Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So maybe Ryan can agree, but I think the interior of CT, especially SW CT are most at risk for whiplash LLJ that occurs as CAA steepens lapse rates. This occurs after 7-8pm depending on timing. gusts to 90? Seems possible, that area with surge and wind is jackpot. Talked with LL, tough decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gusts to 90? Seems possible, that area with surge and wind is jackpot. Talked with LL, tough decision. 90 is high I think. I think 80 is max level... many areas 70ish on the coast... 60ish inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18z tropical models ticked south. Many in DE Bay. That would be some left hook....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
843wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Via Twitter and TWC, already 3 inches of snow on the ground at High Knob, Wise County Virginia. Could see some unreal snow totals!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I highly doubt you or anyone else except essential EE's will be going to work tomorrow. the state will essentially be shutdown with winds gusting 70-80mph As long as NYSE is open I will be working. Though there is no floor trading tomorrow, electronic only from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I agree. I think we see 2 wind maxes... one prior to landfall. And then a 2 hour period of ripping on southerly LLJ post landfall. If landfall is 00z... that's a full 4 hours prior to high tide. Unfortunately winds will still be onshore post landfall. how much prior to LF is max wind in GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gusts to 90? Seems possible, that area with surge and wind is jackpot. Talked with LL, tough decision. Crazy man, I wonder if my elevation will help with a jackpot. Very worried about the large pines within striking range of my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'll take it...but what exactly does that mean? This is mainly for LLs area. As the low curls NW, there will actually be colder air moving in from the SE! This will wipe out inversion and steepen low level lapse rates there allowing for better mixing. I think people away from LI sound are thinking this will be worse than actuality. FB and everything make it sound like the finger of God is coming. In reality, it's LI sound folksm(like coastal areas not just shore dwellers) that need to worry..and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is mainly for LLs area. As the low curls NW, there will actually be colder air moving in from the SE! This will wipe out inversion and steepen low level lapse rates there allowing for better mixing. I think people away from LI sound are thinking this will be worse than actuality. FB and everything make it sound like the finger of God is coming. In reality, it's LI sound folks that need to worry..and NYC. I don't think it's possible for anyone to predict with accuracy how strong ther winds will be with this..since we've never seen anything like this in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't think it's possible for anyone to predict with accuracy how strong ther winds will be with this..since we've never seen anything like this in history I think it is given model data. I mean, wind gusts in the 60s are bad, but I would not use words like destructive for interior. Destructive is like tree damage from snowtober, or houses wiped away. If this somehow went NE than that's different, but I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is mainly for LLs area. As the low curls NW, there will actually be colder air moving in from the SE! This will wipe out inversion and steepen low level lapse rates there allowing for better mixing. I think people away from LI sound are thinking this will be worse than actuality. FB and everything make it sound like the finger of God is coming. In reality, it's LI sound folksm(like coastal areas not just shore dwellers) that need to worry..and NYC. Trees scare me. 70 is a lot of MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Trees scare me. 70 is a lot of MPH I think the danger is much higher down by coastal CT if the GFS happens. Think back to march 2010 in JFK and Feb 2010 in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Trees scare me. 70 is a lot of MPH Anyone care to throw up the max gust during Irene and Gloria for the major ct stations? My davis only gusted to mid 30's for irene, though I'm sure I exceeded that based on reports around me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Via Twitter and TWC, already 3 inches of snow on the ground at High Knob, Wise County Virginia. Could see some unreal snow totals!! Sugar Mtn N.C should do well with snowfall totals from this storm. It's already 29.6F at the summit. The webcam should be interesting come dawn: http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think it is given model data. I mean, wind gusts in the 60s are bad, but I would not use words like destructive for interior. Destructive is like tree damage from snowtober, or houses wiped away. If this somehow went NE than that's different, but I don't think so. Yeah, while I agree with Blizz that its hard to actually forecast what will happen, but my gut with a landfall in NJ has always been that interior SNE will have seen worse tree damage from last October's snowfall. I mean you could still see it this summer and like 75% of trees were damaged in spots...it was like an ice storm. This will have strong winds but I don't think we'll see entire neighborhoods of trees completely on the ground like last October. Look back at some of the pics from that storm and the damage is catastrophic... it'll be hard to uproot and/or snap that many trees unless we get some micro-burst-like winds of 80-90mph. But again, all it takes is one large uprooted tree in the right spot and an entire town loses power. I just don't think we'll see photos like after the October snowstorm with streets just littered with large