earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 DT posted on facebook that the turn to the NW began earlier than expect so he expects a landfall now in DE or far south NJ. Any truth to this? Every high resolution model has the storm landfalling in South-Central NJ which is maybe a 20 mile change from yesterday. Here's the RAP for example. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RUCNE_12z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 DT posted on facebook that the turn to the NW began earlier than expect so he expects a landfall now in DE or far south NJ. Any truth to this? It's almost due east from DE now, so, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like the RAP has much more precip for northern NJ as well compared to the NAM. Will be interesting to see if we can get some heavy bands of rain later on as the storm approaches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 500mb phase has occurred and the swing to the NW will begin -- as this occurs our area will be placed under some very strong wind fields in one of the most anomalous upper air set ups we have all seen. For those of you screaming bust...talk to me in 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 500mb phase has occurred and the swing to the NW will begin -- as this occurs our area will be placed under some very strong wind fields in one of the most anomalous upper air set ups we have all seen. For those of you screaming bust...talk to me in 5 hours. There are people actually already calling it a bust?? Wow...the surge alone tonight will be devastating given what happened at this mornings high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Center is up on KDIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yikes. Going to be a wild ride. Radar filling in a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 500mb phase has occurred and the swing to the NW will begin -- as this occurs our area will be placed under some very strong wind fields in one of the most anomalous upper air set ups we have all seen. For those of you screaming bust...talk to me in 5 hours. that is damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 86kt surface wind basically at surface on a drop (reading from 962 and surface 963). 99mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 There are people actually already calling it a bust?? Wow...the surge alone tonight will be devastating given what happened at this mornings high tide. We go through this with every storm whether it be winter, severe weather, and apparently once in a lifetime type setups for hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We go through this with every storm whether it be winter, severe weather, and apparently once in a lifetime type setups for hurricanes. when the winds get going to the coast the only busts will be windows and trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon heading out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Schools closed tuesday for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 don't know if anyone posted this but according to this - the hurricane force winds are south -southwest of the center - will this be the case when the center is forecasted to come inland in far south jersey ??? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150352.shtml?radii?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is Bloomberg as "disaster ignorant" as he comes across in the various press confrence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is Bloomberg as "disaster ignorant" as he comes across in the various press confrence? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like the RAP has much more precip for northern NJ as well compared to the NAM. Will be interesting to see if we can get some heavy bands of rain later on as the storm approaches.. Yeah, agreed. Its shows a lot more rain in north jersey then the global models. Not sure what to think of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yes It actually blows my mind when he says that emergency crews will come out to rescue people. Is he aware that FDNY and NYPD begin to take crews off the road once winds hit 55mph????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is on track to produce the extreme wind gusts that I mentioned on this thread whenever that was ... basically it is just too strong a storm to do anything else. You can see how it's rotating its energy around to the forward side and I fully expect this to start ramping up winds across Long Island and NYC, northern NJ to landfall values that will be similar to the hurricane's circulation potential, so in other words, 50-80 mph sustained, 100-120 mph gusts. The rainfall will also beef up to the north of the track as the frontal zone inland ne PA and nw NJ begins to receive low level frontal forcing from 65-70 F dew points rapidly advecting west. I thinik today's max temps in NYC may surprise (not sure what they are predicted to be, too busy to check) but watch temps come up into low 70s in the screaming ESE storm force winds. Could be like 72/71 with a wind chill of 45 from some graph but of course that won't actually be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 don't know if anyone posted this but according to this - the hurricane force winds are south -southwest of the center - will this be the case when the center is forecasted to come inland in far south jersey ??? http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents Probably not. When the center come close to the coast, the winds would be offshore from land, so there would be more friction. I think if the storm is able to organize its self a little differently, maybe the S/SE side would become the strongest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 recon is heading in... next mission is going to be quite exciting, considering she is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I am tracking over the city winds 03040G57MPH through next 3-4 hours, then increasing to 03045G65MPH from 17Z to 01Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gov. Christie is much more well versed in tropical weather when compared to Bloomberg and it's not even close...Bloomberg makes Christie sound like a TS expert analyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Christie: "We were made aware that 25% of people ignored the mandatory evac in Seaside Heights. We saw news crews there with people at 12pm, and the storm was 200 miles away with the conditions horrible already. How are they going to feel in 12 hours when the storm makes landfall 25 miles south of them? They are now in harms way. It was stupid and selfish, and now they're likely going to put emergency crews into harms way as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We all better get used to it. I'm pretty certain it's going to be Christie in the White House for 2016. I personally like his bluntness at times, especially for this situation. Christie: "We were made aware that 25% of people ignored the mandatory evac in Seaside Heights. We saw news crews there with people at 12pm, and the storm was 200 miles away with the conditions horrible already. How are they going to feel in 12 hours when the storm makes landfall 25 miles south of them? They are now in harms way. It was stupid and selfish, and now they're likely going to put emergency crews into harms way as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Probably not. When the center come close to the coast, the winds would be offshore from land, so there would be more friction. I think if the storm is able to organize its self a little differently, maybe the S/SE side would become the strongest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gov. Christie is much more well versed in tropical weather when compared to Bloomberg and it's not even close...Bloomberg makes Christie sound like a TS expert analyst. I agree. I rather have him as mayor, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I agree. I rather have him as mayor, right now. Yeah. My post was not meant to be politics-related...just simple fact that he seems much more well informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I've been noticing this over the last 48 hours. Some mets blindly saying the worst part of the storm will be on the NE quadrant. As we have seen, the NE is on the drier side by the SW is where all the precip is.. I think the further south this thing lands, its better for Ocean County NJ and northward. Also, the winds will hopefully be a little less. I can appreciate an earlier thread discussing the reporting of winds measured aloft by plane rather than actual ground observations. I can believe some gusts nearing hurricane force as the center makes landfall, but not much higher. Unfortunately, Weather Underground is experiencing banding problems, so I can't observe what is actually going on rather than what the media is telling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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