CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well as every wobble is tracked and wishcasted, looks like quite an impact for SNE and even coastal NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Definitely a little battle with models now, tropical models would be a little less of an impact here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Definitely a little battle with models now, tropical models would be a little less of an impact here I think. Yes, agreed. I'm interested to see what the 12z globals do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Haven't we been told not to place any emphasis on tropical models for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well as every wobble is tracked and wishcasted, looks like quite an impact for SNE and even coastal NNE. Model shifts of 30 - 40 miles aren't going to matter too much if this storm keeps deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM near Sandy Hook (FWIW) but it's early... around 00z-01z... which would alleviate coastal flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Haven't we been told not to place any emphasis on tropical models for this? Well it does look more tropical than yesterday....I don't see a reason to dismiss them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well as every wobble is tracked and wishcasted, looks like quite an impact for SNE and even coastal NNE. Indeed it is. Hopefully the southward tick of the trop modelswill lessen the blow (no pun intended) for us out here in the netherlands. Good luck to all--especially Joe and our other friends in the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tropical models seem like the only ones initializing the mslp correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM has some convection with the warm front getting whipped in from the SE. LLJ is maximized here too, this should be watched because any sea gull fart will bring hurricane force gusts down if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM near Sandy Hook (FWIW) but it's early... around 00z-01z... which would alleviate coastal flooding concerns. 0z-1z is high tide for much of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just getting up to speed here. Walked around my property and pretty concerned about this neighbors massive tree in my back yard. any 350-020 wind dir with high gust i could get squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Anyone able to get the NOAA buoy data page to come up? Won't load for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z-1z is high tide for much of this area. Yeah... sorry... I was talking specifically about LIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Anyone able to get the NOAA buoy data page to come up? Won't load for me. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just getting up to speed here. Walked around my property and pretty concerned about this neighbors massive tree in my back yard. any 350-020 wind dir with high gust i could get squashed Fully leafed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Real problem looks to be the waves. 4-5' surge RI coast and S. Narragansett Bay not terrible, but atop 15-20' seas into Pt. Judith... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy really looks great this morning. It should continue to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My trees are just about bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well it does look more tropical than yesterday....I don't see a reason to dismiss them. What do they show? Haven't looked much in the last 15 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I want to relate a personal experience and something learned from Irene, hopefully it will stay posted as its relevant. During PS1 the tide never really went out, low tide never came for two cycles. Keep that in mind when thinking about the surge in sounds. A quick hitting cane like Bob or Gloria and the timing of the tide is very important to final surge numbers, a long sustained fetch storm with multiple cycles of tide is a different animal. The lesson learned from Irene was the predicted current speeds of the Oceans waters was very high so the surge was aided, along with being propelled by wind and wave. Current speeds during this full moon are on par. Just something to keep in the back of your mind. Not to mention wave action in this monster is off the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I know it's the NAM but that is just a devastating track and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Need to watch timing closely, on the NYC forum and there was a thread I had bumped about a presentation on the '38 hurricane/warm seclusion lows. Mentioned the models in the analysis were too slow in having the storm make landfall. Also worth noting that many solutions they ran from a set initializaton location did result in that storm hooking left into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SRSO link http://rammb.cira.co...s_to_display=50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What's funny is this will "seem" more tropical than most tropical storms/hurricanes that impact us. It may very well have an eye, convection near the center, and an abrupt and dramatic wind shift after the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gov Malloy on TWC said he alerting local coastal authorities to expect a cat 4 storm surge into the western sound from the Havens west into Greenwich. (worst case scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Danger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just came back from the Stop and Shop in Port Chester, and the Byram River is already flooding. We're right at high tide now, and that river normally runs high, but I was surprised to see that much water already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I know it's the NAM but that is just a devastating track and strength. It even gives me >30kt sustained at 10m as the convection moves through. It looks very Nov 50esque wrt that up here.What are you going with for winds in HFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Danger no time to edit...you get the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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