tree limbs and yards completely buried in downed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will be happily taking my drive to Nyack NY tomorrow at about 7:00am. Lucky me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Trees scare me. 70 is a lot of MPH Heck, sustained 50s and 60s can be nasty if trees are leafed. Gloria was a decaying storm as it went over my house in Foxboro. Most damage I saw until 2008 Thankfully, leaves are almost all down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 any chance at any sun tomorrow to mix things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah, while I agree with Blizz that its hard to actually forecast what will happen, but my gut with a landfall in NJ has always been that interior SNE will have seen worse tree damage from last October's snowfall. I mean you could still see it this summer and like 75% of trees were damaged in spots...it was like an ice storm. This will have strong winds but I don't think we'll see entire neighborhoods of trees completely on the ground like last October. Look back at some of the pics from that storm and the damage is catastrophic... it'll be hard to uproot and/or snap that many trees unless we get some micro-burst-like winds of 80-90mph. But again, all it takes is one large uprooted tree in the right spot and an entire town loses power. I just don't think we'll see photos like after the October snowstorm with streets just littered with large tree limbs and yards completely buried in downed trees. There may be some microburst like gusts that do localized damage...I've been thinking of that. I guess people think 80+ is a lock for many areas, 60-70 will take power out and knock trees down....but a track near NYC imo would be more dire for a larger part of CT. Shore residents could care less if LI sound rises 8-10'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Heck, sustained 50s and 60s can be nasty if trees are leafed. Gloria was a decaying storm as it went over my house in Foxboro. Most damage I saw until 2008 Thankfully, leaves are almost all down here Yeah sustained 50-60mph is a whole other animal than even gusts to 70mph. If you were to get like 6 hours of 50+ sustained, the damage would be amazing. That slowly weakens and wears down trees and structural things (like peeling shingles off) where as gusts up that high is a short-term bend/stretch that more trees can accept. Sustained wind doesn't allow for that rebound effect, it just continues to pummel. Plus I've seen enough sustained 50mph+ winds high up on the mountain to know that sustained 50-60mph (like hours) would not be something you want in your neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 While I would not forecast it right now we still can't rule out potential for gusts of 80-90 mph across CT. If this storm does make landfall further north of what the models show those sustained winds of 60-70 knots will be right into at least the southern half of CT with at least 50-60 knots further north into CT and maybe even portions of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will be happily taking my drive to Nyack NY tomorrow at about 7:00am. Lucky me. Good luck with that. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Scooter Ryan Will anybody, best estimates of wind around 7am here in sw ct. Trying to stretch this evac out until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Scooter Ryan Will anybody, best estimates of wind around 7am here in sw ct. Trying to stretch this evac out until tomorrow morning. Gusting over 50 I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gusting over 50 I bet. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 There may be some microburst like gusts that do localized damage...I've been thinking of that. I guess people think 80+ is a lock for many areas, 60-70 will take power out and knock trees down....but a track near NYC imo would be more dire for a larger part of CT. Shore residents could care less if LI sound rises 8-10'. Yeah that's a huge concern in any squally weather. You could have one neighborhood mix down 80-85 mph for a few seconds while two streets over its 50mph. If any area can tap into the H925 level they'll get a good roar from the sky. I still think the CT Valley may see higher winds than folks are thinking... I'm not sure how the downsloping works down there climo wise, but if its like up here, when you downslope you get really, really windy, as the downward motion of the air is bringing down some strong winds aloft. I wonder if the upslope areas that see a more steady rain are actually a little more stable in the immediate PBL, as that rising air keeps the jet up a bit. I'm just speaking in terms of how I see things happen around here but the terrain is smaller down there in CT/MA... when you get into an upslope precipitation band its usually pretty calm (I mean calmer than surrounding areas, relative to areas outside the upslope precipitation where the air is mixing more) and then as soon as you go out of that precipitation area it gets really windy. Not sure if that's applicable in this case, but its obvious that orographics will have a lot to do with QPF and likely winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WIll that mega LLJ do the same whiplash to areas like Dutchess County or Putnam County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will say this. Kevin will have a stinger. With Kevin's exposure...if the GFS verified, there would be a very strong surge of SE winds like we've mentioned. It's a this point, Kevin could pull a 70. I'll say that potential is there at 1k if the GFS happened. That's why srn CT scares me with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not a good thing when your low tide is nearly as high as your next scheduled high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Southern MA and Narragansett bay may be in trouble too tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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