Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 down to 949.3 on last pass, heading NNE it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 davis wv, currently 35/35 at 4k can't wait to see snow pics over 2500' in wv/wmd/va/nc Do you know how much their forecast to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 pretty sure sandy is significantly east of the nhc track. You never know how much these differences matter.. sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Sandy currently at 70.4W moving NNE and looks like it will get close to 70W which the nhc track never did. anyways... sandy's eye is looking pretty awesome right now.. convection strengthening too on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM has 41 knots sustained at BOS tomorrow afternoon around 21z and winds of 70 knots around 950mb. The LLJ at 950mb maxes out near 80 knots in the 18z frame just east of CHH. That is a really impressive wind signal for the E coast of MA. So 70 mph gusts are possible in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 So 70 mph gusts are possible in Boston? Yes I think so. Sustained hurricane force winds get down to about 1,000 feet or slightly lower at BOS. I have a hard time thinking that most of that won't get mixed to the surface from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 About 18-20 knots on the edge of the water. Seas about 6-7 feet. There's going to be significant dune erosion and a few of the homes up by the course may be in trouble. There's one to the north that's been pulled back and on blocks for a year or two abandoned that may go for a swim on the morning high tide. I think most will do okay from the canal to Manomet tonight...morning tide is probably going to take stairs with it and hopefully that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 GFS looks a little farther south to me and a little faster... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 00z GFS definitely shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 They just narrowed the cone. I don't think a NYC or LI landfall is shown by any model and it hasn't been for a few cycles now. Yeah NHC's last cone that touched even western LI was almost 10 hours ago...2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 VDM reported a pressure of 950mb. But dropsonde reported a 13kt surface wind, so the pressure is likely down to 949mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'd crack up in laughter if this kept going NE and out. Realizing it's seemingly impossible even looking at current WV but this NE movement appears longer than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'd crack up in laughter if this kept going NE and out. Realizing it's seemingly impossible even looking at current WV but this NE movement appears longer than progged. Where did you end up? GFS 0z into SNJ? Safe trip fella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'd crack up in laughter if this kept going NE and out. Realizing it's seemingly impossible even looking at current WV but this NE movement appears longer than progged. The models have been sliding south or holding all day so if that happens it will be an epic bust of all time for every major model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Where did you end up? GFS 0z into SNJ? Safe trip fella I made it in today against odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'd crack up in laughter if this kept going NE and out. Realizing it's seemingly impossible even looking at current WV but this NE movement appears longer than progged. It's already starting the turn slowly, but surely. At 8PM, the heading was 050, at 11PM it's 035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The models have been sliding south or holding all day so if that happens it will be an epic bust of all time for every major model. What type of effects from this in MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Destroyed at school on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The models have been sliding south or holding all day so if that happens it will be an epic bust of all time for every major model. Yes. Even if they weren't trending this sharp turn has been in the cards for many days. Which is kind of why I perversely hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What type of effects from this in MD? Just some moderate rain and a few gusts so far. The place out in Oakland is under a blizzard watch. LOL I can't leave the flatland house, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Any minor shifts in the models now are basically irrelevant to the larger scale of impacts for SNE. The only thing that would cause a drastic change is if the models all of the sudden took the storm well out to the east with a wider turn or if they hooked it very early into the Delmarva peninsula. Both scenarios are quite unlikely at this point. 925mb and 950mb in that order....you can even see how the GFS lifts the LLJ north all the way up into southern Maine still with 950mb winds over 70 knots: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just some moderate rain and a few gusts so far. The place out in Oakland is under a blizzard watch. LOL I can't leave the flatland house, unfortunately. That's nuts. Did you guys (western areas) get anything from the Halloween storm last year in terms of snow? From one of the offices...this is insane. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=blizzard warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What does "33" mean - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy looks healthy tonight. Someone is getting alot more than forecasted wind wise. Maybe 90-100 gusts in NJ and on the backside in MD/DC/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What does "33" mean - Inches of rain in the clouds, I think...coil be wrong tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What does "33" mean - Means time to drink a Rolling Rock...where were you in the 90s? Watching WHDH from scituate same experience here...tide is way up but did not get up beyond the edge of the walls/dunes. We'll see in 12 hours. We have lost about a 1-2' of sand based on the stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 00z GFS definitely shifted south Yeah no doubt. I was just watching WCVB's later report and Harvey Leonard was talking about the latest indications are more S for the wind, but still stressed 60-70 gusts possible in Mass. Seems there's a buy in there? I'm just hoping last late October's little pruning effort will save the Rt 2 corridor because I really, really just don't want another 6 days of that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It hasn't quite reached the Gulf Stream yet either I don't think. Interesting how it is going to magically become extratropical in the last few hours before landfall ...according to NHC. Sandy looks healthy tonight. Someone is getting alot more than forecasted wind wise. Maybe 90-100 gusts in NJ and on the backside in MD/DC/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Means time to drink a Rolling Rock...where were you in the 90s? Watching WHDH from scituate same experience here...tide is way up but did not get up beyond the edge of the walls/dunes. We'll see in 12 hours. We have lost about a 1-2' of sand based on the stakes. Nah, I think it's glitch in the weather matrix and some code slipped through - ha. 1990's ? Finishing college and wondering - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I just toyed around briefly with the momentum transfer tool in BUFKIT and at EWR it only maxes out at 45kts to the surface despite having 100kt winds at ~1600 m. Once the winds shift to the southeast tomorrow night there is 70kt winds at 900 hPa yet the momentum transfer is only printing out 27 kts. Is that tool not designed to handle situations like this? (I don't exactly know how it is calculated). It even shows the mixing layer tapping well into those 70+kt jets, so I'm not really sure why it's showing what it is.... seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 00z GFS is alarming for my area. I'm riding this out near Trenton. The combination of sting jet prospects of upper level evaporation and steepening lower lapse rates will also make the right quadrant particularly interesting post-landfall despite the enlarging / non-tropical-like wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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