Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Sandy VI disco


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not so tired... I guess hurricanes still don't muster up the kind of viewership that winter storms do.

I'm trying to get work done before we lose power (hopefully not). Gotten much windier in the last 20 or so minutes with gusts pushing 40. Chatham tide gauge is way up. Going to be an interesting morning. I like the faster timing of the newer models Sandy appears is on her way.

post-3232-0-72063000-1351493176_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not so tired... I guess hurricanes still don't muster up the kind of viewership that winter storms do.

??

Record viewership this weekend. Now's a perfect time for sleep man... tomorrow is gonna be a long day and night.

There are, however, plenty of lurkers... > 20 downloads of that euro map I posted in past hour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really? Maybe traffic is up. Seems like posts have been down compared to storms from two winters ago. People used to always post about the Euro. Or maybe I'm just wrong, that's possible. Already gusting between 30 and 40 which is cool. New ECMWF wind maps on Wundermaps shows much less significant winds than earlier maps. Curious to see what actually happens. Every University in Boston is closed tomorrow... wonder if this was an overreaction?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX update 234am:

Near term /through tonight/...

* high wind warnings for damaging winds across much of the region through Monday night with widespread power outages possible

* flood watches for heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches with locally up to 5 inches possible across the higher terrain

* coastal flood warnings issued for the south and east facing coasts with moderate coastal flooding likely...major coastal flooding possible along the South Coast and in Narragansett Bay

Northeast winds continue to increase in advance of Sandy...with sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 34 knots along the South Shore...cape and islands. Very light rain/drizzle also present with the onshore flow.

Expecting winds to increase dramatically between now and 8 am across southern New England. Winds expected to peak this afternoon and evening...before gradually diminishing overnight. After review of the 29/00z guidance...am liking the NAM solution the best. Remains to be seen how many of the details the NAM has resolved with the track of Sandy. Not planning on significant changes to the previous wind forecast across southern New England as it looks to be in very good shape.

The strong winds bring significant moisture flux convergence at the lower levels and will cause terrain-/upslope-enhanced precipitation. This is best reflected by the NAM...especially higher resolution versions of the model. This threat is addressed more in the hydrology section of the discussion. Probability of precipitation increase to categorical early today. A Flood Watch is in effect today into Tuesday.

Categorical probability of precipitation continue tonight as showers associated with Sandy Cross through our area. Continued risk for locally heavy rains. H850 wind field gradually diminishes over time as Sandy tracks overland...with the low-level jet continuing at 70 to 90 knots over our area to start...then diminishing to 40 to 60 knots late. High Wind Warning continues for our County Warning Area during this timeframe... still anticipating gusts to 60 to 70 kts over our County Warning Area during the night...but winds should begin to diminish towards daybreak.

Coastal flood and marine headlines are addressed later in this discussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

925WIND-4.gif

Here is Will's wind signal for eastern Mass. Easterly component of the wind at 925 mb is well into the -6 SD territory.

Yeah Will scared me into an all-nighter. I hate the idea of being without power but it seems like a very good bet. We're probably only about 10 mph from getting gusts around 50 and at that point I figure we'll start to see some outages. Only thing in our favor is not much rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah Will scared me into an all-nighter. I hate the idea of being without power but it seems like a very good bet. We're probably only about 10 mph from getting gusts around 50 and at that point I figure we'll start to see some outages. Only thing in our favor is not much rain

Outside the easterly upslope zones, rain does look like a quick hitter for most.

The op NAM and GFS 925 mb wind forecasts are even more impressive than that GEFS image too. The signal weakens with time, but even manages to hold together to keep -6 SD winds up into coastal Maine. Couple that with PWATs around +3 SD and I think the Whites will do very well on QPF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like 06z NAM wants to come into S NJ landfall around 6 or 7 pm tomorrow evening

Yeah, kind of surprised by the continued move south. NHC really had this nailed....their track has been outstanding. we'll have to see what we get for winds up here - still hoping we escape. Feel badly for all of those to our SW, devastating situation setting up. Good luck all, couple of quick hours of sleep with fingers crossed that this won't be too bad.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Outside the easterly upslope zones, rain does look like a quick hitter for most.

The op NAM and GFS 925 mb wind forecasts are even more impressive than that GEFS image too. The signal weakens with time, but even manages to hold together to keep -6 SD winds up into coastal Maine. Couple that with PWATs around +3 SD and I think the Whites will do very well on QPF.

Cool....6z NAM seems to have shifted south by a dozen or so miles. Not sure that will matter much for all the reasons you guys have discussed. We'll see, will get some good videos of the tides in the morning. Whether I still have power to post who knows. Hoping the severe storms of the last few years have taken out most of the weaker trees. Good luck.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool....6z NAM seems to have shifted south by a dozen or so miles. Not sure that will matter much for all the reasons you guys have discussed. We'll see, will get some good videos of the tides in the morning. Whether I still have power to post who knows. Hoping the severe storms of the last few years have taken out most of the weaker trees. Good luck.

Looks like it did shift south a few miles... good luck to you all up there... May the power Force be with you ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like it did shift south a few miles... good luck to you all up there... May the power Force be with you wink.png

Lol same down your way Yoda. It's too bad with this big community we've got....maybe there will be a way we can all help those hit the worst. Just looked quickly and Will/Scott etc have all been saying the few mile shifts don't matter and indeed the 6z still has that nasty signal up here. We are usually pretty resilient to power losses. I didn't really even lose power during the 05 blizzard, not at all during Irene etc. But....I guess I'm due!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...