SnowMan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Courtesy of SRAIN Thats pretty serious right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thats pretty serious right? Just means it's a healthy Cat 1 'cane right now. Nothing serious per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thats pretty serious right? I'm pretty sure it was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My numbers were height above NGVD. Not astro tide. So I suppose I was referring to storm tide. If that is the case and they are truly expecting a 10 foot surge, and not storm tide...then that would destroy all the records. Gotcha. Yeah... height above the datum is the storm tide. I have all the benchmarks printed out here for CT and W LIS. But yeah... the surge values being predicted are just off the rails. I mean some of the guidance has Bridgeport and Stamford exceeding 1938 and 1992 by 3 or 4 feet! In New London the NWS forecast is 10ft MLLW tide which is above Carol (9.6) and just shy of 1938 (10.6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thats pretty serious right? pretty far out from the center... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Its probably closer to a 70% reduction thus 70kts... that's what I figured but someone reported that NOAA said 50%. SRain said somewhere though that it was morel ike 70% which makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy's definitely a bit east of the model mean right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We left safe here with friends. Hardest thing to do evacuating your home. Natural instinct is to stay and do what you can truth is nothing I could have done to fight a surge that I have not already done. Any good news on surge or status quo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy's definitely a bit east of the model mean right now Just something to monitor. Could just be a typical wobble that TCs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gotcha. Yeah... height above the datum is the storm tide. I have all the benchmarks printed out here for CT and W LIS. But yeah... the surge values being predicted are just off the rails. I mean some of the guidance has Bridgeport and Stamford exceeding 1938 and 1992 by 3 or 4 feet! In New London the NWS forecast is 10ft MLLW tide which is above Carol (9.6) and just shy of 1938 (10.6). BDR 10/30 01Z, surge 8.20, tide 3.47, water level 12.24, Surge models have an issue with compiling, ie they drain water rather than an additive effect. Tides tonight were 1-2 feet above levels predicted 2 days ago. Some of that is from compiled water. Have to watch that low tide tonight to see how much drains. Lots of first hand reports tonight of very high low tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We left safe here with friends. Hardest thing to do evacuating your home. Natural instinct is to stay and do what you can truth is nothing I could have done to fight a surge that I have not already done. Any good news on surge or status quo? Probably a wise decision Joe. My heart goes out to you and your family as well as all the other residents along the coast. I do not wish this upon anyone and hope you all come out unscathed and your homes undamaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just something to monitor. Could just be a typical wobble that TCs do. NAM doesn't flinch same hit just a few/an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 http://www.weca.org/SET/report/node6.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We left safe here with friends. Hardest thing to do evacuating your home. Natural instinct is to stay and do what you can truth is nothing I could have done to fight a surge that I have not already done. Any good news on surge or status quo? Good move, hope I was some help. I could hear the anxiety in your voice. I felt helpless. Hopefully you suffer no damage, you can fix that Giuseppe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We left safe here with friends. Hardest thing to do evacuating your home. Natural instinct is to stay and do what you can truth is nothing I could have done to fight a surge that I have not already done. Any good news on surge or status quo? Best of luck my man!Hopefully all will be intact when you return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 5.8 rating is very impressive - wish there was a scale like this for the public (vs the scale most are used to using) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have an urge to hike Blue Hill tomorrow afternoon during the height of the storm just to experience the conditions up there... Is this a bad idea (meaning unsafe) or will it just be windy as hell and miserable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks pretty good on satellite...also looks like it's beginning to make the turn. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-avn-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thanks guys and thank you Steve you reassured me of what I knew and that's what I needed I truly appreciate it. Now it's time for a scotch, by the way it's starting to blow pretty good down here. Selfishly I wanted to ride it out at the shore it would have been an epic show! Thanks for your help Steve!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We left safe here with friends. Hardest thing to do evacuating your home. Natural instinct is to stay and do what you can truth is nothing I could have done to fight a surge that I have not already done. Any good news on surge or status quo? I agree. I very much hope that things will change and the surge will not be anywhere close to what is currently expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have an urge to hike Blue Hill tomorrow afternoon during the height of the storm just to experience the conditions up there... Is this a bad idea (meaning unsafe) or will it just be windy as hell and miserable? Probably not wise to do but if you could climb up on the lee side of it from the winds you may be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM has 41 knots sustained at BOS tomorrow afternoon around 21z and winds of 70 knots around 950mb. The LLJ at 950mb maxes out near 80 knots in the 18z frame just east of CHH. That is a really impressive wind signal for the E coast of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Storm surge already 3 feet at the Stamford Hurricane Barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sometimes TCs wobble and what looks like an ENE track can abruptly turn N and correct itself. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 3ft surge in Stamford is very concerning to me. The Monday AM high tide around 11:30 a.m. is only for3ecast to have a surge near 4.4ft. I think we may do better than that and actually exceed Irene levels during the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 3ft surge in Stamford is very concerning to me. The Monday AM high tide around 11:30 a.m. is only for3ecast to have a surge near 4.4ft. I think we may do better than that and actually exceed Irene levels during the morning! I read a report that a lot of shoreline towns are already seeing moderate coastal flooding...might have been on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy looks better than any of our storms so far in the Atlantic....except before Sandy hitting Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Probably not wise to do but if you could climb up on the lee side of it from the winds you may be ok. Yeah, I was thinking about hiking up the lift line of the ski area, and then just cutting up through the woods to the summit above the top terminal of the chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sometimes TCs wobble and what looks like an ENE track can abruptly turn N and correct itself. Just something to watch. I know you had mentioned the state of the center of circulation being more oval like (the hurricane hunters have also reported an elliptical eye), and that can lead to more wobbling just due to the asymmetric nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy looks better than any of our storms so far in the Atlantic....except before Sandy hitting Cuba. Looks a little wintery to me, but yeah, darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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