COBRIEN85 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Has George Mason called off classes yet? My younger sister goes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Kfdk Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this was already posted but the 12z HWRF landfalls at ~934 mb...and it initialized the current pressure much better than other models. Borrowed this from the sne thread. There is additional discussion related to a landfall in the 940's. I've been wondering about why the globals appear to have central pressure higher than what it is currently but I don't know enough about model mechanics to offer any explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A bit low on current winds. IAN and anyone else, preferably pro-forecasters and mets: The EURO seems to be consensus now with Sandy into Marcus Hook and then by Wed. south of York before resuming north. GFS stalls Sandy near Martainsburg. How would you weight these to get a verifiable-likely average? Thinking EURO 80% and GFS 20%. Others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Borrowed this from the sne thread. There is additional discussion related to a landfall in the 940's. I've been wondering about why the globals appear to have central pressure higher than what it is currently but I don't know enough about model mechanics to offer any explanation. Perhaps the models are silent on the behavior of a cyclone with rapidly cooling center as it crosses the baroclinic zone and then sequentially experiences a vorticity transfer as the shortwave trough to the west tilts negatively a tad and energizes are brief opportunity for strengthening before landfall. Strange to see a system increase in strength as the core chills by 24*C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks, Looks like all the models are in pretty close agreement. Does the Euro that you have give you 85o or 900 mb winds? I guess I'm aksing if it has winds similar to the GFS since the nam winds are a little weaker. No...it is pretty rudimentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 LOL Euro DCA beats Snowtober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the fetch of E/ENE winds pointed at the outer banks and Virginia is very impressive, must be creating some surge and erosion during the current tide cycle, probably significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No...it is pretty rudimentary Wundermap has Euro winds tho I'm not sure if they are sfc--I think they are. Don't look terribly insane... but they're running low at the moment as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wundermap has Euro winds tho I'm not sure if they are sfc--I think they are. Don't look terribly insane... but they're running low at the moment as well. The wind is there. Just a matter of transporting it the last few thousand feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Mount Holly isn't playing games anymore. If you read only 1 paragraph ... make it point number 3 000 NOUS41 KPHI 281841 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-291200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Trying to make up for the odd decision not to post Trop Storm/Hurricane warnings I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks, Looks like all the models are in pretty close agreement. Does the Euro that you have give you 85o or 900 mb winds? I guess I'm aksing if it has winds similar to the GFS since the nam winds are a little weaker. Max 925mb winds I see over DC is 55 kts at 00z Tuesday in the Euro vs. 75 kts 21-00z in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 peak wind gusts from gfs per doug kammmmereererererer. edit: might be peak for DC.. seems odd areas east are lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ian, I keep seeing that in the models and model discussion. Is that because of the interaction with the trough? Seems odd that it would be more windy there than here otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Max 925mb winds I see over DC is 55 kts at 00z Tuesday in the Euro vs. 75 kts 21-00z in the GFS. Thanks, I wonder how good the euro wind forecasts are....it will be interesting to see what the winds at that level verifies at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No way that image is right... unless you are just showing us Max Gust at DCA... I see you edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ian, I keep seeing that in the models and model discussion. Is that because of the interaction with the trough? Seems odd that it would be more windy there than here otherwise... It does seem there is a consistent max somewhere in between the eastern edge of the Apps and the DC/Balt area. Asked about it earlier if it was all storm induced or some terrain influence as well. I do think coastal areas will still max higher than us but maybe not. Less friction etc though so it seems they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No way that's right... unless you are just showing us Max Gust at DCA... the 11p timestamp makes me think it might just be a snapshot for max in dc but i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z Hurricane models clustered tightly just to south of NHC track (southern third of NJ landfall). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It looks pretty darn good this afternoon.. inner core has rebuilt a good bit. I wonder what happens if it doesn't ET transition fully. I won't join on the NHC bashing but it is weird to have "the biggest storm ever" and no warnings from them north of NC. Will we be able to call it the great hurricane of 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It looks pretty darn good this afternoon.. inner core has rebuilt a good bit. I wonder what happens if it doesn't ET transition fully. I won't join on the NHC bashing but it is weird to have "the biggest storm ever" and no warnings from them north of NC. Will we be able to call it the great hurricane of 2012? It would be kind of funny if it stayed fairly tropical and they had to hoist warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM is wet again, 4+ inches of rain with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 968 mb north of Randy about 50 miles or so at 36... 0c 850 line crossing through... still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 20Z My SmartCast Update Dover AFB Region: Winds picking up to 35-40MPH Gusts from 00Z to 09Z, then increasing to 40-50MPH from 10Z through 20Z. Peak Gust will be around 52MPH. Heavy rain will begin around 12Z with average rainfall rates of .36” per hour through 20Z. 24-Hour total rain accumulation will be 4.03”. Atlantic City Region: Winds picking up to 35-40MPH to 01Z, then increasing to 40-50mph through 29/20Z. Peak wind gusts around 52MPH. Heavy Rain will begin around 11Z, with the heavies precip rolling in around 14Z, with average rainfall rates of .30” per hour. 24-Hour total rain accumulation of 3.31”. BWI Region: Steady winds gusting to 30MPH through 13Z, then increasing to gusts of 40-45MPH through 20Z. Light to Moderate rain through 13Z, then Heavy Rain moves in with rainfall rates of .37” per hour through 20Z. In addition, visibilities will be 1-2 miles after 14Z with heavy rain and fog. Langley/Andrews/Philly/Oceana regions. Tracking continuous strong winds of between 44 and 51MPH through 20Z, heavy rainfall with average precip rates of .33” per hour. Current estimated of additional rainfall for the next 24 hours is between 2 and 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like 4 t0 7 inches of rain total per 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW, the NAM fire wx nest was put over MD/PA/NJ starting at 18Z today: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW, the NAM fire wx nest was put over MD/PA/NJ starting at 18Z today: http://www.emc.ncep..../mmbpll/firewx/ Looks like the LA and Florida to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 LWX is paying attention, LOL. RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT AFTERMIDNIGHT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS WILL START TO BECOME APPARENT. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.