Snowpocalypse Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 See some blizzard warnings just hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Daryl, I deleted my post after you made yours but I agree that people need to be real careful about blowing off a solution based on having too weak a surface low. I'm more worried about the already insane solutions actually being noticeably weaker than reality. I'm all for a once in a lifetime storm but there comes a point where you really start to get worried and I'm near that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 See some blizzard warnings just hoisted. 48hr snow totals the GFS is pumping out. Looks pretty ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not much change with 18z gfs. Central NJ lf @ 958mb. Moves center right along the mason dixon. 5-6" rain for pretty much everyone along and west of 95. Totals increase as you go east w/ 7-9 on delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks all for the excellent explanations. Does the same pressure differences in the solutions change anything irt sensible wx at the surface? Doesn't look like it to me but I'm far from an expert on this stuff. Edit: I want to add one more question that seems important. If the GFS / NAM show the pressure dropping 10+/- mb between init and lf, can we assume the same 10mb drop from where we are now? A 940mb LF is quite concerning but I'm not sure expecting something like that is realistic. I would be a little leary if most of the drop in pressure came in say the first 3-6 hours, as it could simply be the model adjusting. However, if you see the pressure dropping between 6h and 18h, there is probably something to it (at least in terms of the model forecasting intensification). Also, in this case, it is not just the central pressure that is important, as the wind field seems to be quite broad (so a 10 mb drop in the center of this storm is not the same as a 10 mb drop in a tightly wound, smaller spatial scale TC)......as it also depends on what is going on in other parts of the storm as well as the periphery thereof (i.e. pressure gradient). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tangier Island already flooded. Crazy. We are just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tangier Island already flooded. Crazy. We are just getting started. Are you on Tangier?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Are you on Tangier?! No he isnt.... but I just posted a pic of it to the OBS thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
843wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 See some blizzard warnings just hoisted. Via Twitter and TWC, already 3 inches on the ground at High Knob, Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sorry Yoda. Didnt see your post. Saw it on DT's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sorry Yoda. Didnt see your post. Saw it on DT's page. Thats ok... didnt see your post until just after I posted the pic from his page as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The waters under a Hurricane Force Wind Warning have winds gusting up to 70 kts in them... which is 80 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tangier Island already flooded. Crazy. We are just getting started. Tangier floods when a water glass gets knocked over at the dinner table. It's like 3' above sea level and only like 10% of the island is actually high enough for people to live on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tangier floods when a water glass gets knocked over at the dinner table. It's like 3' above sea level and only like 10% of the island is actually high enough for people to live on. Oh yeah. I understand. But its gonna be a log 4 days for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Oh yeah. I understand. But its gonna be a log 4 days for those folks. They should be good to go once the nw winds kick in after the center gets north of the mouth of the bay. The lower end of the bay is swelling a bit because of the strong east winds out in the ocean. I couldn't imagine this storm making a VA beach landfall. It would be absolute devastation for the low lying areas around the chesapeake. I'm very relieved because I love the bay and it's too fragile. Much more fragile than LI sound (not minimizing them up there though. it's gonna be bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 They should be good to go once the nw winds kick in after the center gets north of the mouth of the bay. The lower end of the bay is swelling a bit because of the strong east winds out in the ocean. I couldn't imagine this storm making a VA beach landfall. It would be absolute devastation for the low lying areas around the chesapeake. I'm very relieved because I love the bay and it's too fragile. Much more fragile than LI sound (not minimizing them up there though. it's gonna be bad). It still has to absorb all the rain and sediment that will be flooding the bay which is another problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It still has to absorb all the rain and sediment that will be flooding the bay which is another problem. At least it's late october (tiny silver lining). Colder water temps and moving towards winter will help mitigate some of the pollution irt the fish (which we both hold dear). But you're absolutely right. It's never good when the bay gets crushed with silt and fresh water. Maybe one of these days we'll figure out how to get the oyster population to take off again. That's really the only thing that can save water quality. And it's been missing for far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 At least it's late october (tiny silver lining). Colder water temps and moving towards winter will help mitigate some of the pollution irt the fish (which we both hold dear). But you're absolutely right. It's never good when the bay gets crushed with silt and fresh water. Maybe one of these days we'll figure out how to get the oyster population to take off again. That's really the only thing that can save water quality. And it's been missing for far too long. Oysters and grass but you need the one to help the other. I can remember riding around looking for softshells with clear water and lots of grass around Brooms Island as a kid. Not so clear anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 22Z My SmartCast Update Atlantic City Region: Looking for winds to increase to 40-50MPH from 00Z to 12Z, then increase to 50-55MPH from 12Z to 20Z, Heavy rain bands from 09Z through 29/22Z, with average rainfall rates of .33” per hour. 24-Hour Rainfall accumulations will be around 4.5”, and peak gust will be 54MPH. In addition, visibilities around 1-2 miles from 29/15Z through 22Z. Street Flooding and Isolated flashing Flooding potential rapidly increases after 09Z. Dover AFB Region: Continued winds up to around 40MPH til 10Z, then increased to 45-52MPH through 29/22Z. Heavy rain will move into the areas around 10Z, with average rainfall rates of around .4” per hour possible. Looking for 24-Hour rainfall accumulation of 5.12” possible, wind max peak gust of 54MPH through 29/22Z. Dover region has the bullseye for heaviest precip during the analysis run. BWI Region: Winds continuing to gust around 30MPH through 29/14Z. Then increasing to 35-40MPH after. Light to Moderate rain til 14Z, then heavy rain will began through 29/22Z, with rainfall rates of around .42” per hour. 24-Hour rainfall accumulation of 3.82” possible, with max wind gust around 45MPH. Philly/Langley/Andrews area: Looking at similar conditions to BWI region, 24-Hour precip accumulation of around 3.1 to 3.7” possible, with peak wind gusts around 54mph through 29/22Z. JFK Region, showing some strong winds starting to enter the next 24-hours, with wind gust potential of up to 59MPH possible around 29/19Z, in addition to heavy rainbands pushing through at this time. Added 12 more cities on my output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ksstormhunter, What is this smartcast? Is it a value added product based on output from NWS models? Is it your product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Oysters and grass but you need the one to help the other. I can remember riding around looking for softshells with clear water and lots of grass around Brooms Island as a kid. Not so clear anymore. I watched many sunrises doing the same thing in St. Leonard's Creek. Obviously, this huge flush of freshwater and sediment is not going to help the efforts in trying to replenish the oysters, but hopefully it doesn't impact the crabs too much. Their numbers have been much improved the last couple of years, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 CTP updated their High Wind Warnings to 70mph URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 616 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...STRONG WINDS AND POWER OUTAGES LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... .THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING STRONG...GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. PAZ036-056>059-063>066-291000- /O.CON.KCTP.HW.W.0002.121029T1200Z-121030T1600Z/ FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG... HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK... LANCASTER 616 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...NORTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. * TIMING...BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES...AND WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW- a fair number of 18z tropical models have Sandy entering DE bay or southern NJ. Not a huge shift south from 12z but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I watched many sunrises doing the same thing in St. Leonard's Creek. Obviously, this huge flush of freshwater and sediment is not going to help the efforts in trying to replenish the oysters, but hopefully it doesn't impact the crabs too much. Their numbers have been much improved the last couple of years, Yup, been doing well even way up in the Bush the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'll be doing a live chat at 8pm until ??. Click on CHAT on the menu bar to access the chat room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 70.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 850 wind magnitude SD showing +6. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Should we start looking for a slow turn towards the north soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can someone explain in simple terms why it looks like the precipitation is hitting a wall as the bands rotate west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thunderman, what does that graphic mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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