CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I know some folks think I overreacted leading up but honestly my gut was wrenching when the NHC directors tweets came out. I actually read them all wrong and thought he was saying warnings would carry up the coast, once Mat Mfer posted what the entire convo was it hit me. I still also believe the downgrade for 6 hours to TS and the blitz that went across every media channel in the country contributed to a let down in guard and that MAY have been Bloombergs info that he ran with. People in New England are, in general, more hurricane savvy. At least here people really took the warnings seriously. Other places yeah there was a whole lot that went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Ryan I watched those newscasts again just now and still can not believe what happened. And Bob be happy you were in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I've been waiting a while for the dust to settle and gather my thoughts to blog about the NHC decision. It's funny the longer that goes on and the more I see the more I get angry about it. I figured it would be the opposite and wanted to see if I was being irrational in the beginning. Well our mission statement is to protect lives and property. I have a hard time rationalizing how that decision did either. We throw up winter headlines all the time for the "first snowfall" or "holiday snowfall" despite no shot to reach criteria. We do it to alert the public during perceived higher threat times. How would Sandy be any different is the question that I can't seem to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 rryan I watched those newscasts again just now and still can not believe what happened. And Bob be happy you were in the screw zone. It's funny watching those newscasts agin I didn't mention the NHC's decision or lack of warnings once. In a situation like this talking about the NHC or the exact warning/watch/advisory in effect does more harm than good. That's exactly what the NWS doesn't want to do. Having said that what made the event interesting to cover for me personally was that were forced to go all impact. Which is what we should really strive to do anyway. No getting bogged down in the semantics just totally impact, time table, and preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 It's funny watching those newscasts agin I didn't mention the NHC's decision or lack of warnings once. In a situation like this talking about the NHC or the exact warning/watch/advisory in effect does more harm than good. That's exactly what the NWS doesn't want to do. Having said that what made the event interesting to cover for me personally was that were forced to go all impact. Which is what we should really strive to do anyway. No getting bogged down in the semantics just totally impact, time table, and preparation. When was the decision exactly made, date , time? Your hurricane warning graphic with the flags flying got me thinking, wonder if they flew those at the CG stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Ryan I watched those newscasts again just now and still can not believe what happened. And Bob be happy you were in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 When was the decision exactly made, date , time? Your hurricane warning graphic with the flags flying got me thinking, wonder if they flew those at the CG stations? I don't remember. I think Saturday morning we found out about it in NWS Chat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 When was the decision exactly made, date , time? Your hurricane warning graphic with the flags flying got me thinking, wonder if they flew those at the CG stations? This is] a Coast Guard initiative to reinforce the Coast Guard’s role as lifesavers, reaffirm to local communities the Coast Guard’s role as experts concerning local boating matters and visually communicate ... the lesson of Hurricane Katrina to take personal responsibility for individual safety,” said Rear Adm. David Pekoske in an announcement May 30. Some marinas and stations voluntarily have carried on the tradition of hoisting such flags, but participation was spotty. The Coast Guard hopes that residents in storm-prone areas will see the flags and listen to National Oceanographic and Atmospherics Administration radio broadcasts for further details, officials say. According to NOAA, more than half the country’s population lives along the coasts. In 2003, roughly 153 million people lived in 673 coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I don't remember. I think Saturday morning we found out about it in NWS Chat? Pretty sure the issue came up Friday, which would make sense for the Saturday notification of partners. And you point about impacts is the real take home I think. It shouldn't matter if it was called Sandy or not, if it was a hurricane or post-tropical. The impacts are the same, and that's what we should be making a better effort to hammer home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Steve I know the Old Saybrook PD put the flags up across town. NWS decision be damned they were flying them at Town Hall as they've done for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Pretty sure the issue came up Friday, which would make sense for the Saturday notification of partners. And you point about impacts is the real take home I think. It shouldn't matter if it was called Sandy or not, if it was a hurricane or post-tropical. The impacts are the same, and that's what we should be making a better effort to hammer home. Yeah I think it's a bigger indictment of the entire watch/warning system that a semantic/technical argument results in towns, cities, states, and citizens not taking appropriate action when a hurricane warning was not issued. Based on the forecast impacts the reaction in a perfect world would have been the same hurricane warning or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Steve I know the Old Saybrook PD put the flags up across town. NWS decision be damned they were flying them at Town Hall as they've done for years. