Wannabehippie Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just got a call from con ed. They might shut off the power for my area. Are you near the water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This storm's biggest effects will be the surge and the torrential rains to our southwest. Winds will be third in line with respects to damage. Not that winds won't be powerful, but if I had to choose one of the three danger factors right now I'd take the winds (especially if I'm not right on the water.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Are you near the water? Yes. Sheepshead bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would presume almost all areas gust higher than irene. It was pretty meh in terms of wind away from immediate coast. That has a good chance of happening I agree. By me though the winds did reach a decent maximum. I even had a small tornado a couple miles away in one of the most severe embedded cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The potential for storm surge in Raritan Bay is scary...they mention 12 to 15 feet...has that ever happened? Yeah that really struck me too...especially considering what will happen if/when that surge is forced up the river. Concerned how New Brunswick and other places along the Raritan will fare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm thinking 80-90 mph gusts on the coast are a decent possibility. Inland where friction will play a role would be less than that. The waters are warmer than normal, and we can certainly get big wind events during the winter-Dec 1992 I believe gusted well over 70 mph in places, and then of course there was the March 2010 storm. I think sustained winds will be hard to break 60-65 mph anywhere. The much bigger story of course will be the surge flooding, and anywhere where winds like that are possible, the water will trump that by 1000. The water already got more than halfway up the beach at this AM's high tide here. LGA could see something crazy if they get that direction that funnels...as of now the models show them generally being too north of east for that with a brief period as we back to the S-SE where it may happen but they'd be my pick for strongest gust of the 3 major airports right now because of that effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. I remember before Irene you doubted the Island would get wind gusts over 50..well it did..half of the Island lost power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. Just glancing at the soundings for throughout the area, whatever inversion there is becomes very weak as the center of the storm nears landfall and is just south of the area. At this point the low level wind fields improve dramatically as well. So I have a feeling that will be the timing of the real issues...from Monday Night onward as the storm is just east of south of the area. This could be where we see the 70-80mph gusts in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 As Cantore pointed out, most of the trees in NYC proper are still fully leafed out (we don't even have much color yet). That would just make any wind damage worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 a coherent, vertical tower of PV like #Sandy is tropical origin -- & almost fully tropical until near landfall. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/262607819088461824/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If the recent models are correct, I could see gusts to 100 for the city. Absolutely agree. I don't know what people are looking at. December 1992 (yes I know it is not the same type of storm as this is) had it's strongest winds at night where I was during the storm so this supposed belief that the strongest winds with this storm, which will by far be stronger than December 1992, can't mix down well enough in the night time hours is all speculation & wishful thinking. Look I hope people saying that the winds won't get too bad are correct as we do not need that type of wind but I just don't agree based on what I am seeing. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow and would eat it with a smile as no one in this region needs hurricane force or close to hurricane force winds for lengthy periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The flooding will be really bad the winds I think if this was 4 weeks earlier would be a catastrophe but the I think the potential low level inversion is really going to make it difficult to get anything over 60-70 mph to the surface. I strongly disagree. We have had plenty of winter events that caused 50-60mph winds and that was just a 980 low over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HWRF gust potential shows gusts to 60-70 knots for the city and up to 80 on Long Island. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/nmmwrf.gust_animate_1h.html#picture That seems in line with thinking from most. I think the city sees sustained winds of 50-60MPH with gusts to 80, maybe 85. South shore of LI could get to 100 in gusts, sustained to 70 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Friend just texted me from Seaford, "it's low tide and the water level isn't where it should be" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It's getting really windy with high gusts here in staten island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WIND FORECAST By me, preliminary, a guess. Gusts only (mph) Long Island: 70-85, possibly 90 New York City, Coastal New England from Cape Cod west, New Jersey Coast:65-80, possibly 90 Interior New Jersey, DE, MD, extreme Southern NY, southern CT, RI, and southern MA near Cape Cod: 60-80 Southern NE, S and C NY, E PA, CT, MA: 60-70 WPA, Northern NE except for upper Maine, rest of area west to GL: 40-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NWS now OFFICIALLY forecasting largest water level ever recorded at the Battery (11.7) for tmoorrow night, breaking Hurr Donna 1960 10.1 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Forecasting 12.0' for Newark Bay at Bergen Point. Also just saw this tweet about possible evacuations in Jersey City - finally! Sheesh. Already 2.0 feet at the Battery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NWS now OFFICIALLY forecasting largest water level ever recorded at the Battery (11.7) for tmoorrow night, breaking Hurr Donna 1960 10.1 ft forecasting surge levels that are 15% greater than the record is mind boggling. This seems like a 250-500 year event. The Donna's are historical type storms. To easily pass that storm would say alot about Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This storm will be coming in from the worst direction possible. That's why it will not be weakening at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 forecasting surge levels that are 15% greater than the record is mind boggling. This seems like a 250-500 year event. The Donna's are historical type storms. To easily pass that storm would say alot about Sandy It also says a lot about Bloomberg. It's not like you can safely move tens of thousands of people in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is why this is a nightmare for the south shore of LI. Here's a google maps view of where my roommate's family and some of my other friends' families live: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the whole south shore from queens to suffolk looks like that...a lot of low lying marshland. Surprising my parents house in south merrick near the water was about a 1000ft from seeing water in irene. I would be surprised if water didn't pile up 3-4ft more than what was seen in irene on the south shore. Scary stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the whole south shore from queens to suffolk looks like that...a lot of low lying marshland. Surprising my parents house in south merrick near the water was about a 1000ft from seeing water in irene. I would be surprised if water didn't pile up 3-4ft more than what was seen in irene on the south shore. Scary stuff Yep, when I first visited one of my friends in Seaford who lives along a canal, I was stunned at the density living so close to the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yep, when I first visited one of my friends in Seaford who lives along a canal, I was stunned at the density living so close to the water. I know someone down there in Seaford, he said he's not going to leave and virtually the entire block is staying. I told him he'd better be ready at any time though to bail tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 fwiw, 12z Euro came in at Toms River and then heads west to ABE. If I recall, the 12z GFS came in around Toms River as well. Seems that may be LF point atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I know someone down there in Seaford, he said he's not going to leave and virtually the entire block is staying. I told him he'd better be ready at any time though to bail tomorrow. It would be risky to try and bail between high tides, especially when roads at low tide will likely still be flooded to some degree. It is likely that those who stay for Monday's first high tide will be stuck with that decision for good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Forecasting 12.0' for Newark Bay at Bergen Point. Also just saw this tweet about possible evacuations in Jersey City - finally! Sheesh. Already 2.0 feet at the Battery... Do you know the relationship between rise at the battery compared to Hudson River locations like Jc and hoboken? I'm wondering because its just been announced there will be no mandatory evacuations in Hoboken. Not even in areas that flooded from Irene. I'm shocked. People are not taking this seriously here. My roommate didnt even know about it until this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I keep seeing pressures at LF around 947. Being that it's at 951 now and with the phasing yet to take place is it even a remote possibility that the pressure is underdone? I mean, are we to believe that the strength will basically remain the same with the phase yet to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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