navvet8992 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gfs just bumped north with landfall Looks the same as 12z to me. Models have it locked in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Blizzard warnings up for parts of VA, WV, and MD. Man, oh man. This is Tippy's tropical storm mixed with cold air.... check out this forecast for Snowshoe, West Virginia! Monday: Snow with areas of blowing snow. High near 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Windy, with a northwest wind 34 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 28. Breezy, with a west wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday: Snow. High near 31. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I rarely hype..but when I do..I'm the most dangerous man in the world I got to admit Kev you do go off the deep end on occasion, but I bit into your hype on Monday, bought my generator that day and had it wired Thursday and I am glad that I did. Do we know what the foliage maps look like for CT? Most trees have shed there leaves in my area, so I think that will help minimize some outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I got to admit Kev you do go off the deep end on occasion, but I bit into your hype on Monday, bought my generator that day and had it wired Thursday and I am glad that I did. Do we know what the foliage maps look like for CT? Most trees have shed there leaves in my area, so I think that will help minimize some outages. Oaks in this area still leaved, and some maples still have some leaves left... but most leaves have dropped. I'm 10 miles from the coast though.. far SW CT tends to drop later I think. (lyme CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't see any model showing winds that high. The highest gusts I really can envision for coastal CT is 70 knots based on model soundings. I may be mistaken, but I believe Roger usually uses the moon for his forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Already gusting to 25 mph at 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't see any model showing winds that high. The highest gusts I really can envision for coastal CT is 70 knots based on model soundings. I thought models couldn't handle what the winds would be with this since it's such a unique storm? I've heard that thrown out a few times, I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cloud structure from above spectacular. On the ground at BOS now. Glad to hear you made it back safe Jerry...even though we haven't met lol And glad you are here to experience this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Coastal flooding ongoing as the tide comes in, in SRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dropsonde just found 45 kt surface winds 400 nmi from the center due N of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 All we can do is pray for Litchfield county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Water/bread/essentials wiped off shelves here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Water/bread/essentials wiped off shelves here thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Water/bread/essentials wiped off shelves here Stores up here were no big deal... as it should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 For some sense of scale, Bermuda to Hatteras is ~650mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is academic, but the 18z GFS was north a little. It's particularly notable when you look at surface winds on the high res maps. Smokes all of LI with 50-70 knot winds now around 27 hours out. That's a bump north with those winds. "center" of circulation is also north perhaps 50+ miles. Again, one model, just amusing myself by looking....At 30 hours it's plopped right over Asbury Park on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Stores up here were no big deal... as it should be... The MA does not know any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Chris M screw dropsound LI buoy gusts to 47knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The MA does not know any better. Careful,,they'll start saying bad things about you in their banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What did Malloy say about shutting highways tomorrow? I missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 All we can do is pray for Litchfield county. Please pray my picnic tables don't get flipped over at 4K feet, too... thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Already gusting to 25 mph at 1k I was just up at Topsmeade Forest in Litchfield..they're at 1200' and they were probably gusting to 35. Very open spot though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 So maybe Ryan can agree, but I think the interior of CT, especially SW CT are most at risk for whiplash LLJ that occurs as CAA steepens lapse rates. This occurs after 7-8pm depending on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So maybe Ryan can agree, but I think the interior of CT, especially SW CT are most at risk for whiplash LLJ that occurs as CAA steepens lapse rates. This occurs after 7-8pm depending on timing. I'll take it...but what exactly does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Chris M screw dropsound LI buoy gusts to 47knots The VAD's will be fun to watch through the storm... OKX radar showing a solid 40-45kts sustained just off the deck now in the 2000-5000ft range. That would explain the gusts occasionally reaching the surface around 45kts on the open water. BOX at 25-35kts at 1K-5Kft over the radar site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What did Malloy say about shutting highways tomorrow? I missed it I didn't hear anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18z tropical models ticked south. Many in DE Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What did Malloy say about shutting highways tomorrow? I missed it Why would they shut the highways down? Won't be hazardous to drive just because of wind and a little rain, and lots of people do have to go to work tomorrow. Commute will probably be a breeze (pardon the pun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Why would they shut the highways down? Won't be hazardous to drive just because of wind and a little rain, and lots of people do have to go to work tomorrow. Commute will probably be a breeze (pardon the pun). I highly doubt you or anyone else except essential EE's will be going to work tomorrow. the state will essentially be shutdown with winds gusting 70-80mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So maybe Ryan can agree, but I think the interior of CT, especially SW CT are most at risk for whiplash LLJ that occurs as CAA steepens lapse rates. This occurs after 7-8pm depending on timing. I agree. I think we see 2 wind maxes... one prior to landfall. And then a 2 hour period of ripping on southerly LLJ post landfall. If landfall is 00z... that's a full 4 hours prior to high tide. Unfortunately winds will still be onshore post landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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