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yeah I think it's a bigger indictment of the entire watch/warning system that a semantic/technical argument results in towns, cities, states, and citizens not taking appropriate action when a hurricane warning was not issued. Based on the forecast impacts the reaction in a perfect world would have been the same hurricane warning or not. I know that next month we'll be issuing decision support briefs to the local authorities we forecast for, explaining the specific impacts that they should expect from "significant" events, with watch/warning statements more of an aside. The goal being to let the proper people know what to prepare for. Generally speaking we don't have to worry about our partners in the media as much, because you understand us and we know that you can convey that to your viewers in a way that they'll understand. However, not every EM cares as much about the weather when it comes to their job. Some are very weather savvy and proactive, others not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I know that next month we'll be issuing decision support briefs to the local authorities we forecast for, explaining the specific impacts that they should expect from "significant" events, with watch/warning statements more of an aside. The goal being to let the proper people know what to prepare for. Generally speaking we don't have to worry about our partners in the media as much, because you understand us and we know that you can convey that to your viewers in a way that they'll understand. However, not every EM cares as much about the weather when it comes to their job. Some are very weather savvy and proactive, others not so much. And I think in some markets the media is not very weather savvy which creates all sorts of issues. Some stations have entire weather staffs with little or no meteorological training making hand holding on impacts from the NWS imperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Boy that article Ryan linked is pretty painful for the Met community. Look back at the lead up threads when they dropped H warnings, lots of well educated folks were aghast.We have to give so much credit to our local offices and Media Mets who hammered the surge aspects so hard, unfortunately most of the GP has been spoon fed since birth what a hurricane can do and really have no clue what ET means or represents. When your mission statement contains the words save lives and you make a decision based on textbook definitions that may, or probably likely cost lives, revaluation and an outside non Govt inquiry should take place. heads should roll, period. if they didn't have the job of protecting lives then i couldn't give a crap, but its really sad the decisons that they stated publically (not wanting to confuse the public when warnings are drop'd as the storm approaches , they'd rather assume the public doesn't take it serously from the beginning! i mean they are either that out of touch with the reality of the way the public perceives the threat of a storm or they are just tip toeing around their prime reason/ desire to cling to strict definitions /to hell w/ the consequences.... showing they "don't get it" i.e their mission. its not like people are asking them to put up a hurricane warning for a storm that completed a transition 2000 miles from the coast. Put up hurricane warnings /watches 48 hours out, put them up! you think people will see a hurricane warning up for 42 of the 48 hours prior to the storm , then as the storm starts to hit and the tide has already risen higher than 99/100 nor'easters prior that "Needed" switch in warnings (if they really , really , really can't wait 6 more hours or so) do you think such a switch will have the public wandering thru the streets with speedos thinking there is no storm? the public would just perceive that as additional warnings, even if the nhc cant wait 6 more hours to after landfall to downgrade. It's not a slippery slope of changing NHC decisions making en masse, its an isolated incident and 1 in a 75 year event that had a hurricane to right before landfall, and impacting a wide area of population centers, it should have been a lay up and a no-brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 And I think in some markets the media is not very weather savvy which creates all sorts of issues. Some stations have entire weather staffs with little or no meteorological training making hand holding on impacts from the NWS imperative. I think that's part of the reason why local WFOs are so important. You get a feel for which (if any) media outlets need to be led along more than others. I remember being very impressed with the relationship between DVN and local TV stations when I first got the job out there. Never had to worry about mixed messages, and even got feedback on how best to handle headlines with fog/freezing fog advisories that became regional policy. Which makes it all very concerning when you hear things like