nycsnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah definitely. & I read something about the momentum of the forward motion helping to? Or similar to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And the SMFR sensor is still detecting hurricane sustained winds at the surface. I wonder if we might be able to see sustained winds near hurricane force on the beaches here. Some of the models still have the storm strengthening another 5mb or so, and it also is going to be approaching a 1030mb high pressure. A lot of people are thinking 40-45mph sustained but I have to question if that is an underestimate and we're really going to see much more powerful wind, with the coastal stations seeing obs like 60 G 90 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And the SMFR sensor is still detecting hurricane sustained winds at the surface. What sustained winds do they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah definitely. Seeing the NAM ramp up the sustained winds is pretty concerning too .. on both ends of the storm now. Last night it had 25-30kts sustained in many areas with higher on LI..now we're at 40kts sustained (obviously much higher gusts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gusts maps from instantweathermaps shows: 50-70mph gusts from 7am to 1pm 70-80mph from 2pm to 6pm A lull for a couple hours Then 60mph winds on the backside from 10pm to 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Models are progging a LLJ near 90-100kts just off the deck tomorrow. I'm not sure if you saw this post in the SNE thread, but this applies to NYC and why I would be concerned near 00z. "the south coast of SNE as Sandy moves into NJ. It's here where another enhanced LLJ from the SE moves in and nails CT. This imo is probably Kevin's best shot. The reason is due to warm surface area that will be ripped in on E-SE winds, yet temps aloft will actually cool thanks to CAA aloft from the SE! This will cause low level lapse rates to steepen and therefore higher momentum transfer possible." So I expect that many 60mph gusts in the afternoon and the potential increases with a shift to SE winds. What do you mean by the warm surface area? But wow at there being CAA from aloft coming out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Parts of Eastern VA already have radar estimates of 10+" of rain and it's still pouring with no end in site. I think the models may have significantly underforecasted the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 looks like the storm is starting to undergo another round of strengthening as sandy starts interacting with that shortwave. anybody also notice the convection around the center has started to fire again nicely? im really optimistic that this storm makes landfall as a storm sub 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What do you mean by the warm surface area? But wow at there being CAA from aloft coming out of the SE. That was horrible wording. I meant warmer surface air, under what will be CAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 02Z Wind Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 02Z Wind Gusts wow gusts are really ramping up across LI. we should really get going later on tonight and early tommorow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like Sandy should make it past 70W, but she'll make a harder turn left perhaps due to the block and incoming S/W (which you can see nicely on water vapor loops barreling like a mofo through the Miss. Valley)? I'm thinking probably Monmouth County someplace for landfall. The timing however is horrendous for many shore locations, since landfall looks to be around 0z or just before. High tide is just after 8PM for many of us, and it will be during very strong southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 wow gusts are really ramping up across LI. we should really get going later on tonight and early tommorow morning We've definitely had some good gusts over the last hour, maybe some topping 40mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290247 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like Sandy should make it past 70W, but she'll make a harder turn left perhaps due to the block and incoming S/W (which you can see nicely on water vapor loops barreling like a mofo through the Miss. Valley)? I'm thinking probably Monmouth County someplace for landfall. The timing however is horrendous for many shore locations, since landfall looks to be around 0z or just before. High tide is just after 8PM for many of us, and it will be during very strong southerly winds. Yep, the turn is already starting. Per the latest advisory she gained 0.5deg of latitude while losing 0.4deg longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Very impressive gusts well ahead of the storm, it hasn't even made the turn yet. 35, maybe near 40 mph already for coastal areas. I'm a bit further inland, gusts 25-30 mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I wonder if we might be able to see sustained winds near hurricane force on the beaches here. Some of the models still have the storm strengthening another 5mb or so, and it also is going to be approaching a 1030mb high pressure. A lot of people are thinking 40-45mph sustained but I have to question if that is an underestimate and we're really going to see much more powerful wind, with the coastal stations seeing obs like 60 G 90 or so. I agree that it's possible somewhere. 40-45 sustained is serious business and pretty uncommon to measure in its own right; rarely do we see higher values, but it happens occasionally. The 3/13/10 nor'easter had peak sustained winds in immediate coastal NJ of around/slightly higher than 50 mph, and the highest ASOS sustained wind I'm aware of was 46 mph at KNEL (Lakewood - Ocean County). In the derecho this past June, I measured 47 mph sustained (58 gust) at my LBI station, and ACY had 61 (74 gust). 46 mph/40 kt sustained can be done, but it's a very impressive number. My best bet for a 60+ sustained wind measurement would be JFK, FRG or ISP after the center passes in the SE (CAA? Crazy) flow. It could happen in the northerly flow in NY or NJ too, but I think one of those 3 south shore LI stations has the best chance at seeing 60 sustained. I'd put my guess slightly lower, but probably not lower than 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm not exactly sure what to expect from this system in my area. Usually we do well with wind on nor'easters .. but not sure how it will behave with the different direction of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I was thinking that the local news stations are going to be the longest on the air continuously since 9/11/01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm not exactly sure what to expect from this system in my area. Usually we do well with wind on nor'easters .. but not sure how it will behave with the different direction of the system. the shift SE will probably cause the most damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Arthur Kill Road in Staten Island is under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Facebook Nicole Mitchell Only the hard-core weather geeks will probably understand this. The short version is that Sandy still has some very tropical characteristics! From a former military colleague (Rich Henning) who now does the NOAA side of the hurricane missions: For my tropical friends....a pretty amazing G-IV research mission across Hurricane Sandy is just concluding. The jet bombed the center from 150 mb and found 951 mb with a dropsonde. A P-3 fixing the center from 12,000 feet dropped a sonde two minutes earlier and found the same 951 central surface pressure. The G-IV showed how intact the warm core remains all the way up to 300mb and how surprisingl y light the shear is over the core up at 200mb (with both directional diffluence and speed divergence making things amazingly favorable to keep Sandy remaining tropical for the moment). On my P-3 mission earlier this morning there was enough core convection to briefly form an elliptical eyewall for one of our center fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That was horrible wording. I meant warmer surface air, under what will be CAA aloft. Oh okay, cool. It's really neat to see this on the NAM at 0z, Tuesday. SE winds are advecting warm air at the surface, but at 700mb, the SE winds are advecting cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NYSE now completely closing. NYSE Arca (the electronic exchange) will ALSO be shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 0z NAM Bukift, has steep 900-950mb lapse rates, beginning 8pm tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 0z NAM Bukift, has steep 900-950mb lapse rates, beginning 8pm tomorrow night. There is a relative max of 900hPa winds over the area at that time as well with the NAM showing widespread 70+kt values after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 https://mobile.twitter.com/hunterw/status/262719817235177473/photos brooklyn beginning to flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Nasdaq is shutting down even though it's completely electronic. The fear is even with remote trading most traders are still in the NE so a massive power outage could lead to an illiquid market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Nasdaq is shutting down even though it's completely electronic. The fear is even with remote trading most traders are still in the NE so a massive power outage could lead to an illiquid market. Yea they're taking down NYSE Arca for the same reason. Complete shut down, maybe now I won't have to go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 You can even see cooler air at 925mb being advected into the area relative to the surface once you're beyond 00z, tomorrow night. That helps to steepen the lapse rates below 900mb. Really cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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