Chaser25973 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Towners Wx Page @townerswxpage uh oh RT @MattNoyesNECN: RT @ryan_wichman: Wow, Hurricane Hunters report founding 108 mph winds just below 10,000 feet: http://bit.ly/Sm2DJZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 90MPH cane next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 57 kts at the surface translates to about 66 mph..... assuming the recon numbers of 102kt - 45 kts as you drop to sea level is correct. 90MPH cane next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Based on recon, there's a 45 knot difference between flight level winds and surface winds. 50% reduction Hm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks pretty impressive, but just not mixing winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM coming in just a bit further south I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM looks 75 mi south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 0z Nam initialized at 968. FAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM initialized at 968mb........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM looks 75 mi south so far. That's pretty far? no? South of what? projected landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 0z Nam initialized at 968. FAIL. Seems like all the globals are doing that. At any rate NAM definitely south, looks to LF Ocean City.... New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Seems like all the globals are doing that. At any rate NAM definitely south, looks to LF Ocean City.... New Jersey. Isn't that just because of the resolution of the model? And the NAM isn't south (from the maps im looking at) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 But it ends up maybe 25 miles further north...more dangerous for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Crazy.... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Blizzard Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 0z NAM LF in Central NJ again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 01Z Wind Gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Isn't that just because of the resolution of the model? And the NAM isn't south (from the maps im looking at) Correct, I was looking at 12Z. It's the same or a touch south of 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM right into CNJ. What's the lowest pressure reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Stronger 10m winds...40kts sustained for 6 hours anywhere in NE NJ eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 thats by far my biggest concern and that situation just doesnt be looking to improve as of now. id like to get one of our experienced mets in here to explain why and if those conditions will improve It has 70kt surface winds right now and 100kt flight level winds. So you're still getting winds consistently around 80mph right at sea level, and that's 175 miles from the storm. Did you expect any more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looking at my model output in the Long Island region. Currently seeing winds going above 40MPH after 03Z, then above 50MPH after 29/13ZZ and around 06044G64MPH around 23Z onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 thats by far my biggest concern and that situation just doesnt be looking to improve as of now. id like to get one of our experienced mets in here to explain why and if those conditions will improve How about the fact that the storm is located over the open ocean and observation sites are not that close to each other like they are over land? Most of the observations were taken hundreds of miles from the center! Based on those maps, how could we possibly know if the winds are mixing down to the surface or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 folks, there is an inversion above a 925 mb jet that reaches over 80 kts. That isnt that high above the ground when your pressures are going to be in the 970s so that means you can mix down hurricane force gusts. PLUS, there is potential for precip loading in heavier rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 umm this is kind of the situation where i better not ask for more than i bargain for huh? just was bringing up a future concern for winds when the storm does impact our area I just don't understand what you are saying. It's pretty standard to have a 30% reduction between flight level winds and surface winds. Currently, flight level winds are 102 kts (110mph) and surface winds are 70kts (77mph). If we even see gusts of the same speed as the current surface winds (near 80mph), we're going to have a lot of problems. I think it seems pretty normal for a strong Category 1 hurricane. We should also see the wind field continue to spread out more as it becomes extratropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Models are progging a LLJ near 90-100kts just off the deck tomorrow. I'm not sure if you saw this post in the SNE thread, but this applies to NYC and why I would be concerned near 00z. "the south coast of SNE as Sandy moves into NJ. It's here where another enhanced LLJ from the SE moves in and nails CT. This imo is probably Kevin's best shot. The reason is due to warm surface area that will be ripped in on E-SE winds, yet temps aloft will actually cool thanks to CAA aloft from the SE! This will cause low level lapse rates to steepen and therefore higher momentum transfer possible." So I expect that many 60mph gusts in the afternoon and the potential increases with a shift to SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That's another thing, w/ the new NAM - when is landfall tomorrow? around 8-10pm? I feel we'll be dealing w/ this storm until well into tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Models are progging a LLJ near 90-100kts just off the deck tomorrow. I'm not sure if you saw this post in the SNE thread, but this applies to NYC and why I would be concerned near 00z. "the south coast of SNE as Sandy moves into NJ. It's here where another enhanced LLJ from the SE moves in and nails CT. This imo is probably Kevin's best shot. The reason is due to warm surface area that will be ripped in on E-SE winds, yet temps aloft will actually cool thanks to CAA aloft from the SE! This will cause low level lapse rates to steepen and therefore higher momentum transfer possible." So I expect that many 60mph gusts in the afternoon and the potential increases with a shift to SE winds. Squalls have the potential to mix down some of those winds, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And the SMFR sensor is still detecting hurricane sustained winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Squalls have the potential to mix down some of those winds, for sure. Yeah definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 You guys really need to read more and post less, but I'm sure ill get some rambling post back from you, saying I'm picking on you. The outer rain bands associated with Sandy aren't even anywhere near the NYC region, and are barely coming into my area. KACY is gusting over 50 now, and the storm is at least 20 hours from landfall. What more do you guys want??? Couldn't agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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