this...http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/help-wanted-national-weather-service-seeks-financial-chief-to-institute-employee-reductions/2012/11/16/89280c82-3029-11e2-9f50-0308e1e75445_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I think that's part of the reason why local WFOs are so important. You get a feel for which (if any) media outlets need to be led along more than others. I remember being very impressed with the relationship between DVN and local TV stations when I first got the job out there. Never had to worry about mixed messages, and even got feedback on how best to handle headlines with fog/freezing fog advisories that became regional policy. Which makes it all very concerning when you hear things like this...http://www.washingto...75445_blog.html the internal investigations to the misalocation of millons is one big "LOL". internal investigation= joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I think that's part of the reason why local WFOs are so important. You get a feel for which (if any) media outlets need to be led along more than others. I remember being very impressed with the relationship between DVN and local TV stations when I first got the job out there. Never had to worry about mixed messages, and even got feedback on how best to handle headlines with fog/freezing fog advisories that became regional policy. Which makes it all very concerning when you hear things like this...http://www.washingto...75445_blog.html Agreed. Article made me cringe. If anything what Sandy taught us was the importance of local offices and how the broader message can get lost from entities like NHC. While I had many gripes with the NHC I couldn't have been any more thrilled with how BOX and OKX handled Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 the internal investigations to the misalocation of millons is one big "LOL". internal investigation= joke. Well as I understand it the funds were going to make sure they had enough money left to pay employees for the rest of the fiscal years in question. However, they weren't put through the proper channels hence the misappropriation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Agreed. Article made me cringe. If anything what Sandy taught us was the importance of local offices and how the broader message can get lost from entities like NHC. While I had many gripes with the NHC I couldn't have been any more thrilled with how BOX and OKX handled Sandy. It's all penny wise, pound foolish. It will end up costing the government more in the end. Even poorly forecast marginal events will add up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Wow at the last couple of pics, Cat what surge is this? http://www.pictometry.com/sandy/?goback=.gde_80469_member_184290345 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow at the last couple of pics, Cat what surge is this? http://www.pictometr...ember_184290345 wow i think the primary reason the damage was greater than typicaly cat 1 surge is multiple reasons 1. the radius of gale force winds being so extensive 2. having enough duration to create "mature seas" 3. the wind direction pushing the water and associated wave action into the shore and also not really "letting" the tide go out . all 3 of these reasons pretty much worked synergistially w/ each other to make the total water rise worse and the damage so far reaching. You really can't stress the total IKE of this storm enough. when you have record IKE you will have memorable widespread coastal flooding. when the winds are onshore for vast duration of event and it apporaches from a horrific angle , that flooding becomes historic in many areas IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Wow at the last couple of pics, Cat what surge is this? http://www.pictometr...ember_184290345 Last pic you can see some of the houses were secured to the foundation a lot better than others. Hopefully when they rebuild, the don't do it in the quickiest, cheapest way possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/before-after-hurricane-sandy-photos_n_2068996.html These pictures have obviously been around for a couple weeks but I still can't believe some of the before/after pictures... especially the one of Mantoloking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/before-after-hurricane-sandy-photos_n_2068996.html These pictures have obviously been around for a couple weeks but I still can't believe some of the before/after pictures... especially the one of Mantoloking Mantoloking was wiped clean in some areas...with a "sand bar" connecting the sea and the bay over areas where homes and streets once were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 My cousin lives in Hoboken NJ and when I saw him today he said they really havent been doing much clean up or anything in his area.. He has only been back to his place 3 times and just about everything he had is ruined.. He was only able to save a few tvs that he had to bring to the third floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 storm surge data in USGS, Weekapaug, Fairfield shown here, all others can be found here http://ga.water.usgs...-NLD-030WL.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 If you know how to use GIS, some incredible records here http://54.243.149.253/explorer/?open=c07fae08c20c4117bdb8e92e3239837e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 From LWX I can't believe how lucky Long Island Sound was to get those surge values and be 4 hours from high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 What's the 12.65? I thought Stamford was 11.22'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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