Cane Sandy Obs-New England

[CT Rain]

lets talk wind, here is the official 1/2 designations, winds were at max 90 or so. with the type of tree damage we saw in spots was this 2 damage with 1 winds? 2-Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds 1 74-95 mph

64-82 kt

119-153 km/h Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. 2 96-110 mph

83-95 kt

154-177 km/h Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Well none of us had cat 1 winds even on Long Island.

I imagine there were cat 1 conditions in portions of coastal NJ, however.

[Ginx snewx]

Well none of us had cat 1 winds even on Long Island.

I imagine there were cat 1 conditions in portions of coastal NJ, however.

gust were in the 90 range no? so the wind category is no good either, LI had extensive tree, pole damage

[forkyfork]

then there is this with surge mentioned, would you consider this 1 surge?

for the region, yes. a 3 would produce a 20' surge

[CT Rain]

then there is this with surge mentioned, would you consider this 1 surge?

One 74-95 mph No real damage to building structures. Damage primarly to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage

Two 96-110 mph Some roofing material, door, and window damage to buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

Three 111-130 mph Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris

Well those descriptors are pretty dumb... I don't think I've seen anyone use them. In fact given a certain SS value when you look at the SLOSH info you can see devastating potential. The Cat 1 SLOSH maps for a storm with that trajectory and forward speed show the kind of inundation that occurred taking into account geography.

I don't think anyone uses those descriptors that you found online.

[CT Rain]

gust were in the 90 range no? so the wind category is no good either, LI had extensive tree, pole damage

Huh? There were not sustained hurricane force winds on Long Island.

[Ginx snewx]

See my point is a 10 foot surge is not Cat 1

[CT Rain]

for the region, yes. a 3 would produce a 20' surge

Yes and that's what state and local governments plan for.

If you look at the inundation maps they worked wonderfully for a cat 1 hurricane. Not sure what Ginx's issue is here.

The issue was that people didn't take the threat seriously enough for all sorts of reasons as we've discussed.

[Ginx snewx]

Huh? There were not sustained hurricane force winds on Long Island.

Never said there was I was saying the damage caused by 90 mph GUSTS did more damage than SS would indicate more like the Cat 2 damage side bar.

[CT Rain]

See my point is a 10 foot surge is not Cat 1

Not sure where you're getting this info or the point of your posts lol.

The storm, which was a cat 1 prior to landfall, produced damage (wind and surge) consistent with that kind of storm for our region.

The NWS, emergency managers, etc. don't use the type of information your posting.

[CoastalWx]

The destruction on the Jersey Shore was just waiting to happen when all that protects you is a 3' sand dune. I mean it was just there waiting to happen.

[Ginx snewx]

Well those descriptors are pretty dumb... I don't think I've seen anyone use them. In fact given a certain SS value when you look at the SLOSH info you can see devastating potential. The Cat 1 SLOSH maps for a storm with that trajectory and forward speed show the kind of inundation that occurred taking into account geography.

I don't think anyone uses those descriptors that you found online.

Huh they came off the NHC and A sites, the govt produces them, we are only as smart as the info we are given. You realize the general public is not you it what they see on the NHC govt site Ryan

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/laescae.html

[Ginx snewx]

Not sure where you're getting this info or the point of your posts lol.

The storm, which was a cat 1 prior to landfall, produced damage (wind and surge) consistent with that kind of storm for our region.

The NWS, emergency managers, etc. don't use the type of information your posting.

Uh better check my links dude LOL

[CT Rain]

Uh better check my links dude LOL

You love derailing threads haha.

But the NHC site has information about wind damage. Wind damage I saw was consistent with a powerful tropical storm.

I don't know anyone who uses that surge information and the SS scale you posted about.

[Ginx snewx]

Wtf really? Not derailing asked pertinent questions about the SS, whatever.

[forkyfork]

the large radius of gale force winds also helped increase damage

[bobbutts]

The max winds have very little to do with surge and everything to do with how the storm is rated on the SS scale. It's a fundamentally retarded way to classify the most damaging aspect of storms. SS Far too simplistic for a scenario like Sandy essentially worthless to the general public at the most important times (Katrina, Sandy).

[Ginx snewx]

the large radius of gale force winds also helped increase damage

Yea hence the insane IKE. A lot of posters at the time said it was not a big deal that H warnings were not given out, I think sentiment has turned drastically once they found out what the GP actually thought. There is and always has been a disconnect between institutional awareness, thinking and actual GP perception. Bridging that gap is the key .Having so many different media, Govt outlets providing mixed messages is part of the problem. Depending on what source you heard you heard different ops, we in CT were lucky, our Gov was consistent with the media for the most part although on Sat the sh it hit the fan when they down graded to a TS overnight and everyone heard on their drive in to work, Sandy downgraded to TS. The public then was lulled for a time. GP hears that says , ah yet another false alarm, turns off their own personal radar only to find out Sunday that the sh it is about to hit the fan, by then for the unlucky, too late.

[Amped]

I admit people (Or maybe just Mayor Bloomberg) would of understood the severity a little better if the NHC had kept it a hurricane and issued hurricane warnings. However the media never downplays a storm, so if anyone was ill prepared in NJ it was because of Irene's Meh pewrformance in NJ last year, not because of the hurricane declaration.

