OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 There are a quite a few people I've talked to who aren't buying that southern solution either. This is just such a weird situation so really nothing can be discounted here...you would have to think it'd be really difficult to see the system just get tugged completely west like that but who knows really. Just have to watch when it starts to make that more westerly move and go from there. It's also angle of approach. A 280 versus 290 degrees at landfall will mean the difference of quite a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's also angle of approach. A 280 versus 290 degrees at landfall will mean the difference of quite a few miles. Yes...this is huge and really can't be stated enough. Just another reason as to why you can't really go with a landfall at any one location at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gil absolutely chucking this morning wow. Click the link 22hGil Simmons NEWS8 CT @gilsimmons Here is my gust forecast for CT: http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121029wind_gust_forecast_for_connecticut… Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Who really knows what's going to happen form here...the longer the core stays over the Gulf Stream the more this will continue to intensify and remain fully tropical. And I would THINK that the longer it stays more tropical, the slower it would turn back NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will Sandy be able to maintain that pressure even after it passes NW of the gulf stream?. i.e. will the forcing mechanisms in place allow the storm to maintain itself prior to landfall? From what I have read doesnt imply it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And I would THINK that the longer it stays more tropical, the slower it would turn back NW? That's exactly what I would think as well. I know that the blocking upstream is strong but Sandy is JUST as strong and as been mentioned several times the stronger and bigger Sandy is the more she may resist to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 941.8 for pressure to be exact This is bad. Especially with the trajectory it is coming in on, piling that water in. Wow you guys may have worse case scenario. Another concern is trees. Storms like this just don't happen here and the trees aren't used to this long period of heavy rain and wind. I'm not sure enough people really understand how bad this is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Will Sandy be able to maintain that pressure even after it passes NW of the gulf stream?. i.e. will the forcing mechanisms in place allow the storm to maintain itself prior to landfall? From what I have read doesnt imply it will. I would think that once the phasing process begins to occur that Sandy will almost certainly maintain her strength, if not even deepen more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is bad. Especially with the trajectory it is coming in on, piling that water in. Wow you guys may have worse case scenario. Another concern is trees. Storms like this just don't happen here and the trees aren't used to this long period of heavy rain and wind. I'm not sure enough people really understand how bad this is looking. Couldn't agree more. Dealing with >24-HR period of high winds is just not good here...regardless if the soil moisture isn't as wet or trees are mainly bare. This is going to be extremely major no matter what. Sure soils as wet as they were prior to Irene or fully leaved trees would do much more but at this point it's just insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gil absolutely chucking this morning wow. Click the link 22hGil Simmons NEWS8 CT @gilsimmons Here is my gust forecast for CT: http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121029wind_gust_forecast_for_connecticut… Expand This is pretty serious...when you're talking gusts 80-90 mph you're now looking at the potential for roof damage and roofs to be blown off, especially up here where they may not be constructed as well as areas down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Couldn't agree more. Dealing with >24-HR period of high winds is just not good here...regardless if the soil moisture isn't as wet or trees are mainly bare. This is going to be extremely major no matter what. Sure soils as wet as they were prior to Irene or fully leaved trees would do much more but at this point it's just insignificant. Flooding will naturally be the main deal when it comes to extensive property damage and God forbid loss of life. The surge forecasts are just nuts. And this is for millions of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Oh man... Revised fcst for #Sandy: ~7ft storm surge now likely in Lower Manhattan, likely coming near high tide. Irene was 4.1ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Flooding will naturally be the main deal when it comes to extensive property damage and God forbid loss of life. The surge forecasts are just nuts. And this is for millions of people. I seriously hope everyone along the coast told to evacuate did so or will do so. I know there are those who want to ride it out but that is just foolish and selfish...they stay, then end up calling for help which just puts others in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 NYC in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NYC in serious trouble. Yes we are. I can't believe how much Sandy is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 this is going to be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there a possibility surge gets into zone b evac zones in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NYC in serious trouble. It seems city officials have grasped how serious the threat is at least. I still think people will be surprised after this evening's high tide at how bad it really got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I seriously hope everyone along the coast told to evacuate did so or will do so. I know there are those who want to ride it out but that is just foolish and selfish...they stay, then end up calling for help which just puts others in danger. Can't understand people who try and justify that. Think you're stopping looters? Let the surge take care of that... No subjective material is worth your life, none whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It seems city officials have grasped how serious the threat is at least. I still think people will be surprised after this evening's high tide at how bad it really got. My job wants me to go in today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 this is going to be something else. I think the outer cape can pull off 80-90mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If Gil is right and we all gust 80-90mph..this is going to be something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If Gil is right and we all gust 80-90mph..this is going to be something else I'll say. The tree loss is going to be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If Gil is right and we all gust 80-90mph..this is going to be something else I do not see that happening int he interior except places like the top of the Wachusett or really exposed 1500 feet ridgelines....maybe weenie ridge which is completely exposed to the east. My guess is like 60-70mph for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think the outer cape can pull off 80-90mph. After really seeing that 6 sigma easterly 925 jet forecast, I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Should be able to get home for max winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I do not see that happening int he interior except places like the top of the Wachusett or really exposed 1500 feet ridgelines....maybe weenie ridge which is completely exposed to the east. My guess is like 60-70mph for ORH. His map does show 70 for Northern CT, 80 for Central and 90 for the coast. (Gil Simmons Ch 8) So he does note that the intensity decreases somewhat as you head inland. (not that it matters all that much!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah 75k-80kts at 950....would think 80-90 is certainly possible for Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Max gusts so far: BOS: 36 knots ORH: 33 knots MQE: 39 knots PVD: 32 knots ACK: 36 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's gonna blow harder than Romo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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