Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This may be one of you guys' map...thought it was interesting. Pretty devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I just toyed around briefly with the momentum transfer tool in BUFKIT and at EWR it only maxes out at 45kts to the surface despite having 100kt winds at ~1600 m. Once the winds shift to the southeast tomorrow night there is 70kt winds at 900 hPa yet the momentum transfer is only printing out 27 kts. Is that tool not designed to handle situations like this? (I don't exactly know how it is calculated). It even shows the mixing layer tapping well into those 70+kt jets, so I'm not really sure why it's showing what it is.... seems odd. Has been the same for locations up and down the coast. It's not quite finding something to transfer to the surface. One would have to assume convective rains will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We're having a crew come from Indy, FL, and SFO. Lots of cancellations but one person's flight was moved up to arrive at 830AM. I think that's a low likelihood unless they can turn the plane around quickly. Jerry just returned from a medical conference in the Sheraton... 50% empty, people either cancelled or flew out early. Making an effort at to close an eye on IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Traffic was very heavy on I-93 in NH with all the Mass people headed home. I had to get off in CON and head west toward home then. GReat well above normal weekend in the Whites for our hike trip. Jerry just returned from a medical conference in the Sheraton... 50% empty, people either cancelled or flew out early. Making an effort at to close an eye on IR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Look at the winds for about 800-1,000 feet up...that is often where the gust potential can be quantified with a fairly high confidence. When you have convection, you can mix deeper into the LLJ...so that is a wildcard. But a quick and simple way to estimate gusts aside from the convection wildcard is looking at those cross sections and seeing what those winds speeds are doing as they dip below 1,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 00z GFS is alarming for my area. I'm riding this out near Trenton. The combination of sting jet prospects of upper level evaporation and steepening lower lapse rates will also make the right quadrant particularly interesting post-landfall despite the enlarging / non-tropical-like wind field. Agreed. What do you think for this area? GFS was south but wind fields were exceptionally impressive still/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Agreed. What do you think for this area? GFS was south but wind fields were exceptionally impressive still/. answer my question that I asked on facebook on air! I'm watching with a bunch of people, it'd be cool also before anyone else does it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Any minor shifts in the models now are basically irrelevant to the larger scale of impacts for SNE. The only thing that would cause a drastic change is if the models all of the sudden took the storm well out to the east with a wider turn or if they hooked it very early into the Delmarva peninsula. Both scenarios are quite unlikely at this point. Agreed that the track will not matter very much at all at this point.. but in theory a farther right hook and north landfall would prolong the period of east winds, and lower surface pressures, which would increase surge. Here's how the models are shaping up so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For the record...pretty cool: HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCES: 00Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN MONDAY BY DEFAULT 12Z UKMET TUESDAY BY DEFAULT 00Z NAM/18Z GFS WEDNESDAY BY DEFAULT THE 03Z NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK BEST MATCHES THE MODELS LISTED ABOVE. THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES RELATED TO SANDY NEAR THE 30TH PARALLEL REMAIN 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS EVENT, FROM AN IMPACT PERSPECTIVE FOR NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK CITY, IS THE SNOW HURRICANE OF 1804, WHICH HAD A PRESSURE AT LEAST AS LOW AS 977 HPA. NEW JERSEY'S LAST DIRECT HURRICANE IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEAST/OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN WAS THE SEPTEMBER 1903 HURRICANE. NEITHER ANALOG IS PARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE OTHERWISE AS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE CASES, EXPECTED TO BREAK ALL-TIME LOW PRESSURE RECORDS FOR NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY NEW YORK CITY, DELAWARE, AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL. THE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR WEST VIRGINIA, NOT NEW ENGLAND LIKE IN THE CASES OF THE 1804 SNOW HURRICANE, HURRICANE GINNY (1963), OR HURRICANE NOEL (2007). SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING SANDY'S TRACK, AS WELL AS WARNINGS AND FORECASTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW ENGLAND REGARDING ITS WIND AND OTHER IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Agreed. What do you think for this area? GFS was south but wind fields were exceptionally impressive still/. You see the big dry punch that quickly advects in 21z-00z and moves westward toward NY? This comes on the heels of a mid level wind max and will likely focus a very significant band of heavy rain/convection. I suspect wind gusts exceeding 65 MPH throughout the state will be possible, esp. with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's almost to 70W now based on the loops. We need a definite turn to the NNW quickly to get to the 12Z forecast position. I'm sure this thing is going to hook west, but I think some of these models are too sharp...can't see a system of this size turning on a dime