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hurricane sandy thread #3


forkyfork

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Strongest winds in the SE quadrant. The landfall cone now soth of Toms River to Cape May. I think she comes in just at or north of ACY and I dont think 30 - 50 miles more south means much for the n-nj/nyc/li/s-ne areas. Winds are ripping here now.

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Strongest winds in the SE quadrant. The landfall cone now soth of Toms River to Cape May. I think she comes in just at or north of ACY and I dont think 30 - 50 miles more south means much for the n-nj/nyc/li/s-ne areas. Winds are ripping here now.

not gonna mean much as far as wind impact for us though. the winds are still gonna be insane as we head into the afternoon and with this storm still strengthening its possible we make a run at sub 940mb

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not gonna mean much as far as wind impact for us though. the winds are still gonna be insane as we head into the afternoon and with this storm still strengthening its possible we make a run at sub 940mb

Agree... I do think the heaviest rainfall will fall over DC,Balt, DE, SNJ, PHL (south of c-nj)

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Agree... I do think the heaviest rainfall will fall over DC,Balt, DE, SNJ, PHL (south of c-nj)

we were never suppose to get the heaviest rains on LI we'll be taking the cake for the most insanes winds though however. i do believe that during the hieght of this for us we'll be getting some pretty wicked convective bands with maybe even some rotation embedded

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  • Earthcam has some in NY and NJ

Thanks. I'm still having issues even with earthcam, but it may be on my end. At first I thought the sites were just overloaded with people viewing because all of the cams were frozen even though they said "live" and it was like working on dial up because it takes so long for the page to load. It's probably my stupid pc.

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From NWS forecast discussion:

ALL NWP IN PRETTY CLOSE

AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A BAND OF VERY STRONG

925 MB WINDS OF 70-90 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE

AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS.

A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER BELOW THAT...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE

GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE

NORTHEAST OF SANDY...COULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STRONG

WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN...SO AT LEAST

OCCASIONAL GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED IN NE-E FLOW DURING MID TO

LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF

SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE

UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS

EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN

TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM

AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA

CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM

TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH

SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS

90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN

CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND

DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER

INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH

ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT.

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What would actually be crazy is if Sandy deepened a little bit more, but then got TOO strong, miss the phase, and escape east xD

The best thing that can happen for us now is to keep the rain totals to a minimum to prevent that ground from softening up...also the less rain the less chance for crazy gusts to mix down, thats my hope for the next 12 hours, to keep those rain totals here on the N side of the storm down as much as possible.

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Folks, we now have a westward component to the motion:

000

WTNT33 KNHC 291149

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL

HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

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The best thing that can happen for us now is to keep the rain totals to a minimum to prevent that ground from softening up...also the less rain the less chance for crazy gusts to mix down, thats my hope for the next 12 hours, to keep those rain totals here on the N side of the storm down as much as possible.

Winds are getting intense here, with light rain. Later is going to be insane when Sandy gets closer.

Can't wait to see the 8AM update

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Folks, we now have a westward component to the motion:

000

WTNT33 KNHC 291149

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL

HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

Still 946 mb on update.. I thought latest pass found 941 mb?

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"tropical storm conditions possible" back up for most areas in mt holly zone. prob doesnt mean much at this point but i question why the back and forth the past two days or so.

at any rate, i think the guidance has done a superb job so far pinpointing the axis of the heaviest rain as well as Sandy's path. as she rotates to the NW and W, the deform bands along the SW side will drop tons of qpf, prob underdone in some regards.

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"AT THE MOMENT...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL."

Any pros care to comment on the likelihood of the windfield, especially near the center (i.e., near those of us in Central/North Jersey and the NYC Metro area), becoming more symmetrical? Would be interesting to miss both the highest winds and the greatest rains to the north of Sandy's track.

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145800 3738N 07133W 6966 02612 9386 +160 +104 184046 051 033 002 00

145830 3738N 07135W 6966 02607 9382 +156 +119 189036 043 027 002 03

145900 3738N 07137W 6973 02595 9375 +161 +114 191032 035 019 004 00

145930 3738N 07139W 6967 02599 9381 +150 +116 200025 029 020 003 00

150000 3739N 07142W 6970 02595 9377 +153 +113 194018 023 014 003 00

150030 3739N 07144W 6966 02597 9385 +142 +114 177013 015 013 002 03

150100 3739N 07146W 6970 02593 9392 +136 +115 169011 012 016 004 00

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