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Sandy VI disco


CoastalWx

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In Floyd I remember the winds at the beach in Westport being sustained 35mph with gust to 55mph. I went back to my house 2 miles inland and there was hardly anything. Maybe it's because of drag on land or maybe the sound has a funneling effect when winds are out of the ENE. I heard A similar descrition from Irene.

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I don't think the terrain is steep enough to have a big effect. On the west slope of the Berkshires you can get some downslope enhancement, but its not like what is seen up in the Greens.

Sweet, cool. I've always wondered about that and if the CT Valley would see stronger winds along with the downsloping of precipitation.

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What part of Fairfield are you located?

Im less than a mile from LI sound and have a large bay in my backyard that fills up quite a bit at high tide. Just curious if I should be concerned about flooding. Im pretty much between jennings and st marys, but on the the northern side of US 1.

South of US 1 across from Dairy Queen at the end of the street I have tidal marsh between myself and the sound as well. In the mandatory evac zone heading out bright and early, good luck@!

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I'm little surprised some of the school districts up here have already called off tomorrow. Umass, Smith, Amherst College all closed. I guess they are erroring on the side of caution.

Getting a little breezier here up in the tree tops. From the E, maybe 10mph or so.

Yeah, all 3 districts in my household called it off.

Wise choice, plus my building is a shelter...

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glad your getting out goodluck!!! this storm may still have some surprises we never seen anything like it

South of US 1 across from Dairy Queen at the end of the street I have tidal marsh between myself and the sound as well. In the mandatory evac zone heading out bright and early, good luck@!

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Good luck hope you weather the storm! Just saw possible surge @ Bridgeport now 13-14 feet?

Thanks, I would not doubt it, in reality there was no low tide today........I really fear it maybe worse down in lower westchester where the sound narrows if thats even possible.

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No, winds will be strong everywhere, I said that I'm not sure some interior spots will reach KFS predictions. However, higher elevations could gust to 70 like Kevin's area if the GFS verified. And then areas like the east slopes of the ORH may very well too during the erly LLJ, because there isn't much land friction when you are another 500' or so higher than areas to the east..like where Will is.

There may be two things going on for strong winds.

#1) Tomorrow aftn easterly LLJ will be rocking. While soundings do not support deep mixing, turbulent eddies alone and any showers will be able to transport 75mph winds only several hundred feet up. This will impact coastal areas and any areas that are higher up...like ORH...and especially the eastern ORH hills since they are the first land object encountered by the jet. The reason being several hundred feet higher than areas east of them like Shrewsbury. All interior areas will probably gust 50-60 at least during this. Convective showers may also cause localized higher gusts, but we cannot pinpoint those areas from mesoscale stuff like that.

#2) the south coast of SNE as Sandy moves into NJ. It's here where another enhanced LLJ from the SE moves in and nails CT. This imo is probably Kevin's best shot. The reason is due to warm surface area that will be ripped in on E-SE winds, yet temps aloft will actually cool thanks to CAA aloft from the SE! This will cause low level lapse rates to steepen and therefore higher momentum transfer possible.

#2 I think is more GFS and perhaps Euro dependent since it has a core of strong winds. Tropical models would bring this a little more south.

Also, there is the chance that Sandy may have an oval shape to the center of low pressure. What I mean is that as it moves NW then WNW, the center of low pressure will perhaps stretch out to the ENE giving it less of a circular shape and more oval in nature. I think what this would do, it perhaps cause a wicked LLJ moving into SNE and really allowing winds to blow across all areas. The NAM sort of does this and the fast whiplash west of that trough of low pressure would enhance winds I think.

Just some things to watch.

Thanks Scott!

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Thanks, I would not doubt it, in reality there was no low tide today........I really fear it maybe worse down in lower westchester where the sound narrows if thats even possible.

It probably will be. I lived in Pelham Bay and worked on and frequented City Island a lot when I was in HS and college. In 1972 Agnes put the north end of City Island under 4-4.5 feet. The 1992 Dec coastal was just as bad..even worse west by Whitestone Bridge LGA and all the bays from the Bronx up to Westchester counties.

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South of US 1 across from Dairy Queen at the end of the street I have tidal marsh between myself and the sound as well. In the mandatory evac zone heading out bright and early, good luck@!

Just drove through that area a few minutes ago. Seems like there are still a decent amount of people around, and nobody has really boarded up or anything. Tried to make it down to Fairfield Beach Road too, but cops were blocking it off.

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Just out of curiosity - with the different categories there are in the saffir simpson scale, what are the different storm surge probablities associated per category?

There is no cut and dry category to surge level comparison. I was just commenting with a friend how I don't like the inundation maps the various states have out there because they associate areas flooded to category rather than water level. After all water level is the only thing that matters. We can all but guarantee that Sandy will be for all intents and purposes a category 1 at landfall but carry a surge much greater than that due to the nearly perfect angle of approach.

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