like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's almost to 70W now based on the loops. We need a definite turn to the NNW quickly to get to the 12Z forecast position. I'm sure this thing is going to hook west, but I think some of these models are too sharp...can't see a system of this size turning on a dime like that. yeap, watching the same thing, weird the models all went to SNJ, I still think CNJ is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For the record...pretty cool: HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCES: 00Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN MONDAY BY DEFAULT 12Z UKMET TUESDAY BY DEFAULT 00Z NAM/18Z GFS WEDNESDAY BY DEFAULT THE 03Z NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK BEST MATCHES THE MODELS LISTED ABOVE. THE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES RELATED TO SANDY NEAR THE 30TH PARALLEL REMAIN 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS EVENT, FROM AN IMPACT PERSPECTIVE FOR NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK CITY, IS THE SNOW HURRICANE OF 1804, WHICH HAD A PRESSURE AT LEAST AS LOW AS 977 HPA. NEW JERSEY'S LAST DIRECT HURRICANE IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEAST/OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN WAS THE SEPTEMBER 1903 HURRICANE. NEITHER ANALOG IS PARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE OTHERWISE AS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE CASES, EXPECTED TO BREAK ALL-TIME LOW PRESSURE RECORDS FOR NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY NEW YORK CITY, DELAWARE, AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL. THE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR WEST VIRGINIA, NOT NEW ENGLAND LIKE IN THE CASES OF THE 1804 SNOW HURRICANE, HURRICANE GINNY (1963), OR HURRICANE NOEL (2007). SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING SANDY'S TRACK, AS WELL AS WARNINGS AND FORECASTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW ENGLAND REGARDING ITS WIND AND OTHER IMPACTS. 6 standard deviations is absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's almost to 70W now based on the loops. We need a definite turn to the NNW quickly to get to the 12Z forecast position. I'm sure this thing is going to hook west, but I think some of these models are too sharp...can't see a system of this size turning on a dime like that. It's around 70.5W isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looking at the eye feature it seems to be around 70.25. It will encounter the Gulf Stream soon. It's around 70.5W isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's around 70.5W isnt it? maybe a bit east of that, plane going back in I think, we will see.. does not matter much for us, just wondering if it will hit S or C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like Sandy is starting to make the turn... though will probably get to 70W just as she finishes her turn toward the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like Sandy is starting to make the turn... though will probably get to 70W just as she finishes her turn toward the NW just barely make it.. last pass was @ 04:58:00Z 35.017N 70.400W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Clearly almost to a due north now. Now lets see how sharp it can bend west. I have seen many a hurricane forecast to hook west and it seems like more often than not a big system like this resists it a bit longer than forecast. just barely make it.. last pass was @ 04:58:00Z 35.017N 70.400W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Posting this for no other reason than to look back in 17-18 hours. It's been right with most of the other guidance all day and still is...maybe a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can anyone tell me about this model? Has the strongest winds of any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Posting this for no other reason than to look back in 17-18 hours. It's been right with most of the other guidance all day and still is...maybe a big improvement. beginning to get nasty here..game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy hits that warmest eddy of water with the GS after 12Z. It has a few hours traversing that > 27C sst area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NHC 2am has Sandy moving N14mph, 950 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Euro seems to have sped up the timing in line with some of the other models into S/C NJ. If I'm reading it correctly it's at least a few hours ahead of that above NHC prog with landfall around 0zish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 quick read of Euro inits at 956.9 landfall ~945mb at 0z Tuesday, southern-half NJ definitely faster than prior Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 290600 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 29/05:08:20Z B. 34 deg 59 min N 070 deg 38 min W C. 700 mb 2646 m D. 46 kt E. 075 deg 19 nm F. 138 deg 54 kt G. 059 deg 57 nm H. 950 mb I. 10 C / 3050 m J. 13 C / 3048 m K. 9 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C22 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF308 2218A SANDY OB 23 MAX FL WIND 102 KT S QUAD 01:03:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 89 KT SW QUAD 05:46:30Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 196 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR MAX OUTBOUND SFC SFMR WIND 78KTS AT 05:36:30Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy looks to be strengthening right now. noticeable eyewall formation going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Interesting about improving structure ^^^ Turtlehurricane on main discussion thread thinking upgrade to 90mph warranted by last VDM with that 78kt surface wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm really surprised to see the board so dead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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