wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro initialized at 961.5mb for 12z this morning (vs. actual 951-2mb) As discussed, not clear how this discrepancy extrapolates going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro is into C NJ between 36-42hr. does euro take it out east of 70w then loop west/wnw or is more like straight down the center of nhc cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 does euro take it out east of 70w then loop west/wnw or is more like straight down the center of nhc cone 12z tomorrow it makes it to 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sounds like a little north of 00z.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sounds like a little north of 00z.? Its nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro is a crushing blow. Seems like we have concensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Anyone else starting to see more of a Northward pull the last 2-3 frames? Wobble or starting to feel the effects of the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WRF shows gusts for an extended duration across much of CT/RI/MA reaching 80MPH http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/nmmwrf.gust_animate_1h.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm still surprised at the wind forecast up here...the zones from BTV seem just as bad as SNE. Tomorrow BTV is going up to 50mph, then 75mph tomorrow night, and 65mph on Tuesday for gusts. I'm surprised BOXisnt higher based on NWS this far north. Monday Cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Windy with highs around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph...increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Very windy with lows in the mid 50s. East winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. Tuesday Rain likely. Very windy with highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro gets it down to 947mb just before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm still surprised at the wind forecast up here...the zones from BTV seem just as bad as SNE. Tomorrow BTV is going up to 50mph, then 75mph tomorrow night, and 65mph on Tuesday for gusts. I'm surprised BOXisnt higher based on NWS this far north. Monday Cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Windy with highs around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph...increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Very windy with lows in the mid 50s. East winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. Tuesday Rain likely. Very windy with highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. yeah but no ones power will go out except on the shorelines so it's okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro gets it down to 947mb just before landfall. That would mean when everything is said and done, it only drops 5 more mb? I think that's a little conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Westerly orders Mandatory evacuation of all coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 yeah but no ones power will go out except on the shorelines so it's okay. The news should send crews to Litchfield county CT....it will be much worse there than the south coast. What a conspiracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro gets it down to 947mb just before landfall. That's 13mb below the NJ record I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The news should send crews to Litchfield county CT....it will be much worse there than the south coast. What a conspiracy. C'mon Will, you know what I'm getting at. Obviously the shoreline will be much much worse but to say that only a few people north of 84 will lose power is stupid. You can't compare two unlike things...the threat on the shoreline is obviously a different animal, I'm not an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Westerly orders Mandatory evacuation of all coastal areas No Hurricane party at Paddy's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When we track a typical nor'easters, a 10mb initialization discrepancy is a big error... is it that theses differences are not as significant when we are dealing with such a low range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Random question, how much does wind tunneling increase gusts in the city? Would appreciate an answer. -Rob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 most models suggest around a 10mb intensification before landfall...so I think the the initialization error may lead to it being 5-10mb too high with landfall pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 C'mon Will, you know what I'm getting at. Obviously the shoreline will be much much worse but to say that only a few people north of 84 will lose power is stupid. You can't compare two unlike things...the threat on the shoreline is obviously a different animal, I'm not an idiot. We all know the shoreline is going to be a major and complete disaster, but anyone downplaying the wind threat inland just doesn't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm still surprised at the wind forecast up here...the zones from BTV seem just as bad as SNE. Tomorrow BTV is going up to 50mph, then 75mph tomorrow night, and 65mph on Tuesday for gusts. I'm surprised BOXisnt higher based on NWS this far north. yeah but no ones power will go out except on the shorelines so it's okay. Right in line with my comment. Either they are overestimating what we'll be getting for winds (I think they are) or underestimateing what the southern/coastal areas are getting (they probably are). There's no way they will be uniform like that. Just had my first 20mph 'gust'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Unprecedented evacuation here as the first selectman has issued mandatory evacuations for cat 4 storm surge. Evacuations stretch all the way to route 1. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Unprecedented evacuation here as the first selectman has issued mandatory evacuations for cat 4 storm surge. Evacuations stretch all the way to route 1. WOW Have you been booted? Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No hype straight up, coast is fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this was already posted but the 12z HWRF landfalls at ~934 mb...and it initialized the current pressure much better than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i think you can see the weakness that the N atlantic low temporarily has created to the ENE of sandy you can see some of her moisture streaming for that weakness http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this was already posted but the 12z HWRF landfalls at ~934 mb...and it initialized the current pressure much better than other models. as extreme as it is, it looks closer to reality then close to 950 as other models suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this was already posted but the 12z HWRF landfalls at ~934 mb...and it initialized the current pressure much better than other models. where in jersey does it LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.