JonClaw Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there any reason to believe that the flooding potential might be underestimated? Flooding already in many spots and the storm is only just knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 GFS seems to come in south of last few runs near or south of Toms River. Assuming the consensus is still for a ACY to Sandy Hook landfall. The NHC holding firm south towards Cape May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 GFS seems to come in south of last few runs near or south of Toms River. Assuming the consensus is still for a ACY to Sandy Hook landfall. The NHC holding firm south towards Cape May... A section from NHC disco. HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 SANDY HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 035/12. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WITH SANDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS... AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER LANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF SANDY SURVIVES THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 34.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 38.7N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 39.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 40.6N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z 43.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 45.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z 46.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 GFS seems to come in south of last few runs near or south of Toms River. Assuming the consensus is still for a ACY to Sandy Hook landfall. The NHC holding firm south towards Cape May... I think the Sat clearly confirms a more southern track, if only a tick, she's fully made the turn to the north. No matter if its a S. Jersey or central Jersey. NYC is in for some serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 03Z Wind Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 did anyone see the wind-field map they showed on ch.7? it showed wicked winds over LI.... prolonged period of gusts to near 80mph. and a gaping hole of sub 25 mph gusts in central NJ after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think the Sat clearly confirms a more southern track, if only a tick, she's fully made the turn to the north. No matter if its a S. Jersey or central Jersey. NYC is in for some serious trouble. it wouldnt surprise me if landfall occured closer the seaside hts area. Either way as you said its 30 - 36 hours of tropical storm force winds and a huge surge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For those wondering why we haven't seen precip yet, there is a dry layer around 700mb. the RH at 700mb dramatically increases between 06 and 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 did anyone see the wind-field map they showed on ch.7? it showed wicked winds over LI.... prolonged period of gusts to near 80mph. and a gaping hole of sub 25 mph gusts in central NJ after landfall. stick w/ mt holly updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For those wondering why we haven't seen precip yet, there is a dry layer around 700mb. the RH at 700mb dramatically increases between 06 and 09z. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/anim8wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 stick w/ mt holly updates it was an animated depiction, which i assume was from one of the models. i guess the question is, if we can get near the center of the circulation, how much is it going to save us from the higher winds (at least temporarily)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there a place to find good current upper-air analysis graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there a place to find good current upper-air analysis graphics? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Is there a place to find good current upper-air analysis graphics? I have some posted in the tracking sandy thread in the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Tuesday early morning, even w/ Sandy inland, maybe enough LL lapse rates for serious gusts on Long Island, and in an onshore direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Remember guys. Don't forgot about the duration of the winds. Maximas are impressive, but so is the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is just amazing... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/anim8wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is just amazing... http://www.meteo.psu...TL/anim8wv.html Clearly see the block pushing down as Sandy moves north which will make her turn northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Clearly see the block pushing down as Sandy moves north which will make her turn northwest. It's just incredible what's about to occur... The phase, etc... You can see how its all going to evolve.. How a weather model (the euro) saw this 7-8 days ago is equally incredible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 RGEM looks around Toms River maybe just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The Battery has already been at minor flood stage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 John what words come to your mind when you look at that image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Amazing how she has scoured out the dry air from her eastern side over the last 24 hours. She sure is maintaining at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 John what words come to your mind when you look at that image? I'm gonna go with something like: F*CK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 John what words come to your mind when you look at that image? Less words and more thoughts that it is highly unlikely we'll see something like this for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NWS Extratrop surge site just updated with the 0Z GFS info - NYC and south, greatly increased surge over 18Z (which seems like a hiccup) but even higher than 12Z Storm Tides of 10 feet for Atlantic City, 12 feet for Sandy Hook, 11 feet for the Battery. However tides in LI Sound are lower than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The RAP has a band of heavy rain moving through from southeast to northwest timed with a big uptick in 10m winds between 09z and 12z. This matches well with the increasing RH at 700mb on the NAM and should be the point where we really start to see some of the better gusts especially along the coast. You can see the winds really getting going at the end of the RAP run at 12 hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 04Z Wind Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 John what words come to your mind when you look at that image? You can clearly see the shortwave on that loop coming in to scoop Sandy up and bring her in. Something truly amazing, and a storm that will likely be remembered along the lines of the greats for this area (Donna, Hazel, 1944, 1938, etc). And I might have spoken too soon about Sandy making it past 70W, looks like she's turning fast enough that it might not happen. Central/S NJ landfall looks more likely in that case. No difference in impact for us however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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