The mayor Bloomberg comment wasn't horrible, but there had to have been a lack of direct communication between NWS and local authorities in order for that to take place, AKA Bloomberg was getting his forecast from his friends misinterpretation of AL Roker, which needs to be fixed.

[CT Rain]

Odd developments... apparently the initial Service Assessment team was told the NHC was off limits in their investigation.

Seriously?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/weather-service-cancels-review-of-performance-during-hurricane-sandy-15252

If that's the case then it's a good thing that the SA was terminated because it would have been a waste of time.

[OceanStWx]

Odd developments... apparently the initial Service Assessment team was told the NHC was off limits in their investigation.

Seriously?

http://www.climatece...ane-sandy-15252

If that's the case then it's a good thing that the SA was terminated because it would have been a waste of time.

Well at least the emails I've seen today state that if the broader government assessment doesn't take place the NWS will reinstate their own service assessment team to review Sandy. Although some could argue involving more government agencies would muddy the water.

[CT Rain]

Well at least the emails I've seen today state that if the broader government assessment doesn't take place the NWS will reinstate their own service assessment team to review Sandy. Although some could argue involving more government agencies would muddy the water.

Yeah, that's what I've heard as well.

I hope the broader review doesn't just gloss over some of the social science aspects of Sandy that I'm sure the SA would look at closely. The part about the SA finding the NHC off limits though was quite odd.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah, that's what I've heard as well.

I hope the broader review doesn't just gloss over some of the social science aspects of Sandy that I'm sure the SA would look at closely. The part about the SA finding the NHC off limits though was quite odd.

Hopefully that's just the trip to NHC that's off limits, otherwise there are already too many cooks in the kitchen on this one.

[N. OF PIKE]

Not sure where you're getting this info or the point of your posts lol.

The storm, which was a cat 1 prior to landfall, produced damage (wind and surge) consistent with that kind of storm for our region.

The NWS, emergency managers, etc. don't use the type of information your posting.

with all respect the damage from the entire surge i.e North carolina to S coastal SNE was not consistent with a cat 1 storm. I'm not sure of any cat one kind of storm that is not a very large outlier )in regard to wind field radius) that has produced such a wide area of storm surge damage and storm surge heights.

considering storm surge leads to the majority of fatalities in hurricanes it really is a huge mistake for the NHC to try and attatch arbitrary numbers in regards to surge height with only maximum sustained winds (i.e category's) because surge is more closely related to the fetch of gale force winds then a narrow area of max. sustained winds.

[CT Rain]

with all respect the damage from the entire surge i.e North carolina to S coastal SNE was not consistent with a cat 1 storm. I'm not sure of any cat one kind of storm that is not a very large outlier )in regard to wind field radius) that has produced such a wide area of storm surge damage and storm surge heights.

considering storm surge leads to the majority of fatalities in hurricanes it really is a huge mistake for the NHC to try and attatch arbitrary numbers in regards to surge height with only maximum sustained winds (i.e category's) because surge is more closely related to the fetch of gale force winds then a narrow area of max. sustained winds.

Area-wise you're correct I think that it was an unusually large area for a typical hurricane.

All I'm saying is that the surge (even where it was most severe) was consistent with a Cat 1 hurricane with that angle of approach. There's no question a hurricane making landfall south of NYC moving WNW is going to produce a more severe surge in NYC than a hurricane that's moving NNE into Long Island and CT.

[Ginx snewx]

Boy that article Ryan linked is pretty painful for the Met community. Look back at the lead up threads when they dropped H warnings, lots of well educated folks were aghast.We have to give so much credit to our local offices and Media Mets who hammered the surge aspects so hard, unfortunately most of the GP has been spoon fed since birth what a hurricane can do and really have no clue what ET means or represents. When your mission statement contains the words save lives and you make a decision based on textbook definitions that may, or probably likely cost lives, revaluation and an outside non Govt inquiry should take place.

[CT Rain]

Boy that article Ryan linked is pretty painful for the Met community. Look back at the lead up threads when they dropped H warnings, lots of well educated folks were aghast.We have to give so much credit to our local offices and Media Mets who hammered the surge aspects so hard, unfortunately most of the GP has been spoon fed since birth what a hurricane can do and really have no clue what ET means or represents. When your mission statement contains the words save lives and you make a decision based on textbook definitions that may, or probably likely cost lives, revaluation and an outside non Govt inquiry should take place.

Yeah it's pretty bad.

[CT Rain]

I've been waiting a while for the dust to settle and gather my thoughts to blog about the NHC decision. It's funny the longer that goes on and the more I see the more I get angry about it. I figured it would be the opposite and wanted to see if I was being irrational in the beginning.

[CT Rain]

This is how I handled the threat/message in the 2 days leading up to Sandy. The first is from Saturday 10/27 and the second is from Sunday 10/28.

[Ginx snewx]

I've been waiting a while for the dust to settle and gather my thoughts to blog about the NHC decision. It's funny the longer that goes on and the more I see the more I get angry about it. I figured it would be the opposite and wanted to see if I was being irrational in the beginning.

I know some folks think I overreacted leading up but honestly my gut was wrenching when the NHC directors tweets came out. I actually read them all wrong and thought he was saying warnings would carry up the coast, once Mat Mfer posted what the entire convo was it hit me. I still also believe the downgrade for 6 hours to TS and the blitz that went across every media channel in the country contributed to a let down in guard and that MAY have been Bloombergs info that he ran with.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sandy ended up not impressing me.