jm1220 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT AND POSSIBLY NYC METRO DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS LOW LEVEL CAA BEGINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 85-90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. from Upton the worst could be after landfall with south southeast winds What's awful is that these winds are timed with high tide, since the storm might make landfall by 0z. High tide is around 8-8:30. Just a horrible situation. Still watching the satellite to see when it makes the left turn. I still think that if Sandy makes it east of 70W, NYC has a better chance in all this for a landfall east of them, but it's a minor and diminishing hope at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting that the models have sped up timing a bit. NAM now has some of the strongest winds (prior to landfall) beginning at 2pm tomorrow. Euro is about a 10pm to midnight landfall, GFS/NAM between 6 and 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS is wetter this run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 000 NOUS41 KPHI 281841 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-291200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ The end of number 3 is crazy. I wish these statements were more readily available such as the local news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cops are going around with loudspeakers telling people to leave. What area are you in ? No cops here in bensonhurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What area are you in ? No cops here in bensonhurst Brighton beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS is wetter this run for the area. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What area are you in ? No cops here in bensonhurst Bensonhurst is not part of the evacuation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Maps? Not home. It bumped slightly north with landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We had police riding around announcing evac orders earlier today in Greenpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Don, great pics, keep'em coming as best you can. Surprised how high "low" tide has been today in Port Jefferson, a place likely for high tidal flooding, but I know you access an area right where Sound ends, so there should be quite a flood there tomorrow. Either way, work tomorrow, as hopefully Suffolk County Executive dismisses us early enough. 6000 county employees (besides cops and emt) on roads during a storm of this magnitude seems real strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cops are going around with loudspeakers telling people to leave. Same here. They had a massive presence in front of the UN I guess as a staging ground. Hearing them on the loudspeakers is really unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Is the worst going to be tomorrow morning or night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Is the worst going to be tomorrow morning or night ? Night. Earthlight stated why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Forecast wind gusts (mph) from my latest WRF model run, extracted from a gridpoint in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Mandatory evacuations finally ordered for low-lying sections of Jersey City. Must be completed by 7AM tomorrow. Took long enough!! Just a few blocks from my parents' house. Never thought I'd see the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Surge forecast seems to have been dialed back a bit for points like Bergen Point and the Battery. Now only forecasting 9.5 feet at the Battery total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^Was unaware it was higher than that at the battery at one point. That's still well over flood stage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^Was unaware it was higher than that at the battery at one point. That's still well over flood stage though. Yeah, IIRC it was up to 11.5 earlier and the Bergen Point gauge was forecast to hit 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah, IIRC it was up to 11.5 earlier and the Bergen Point gauge was forecast to hit 12. Upton was higher than the verbatim forecast from that website in the warning this afternoon - Battery was only at 11 feet earlier on the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How will this compare to Gloria in '85 with regard to wind damage, power outages, etc?. We had no lights for over a week and that storm was not very wet but there was widespread wind damage but it was a fast mover (I think it had a forward a speed of 25-30 mph. I have people asking me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Surge forecast seems to have been dialed back a bit for points like Bergen Point and the Battery. Now only forecasting 9.5 feet at the Battery total. I believe 9.5 was what the Battery reached during Irene. I wonder why the values were scaled back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ^Was unaware it was higher than that at the battery at one point. That's still well over flood stage though. There's actually 2 Battery Park Observations Points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I believe 9.5 was what the Battery reached during Irene. I wonder why the values were scaled back? I believe it's based entirely off the GFS - values for Sandy Point, the Battery went down by a foot - however, LI Sound surges remained the same or got even higher (biggest increase was about a foot for New London. Guess it has to do with the wind and direction - storm moves faster, less buildup for NY Harbor. I believe the increase for New London CT is because the surge now more precisely matches the evening high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How will this compare to Gloria in '85 with regard to wind damage, power outages, etc?. We had no lights for over a week and that storm was not very wet but there was widespread wind damage but it was a fast mover (I think it had a forward a speed of 25-30 mph. I have people asking me about it. Highest sustained wind speed at KISP during Hurricane Gloria was 57.5mph. It is possible that we could see those kinds of winds again, but sustained winds here on LI should max out in the low to mid 50's with gusts 70-90mph. Though Sandy's forward speed will be in our favor for higher winds, Sandy's forward speed isn't expected to be as fast as Gloria's. Wind damage and power outages could be the same, if not, weaker, than Gloria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just looking at my output for the JFK region. Tracking to winds to be going above 50MPH Gusts after 29/13Z and approaching 60MPH around 17Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'll be doing a live chat at 8pm until ??. Click on CHAT on the menu bar to access the chat room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I believe 9.5 was what the Battery reached during Irene. I wonder why the values were scaled back? In the archives, Upton said it was around 3.5 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I have a bit of a bone to pick/question about these surge graphs. I hear people (ex: just read Tom Skilling's update about the surge) saying there is a "9-11 foot surge" coming. Is the tidal flow really include in the surge? Otherwise, compared to 'normal' high tide, the surge is "only" 4-6 feet. How exactly is the surge being defined here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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