992, easily, and its clearly going to exceed 1992 by a good amount when its all set and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Shocking, because they use logic with the LLJ over head the next few hours and the improving lapse rates after the storm is inland which could help mix down the winds overhead..with a 900mb wind max of 70+kts overhead at that time. any chance you can explain what mechanism will mix those winds down to the surface? much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane Atlantic City pressure now 958.7 mb (28.31") breaking city's all-time record of 960.7 mb (28.37"). #Sandy #njwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.