ravensrule Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bsha'h Tova For his sake i hope tomorrow is not the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm off tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just got a text accompanied by a buzzing alert sound for mandatory evacs in zone A on my phone. I've gotten alerts for floods etc before but it's never freaked out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm a little concerned with Sandy's track, currently move to the right side of the forecast envelope. If she stays over warmer water and intensifies tropically before making the dramatic left hook, we may be in for some serious doo doo. Especially if she baroclinically deepens further before land fall. we are in serious doo doo already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Still haven't canceled schools out here on the island. That's crazy especially when gusts could be in the 80-90mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My wife just went out to get more running/walking in before we get cooped inside for 2 + days. Went into the Park, was around on the East Side and a Ranger stopped her and kicked her out at 4:45. Now she can't get back without going around! From nonchalance to police state in a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When was the last time a system was impacting both North Carolina and Bermuda at the same time with tropical storm force winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 After NHC stressing about not needing hurricane warnings as Sandy would be post-tropical by landfall, suddenly their 5 PM forecast does show Sandy as a tropical cyclone as she makes landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 TWC has 4-8 inches for NYC. I think that is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM shows gusts to 75-80MPH in NYC. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_18z_10mwgust_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Still haven't canceled schools out here on the island. That's crazy especially when gusts could be in the 80-90mph range. Our district just called canceling Mon and Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 000 NOUS41 KPHI 281841 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-291200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks man. You're missing a good one Argh don't rub it in. I was there for Irene but I'd trade in Irene for Sandy any day. This thread better deliver cause I'm living vicariously through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 After NHC stressing about not needing hurricane warnings as Sandy would be post-tropical by landfall, suddenly their 5 PM forecast does show Sandy as a tropical cyclone as she makes landfall... They just changed it back to post-tropical... This is so annoying....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 They just changed it back to post-tropical... This is so annoying....! Barely spent 5 minutes on their website as a tropical cyclone before quickly changing it back to post-tropical - wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 000 NOUS41 KPHI 281841 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-291200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ wow never read anything like that from Mt. Holly before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Barely spent 5 minutes on their website as a tropical cyclone before quickly changing it back to post-tropical - wow... remember...they don't feel like issuing hurricane warnings for us....even if max sustained end up around 90 MPH.....still no hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM brings Sandy into Seaside Heights area tomorrow around 6pm then to a position near PHL by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 50kt sustained southeast winds into the South Shore after the storms center is inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT AND POSSIBLY NYC METRO DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS LOW LEVEL CAA BEGINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 85-90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. from Upton the worst could be after landfall with south southeast winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 earthlite what about the rest of the island?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT AND POSSIBLY NYC METRO DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS LOW LEVEL CAA BEGINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 85-90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. from Upton the worst could be after landfall with south southeast winds Was speaking about this earlier with Snowgoose and in the graphic above. There will definitely be a burst of winds everywhere as the center comes ashore...probably gusting hurricane force widespread..and then southeast winds will be unreal as the center goes inland over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Quick question if someone could poss answer we have had a number of storms that were supposed to big wind producers but were not able to mix the forecasted winds to the surface so I was wondering what is going to make this storm able to mix those wimds to the surface ESP North of the path where not a ton of rain is expected??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 TWC has 4-8 inches for NYC. I think that is realistic. Higher accumulations north and west and if it doesn't change over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Three photos of the Long Island Sound (Rye, New York) ahead of Sandy's arrival: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Quick question if someone could poss answer we have had a number of storms that were supposed to big wind producers but were not able to mix the forecasted winds to the surface so I was wondering what is going to make this storm able to mix those wimds to the surface ESP North of the path where not a ton of rain is expected??? You make a good point. i always see 925hpa wind maps being thrown around in noreaster events but they never really seem to affect surface winds. You may have 40kt 2m winds and 90kt 925hpa winds, but that doesn't mean youll see 90kt gusts on the surface. There is plenty of friction such a parcel of downward-traveling wind has to encounter so maybe you can assume half the velocity difference which would mean 65kt winds but it just seem so fuzzy and speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 50kt sustained southeast winds into the South Shore after the storms center is inland. The 18z NAM has 1-2 punch 50kt+ sustained winds hitting south shore. First around noon than around 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 New gfs expands the precip shield a bit further north....but with not as many thunderstorms I think a general 3-5" for NNJ/NYC, 5-7" central NJ and 7-10" for southern nj and south....gfs seems to have initialized the pressure way too high ?? My guess was 950mb at landfall....I think that'll hold. If not closer to 945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting that the models have sped up timing a bit. NAM now has some of the strongest winds (prior to landfall) beginning at 2pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cops are going around with loudspeakers telling people to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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