North Balti Zen Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can someone explain in simple terms why it looks like the precipitation is hitting a wall as the bands rotate west? Because the center of the storm is still moving to the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can someone explain in simple terms why it looks like the precipitation is hitting a wall as the bands rotate west? The Hurricane is currently heading NE, not towards the coast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 850 wind magnitude SD showing +6. Ouch. Nova bullseye? What kinda surface wind would the grey area be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thunderman, what does that graphic mean? Yoda, Essentially the graph shows you how many standard deviations the forecast winds are from the average winds at that time of year. If the distribution is bell shaped, the 6 standard deviation wind field means this is a very rare event and that the 850 winds are rarely ever this strong at this time of year at the location where the winds are show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Should we start looking for a slow turn towards the north soon? Someone posted a satellite view in the NE forum. On the last few frames, it looks like it started to take a northernly turn. Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Someone posted a satellite in the NE forum. On the last few frames, it looks like it started to take a northerly turn. Anyone else see that? Yep, I noticed this as well. I was actually gonna post and see if anyone else thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thunderman, what does that graphic mean? Sorry, should have explained more. It basically just shows the statistical standard deviation of the chosen parameter. I would try to explain it, but wiki can prob do it better. Basically the higher the number the more anomalous the forecasted value is on the positive side .... the lower, the more anomalous the forecasted value is on the negative side. The +6 over NOVA/DC area correlates to an anomaly in at least the top 3% (extremely anomalous in other words). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'll third the beginning of the turn more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Someone posted a satellite view in the NE forum. On the last few frames, it looks like it started to take a northernly turn. Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yoda, Essentially the graph shows you how many standard deviations the forecast winds are from the average winds at that time of year. If the distribution is bell shaped, the 6 standard deviation wind field means this is a very rare event and that the 850 winds are rarely ever this strong at this time of year at the location where the winds are show. What would 6 standard deviations equate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 LWX is issuing local HWS's... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 842 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 842 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT... ...SANDY TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND FLOOD-PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS, INCLUDING THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, MARYLAND FROM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO GARRETT COUNTY, NORTHERN VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE OBJECTIVE OF THESE STATEMENTS IS TO PROVIDE A SINGLE PRODUCT THAT INTEGRATES THE WARNING PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. SANDY LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE FOLLOWING RELEASE TIMES: 11 PM...5 AM...11 AM...AND 5 PM. AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0N...LONGITUDE 70.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DC. SANDY WAS MOVING NE AT 15 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SANDY WILL IMPACT THE REGION WELL BEFORE IT COMES ASHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUMMARY OF THREATS ------------------ THE MAIN THREATS FOR SANDY WILL BE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. HIGH WINDS ---------- * WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OCCURRING BETWEEN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. * HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...PT LOOKOUT MD...AND FREDERICK MD. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. * COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINS FROM SANDY...THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. RAINFALL AND FLOODING --------------------- * 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN JUST WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA. * 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 270 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA. * 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER BASIN INCLUDING CUMBERLAND MD. * 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66 INCLUDING CHARLOTTESVILLE VA. * THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS...CREEKS AND SMALL RIVERS STARTING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL FLOODING ---------------- * WITH THE FULL MOON ON MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. COUNTER TO THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CAUSE A BLOW-OUT TIDE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EAST FACING BEACHES ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES THAT WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF TIDAL FLOODING AND RESULT IN SIMILAR IMPACTS. * AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND DAWN ON TUESDAY...WATER WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AND BEING TO PILE UP IN THE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. SNOWFALL -------- * IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 2500 FEET THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW. * THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WOULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * BE PREPARED FOR EXTENDED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES...REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE AND RIDE SANDY OUT. * REFRAIN FROM ANY UNNECESSARY TRAVEL. * ENSURE LOOSE ITEMS ON YOUR PROPERTY ARE SECURED. * IF POWER LINES ARE DOWN...STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL ELECTRICAL UTILITY COMPANY. * IF YOU SHOULD HAVE EMERGENCY TRAVEL...IF YOU COME UPON FLOODED ROADWAYS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SUBMERGED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND AND DONT DROWN. * IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR...PLEASE FOLLOW MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS AND ENSURE THAT IT IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. * DO NOT USE CHARCOAL GRILLS IN ENCLOSED AREAS. * MARINERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH SLACK LINE IN THEIR BOAT`S MOORINGS TO ACCEPT A BLOW OUT TIDE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. * PERIODICALLY CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS TO ENSURE THEY ARE SAFE. * PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY HAVE FILLED THEIR PRESCRIPTIONS AND HAVE A FULL TANK OF GAS. IF NOT THESE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS SUNDAY EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT 11 PM EDT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 What would 6 standard deviations equate to? At least a top 3% event but probably higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yoda, Essentially the graph shows you how many standard deviations the forecast winds are from the average winds at that time of year. If the distribution is bell shaped, the 6 standard deviation wind field means this is a very rare event and that the 850 winds are rarely ever this strong at this time of year at the location where the winds are show. Didn't see this before. Hopefully I didn't confuse anyone ... this is a much better explanation that the one I gave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Because the center of the storm is still moving to the NE? That would make sense if the back end of the precip was also moving towards the East at an appreciable rate. The bands have just been stacking up against a wall to the West all day in the same spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 After looking at every available sat loop available I agree. The east component of the track appears to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Hurricane force wind gusts... are more than 70 mph and hurricane force implies sustained but nice to see it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let the radar hallucinations begin. The storm is going to miss us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let the radar hallucinations begin. The storm is going to miss us!! In winter this is where it keeps going ne past forecast before clobbering boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let the radar hallucinations begin. The storm is going to miss us!! I am only going to get 3" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 In winter this is where it keeps going ne past forecast before clobbering boston. In winter this is when I get slammed for ruining someones life because the forecast busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 In winter this is when I get slammed for ruining someones life because the forecast busted. as much as i love a good bust this one needs to perform given all the talk from everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 as much as i love a good bust this one needs to perform given all the talk from everyone. As I told my wife a hit into NJ is a lock and this looks like it will go along with the feb 5-6th storm as one of the great modeling triumphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 As I told my wife a hit into NJ is a lock and this looks like it will go along with the feb 5-6th storm as one of the great modeling triumphs. Yeah, the Euro was very good way out and all of the globals were close (at least showing a VA-north EC hit). I don't think we had long periods of crazy stuff like Spain hits or fizzles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Whatever day the radio show was ( I think Wed?) , the models had pretty much zeroed in to somewhere between delmarva and nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah, the Euro was very good way out and all of the globals were close (at least showing a VA-north EC hit). I don't think we had long periods of crazy stuff like Spain hits or fizzles. I agree. The EURO was correct and for a long time. It never wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Heard a rumor there was already damage to the OC Fishing Pier... has anyone else heard that? I don't think conditions have deteriorated enough to have damaged that yet (not that it won't happen eventually)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 In winter this is where it keeps going ne past forecast before clobbering boston. Yah, I give this statement a thumbs up. Thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Saw some video from OC boardwalk and water is almost up to the boardwalk already. Bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 As I told my wife a hit into NJ is a lock and this looks like it will go along with the feb 5-6th storm as one of the great modeling triumphs. Someone was mentioning on Twitter that extreme blocking makes the forecast easier. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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