SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 So in addition to it strengthening now due to the gulf stream, it's expected to keep strengthening until landfall due to the baroclinic processes. So I'd say 930s is definitely possible and the surge could be much higher than forecast, the gusts right now are approaching 40 mph, very windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 At this this juncture its possible zone b areas in NYC will be affected by storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 So in addition to it strengthening now due to the gulf stream, it's expected to keep strengthening until landfall due to the baroclinic processes. So I'd say 930s is definitely possible and the surge could be much higher than forecast, the gusts right now are approaching 40 mph, very windy. thats what im saying, the thing is though she didn't even fully cross the gulf stream yet and still has those really warm waters and little to no shear.....along with baroclinic processes.......I'm going to throw a wrench in and say that a 100MPH cat 2 has a decent chance at happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 thats what im saying, the thing is though she didn't even fully cross the gulf stream yet and still has those really warm waters and little to no shear.....along with baroclinic processes.......I'm going to throw a wrench in and say that a 100MPH cat 2 has a decent chance at happening Good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 DT Landfall around Toms River,NJ 4-6 inches of rain for NYC Gusts to 85 throughout the storm with peak gusts to 95+ in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm not going to go with the forecast wind gusts from the models, they are initializing this storm way too weak. LI, NYC, SNE, NNJ all have a chance to 80-90mph gusts even some up to 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon has found a small area with 91mph surface winds in the storm 0_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy is now down to 941. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-NY-and-National/432646856749569 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pass is now reading the pressure down to 941. God help us if this dips into the high 920's by some unholy freakish occurrence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 they really really should have went with hurricane warnings. they should really pull the trigger, even if it's late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pass is now reading the pressure down to 941. God help us if this dips into the high 920's by some unholy freakish occurrence I predicted this to go down to 941. Wow, this is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If we have a 930mb or even sub 930 storm into ACY, storm surge would be catastrophic in NYC. Thoughts? What about the winds? Do you guys think they could be stronger than originally forecast for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 who is truly scared at this point? I AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Noticed that most of the further west coastal stations in NYC metro went to N winds for the last couple of hours. That should swing back east as Sandy makes her turn, but maybe that let some water escape overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 who is truly scared at this point? I AM! I am. I have no clue what to expect later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What would actually be crazy is if Sandy deepened a little bit more, but then got TOO strong, miss the phase, and escape east xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What would actually be crazy is if Sandy deepened a little bit more, but then got TOO strong, miss the phase, and escape east xD Impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I know xD but I did read that if it were too strong, it could be possible, or atleast landfall morth north, maybe into long island/ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What do you guys think about the winds for here, could this mean they could be even stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Anthony: Can you please post about the status of your home in Sheepshead Bay every 3 hours for so with respect with surge since I live only 2 blocks north of you? Thanks. Hope you stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good luck down there. That surge of SE winds tonight could have widespread 80-90+ gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What do you guys think about the winds for here, could this mean they could be even stronger? Good possibility. Anthony: Can you please post about the status of your home in Sheepshead Bay every 3 hours for so with respect with surge since I live only 2 blocks north of you? Thanks. Hope you stay safe. That's if my power doesn't go out. Good luck down there. That surge of SE winds tonight could have widespread 80-90+ gusts. Thanks Scott. Be careful up there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Upton actually decreased the forecast winds from 85 to 75 MPH in their latest advisory. I am very baffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Anthony: Can you please post about the status of your home in Sheepshead Bay every 3 hours for so with respect with surge since I live only 2 blocks north of you? Thanks. Hope you stay safe. I'm 10 min from Riis park & water HAS broken the sand walls& coming up/past boardwalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is scary stuff. I declare this the storm from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fiveboroughs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have a friend who lives at the seawall at the end of Dover Street in Manhattan Beach, Brooklyn - three kids under 10 years old and a macho new boyfriend. They aren't evacuating. Should they have evacuated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 11Z Wind Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Impossible Shes already phasing. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Storm SANDY: Observed By Air Force #302 Storm #18 in Atlantic Ocean Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 94KT (108.1mph 174.1km/h) In SE Quadrant At 10:14:00Z Estimated Max Surface Winds 84.6KT (97.3mph 156.7km/h) * Misc Remarks: MAX FL TEMP 17 C 118 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTRMAX OUTBOUND SFMR SFC WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 10:01:30Z; Date/Time of Recon Report: Monday, October 29, 2012 4:41:00 AM (Mon, 29 Oct 2012 09:41:00 GMT) Position of the center: 36° 10' N 070° 40' W (36.2°N 70.7°W) [see Map] Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2604m (Normal: 3011) Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 42KT (48.3MPH 77.8km/h) Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 62nm (71.3miles) From Center At Bearing 308° Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 46KT (52.9mph 85.2km/h) From 078° Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 70nm (80.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 308° Minimum pressure: 948mb (27.99in) Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm * = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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