Disc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hurricane models are obviously south of the other globals. Dunno how much weight they have at this point, but they are definitely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hurricane models are obviously south of the other globals. Dunno how much weight they have at this point, but they are definitely south. Secondary landfall in Greenland, FTW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 New NHC update puts Sandy about over Lancaster as a 70mph storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM MOS only has like 30 kts max.. which is decent but not exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM MOS only has like 30 kts max.. which is decent but not exceptional. It's the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM MOS only has like 30 kts max.. which is decent but not exceptional. Is that sustained? I forget as I rarely look at the mos winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Is that sustained? I forget as I rarely look at the mos winds. Yeah. GFS MOS was as high as 35 at JYO last night. I mean, you don't see sustained that high almost ever but I have seen it once or twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 If I remember the definition correctly, a 24mb drop in 24 hours classifies as a "bomb"...or 1 mb per hour. Dropping 9mb in 10 hours is pretty close, though over a shorter (10h) time period. Thanks for answering. That pretty much would have been what I wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hurricane Force Wind Warning just went up for the Chesapeake Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah. GFS MOS was as high as 35 at JYO last night. I mean, you don't see sustained that high almost ever but I have seen it once or twice. Being a statistical model based on the GFS and NAM model parameter relationships to (historical) observations, MOS cannot usually be expected to highlight extreme events because the sample size would not capture a large number of such instances. Essentially, it will trend toward climatology, especially as you go out farther in forecast time. That said, 30-35kt sustained winds is pretty impressive, for a MOS forecast. I wonder what it's got for gusts/max wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks impressive. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks for answering. That pretty much would have been what I wrote. Yeah, sorry to jump in on you like that (looking back, the question was technically directed to you)! But that 1980 Sanders and Gyakum paper on the "bomb" popped into my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will be saving this image... because who knows when we will see it again? 5% to 10% chance DCA/IAD see sustained hurricane force winds per NHC 11am... BWI in 10-20% range http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812_PROB64_F120+gif/152346.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will be saving this image... because who knows when we will see it again? 5% to 10% chance DCA/IAD see sustained hurricane force winds per NHC 11am... BWI in 10-20% range http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812_PROB64_F120+gif/152346.gif Yoda, Hurricane Force Wind Warning in the bay, maybe bay bordering counties could get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hurricane Force Wind Warning just went up for the Chesapeake Bay So they got 75mph Hurricane Force Wind Warnings now for the bay, and the High Wind Warning is only 60mph. Wonder if that will go up in the next update to at least 65 if not 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like through 00Z Monday Tuesday!, the GFS is giving us ~4" rain. Similar landfall to what was indicated before, central NJ-ish. (Yes, I just turned NJ into an adjective there!) EDIT: 00Z Tuesday...gahhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z GFS almost identical to 06z except maybe a tiny bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So they got 75mph Hurricane Force Wind Warnings now for the bay, and the High Wind Warning is only 60mph. Wonder if that will go up in the next update to at least 65 if not 70mph. Offhand, do they still issue "inland" hurricane/tropical storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Offhand, do they still issue "inland" hurricane/tropical storm warnings? Yes, but I believe they only issue those when the system is tropical in nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If I remember the definition correctly, a 24mb drop in 24 hours classifies as a "bomb"...or 1 mb per hour. Dropping 9mb in 10 hours is pretty close, though over a shorter (10h) time period. Rapid intensification has a differen definition.. Think it's 30 in 24 hrs tho that goes back to the whole tropical or not debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z GFS almost identical to 06z except maybe a tiny bit slower. Gives us over 5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes, but I believe they only issue those when the system is tropical in nature Makes sense. Just wasn't sure if there was still argument over how "tropical" this wll be toward landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I95 solidly in 6-7" through 51hrs. Pressure steadily drops through landfall. Rainfall rates look intense. One of the airports seeing a 70+mph gust seems probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 RE: Hurricane Force Wind Warning in the Bay per LWX AFD .MARINE... STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC. MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANCE FORCE WIND WARNING. GUSTS ARE ALREADY NEAR 30 KT...INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. GUSTS 50-60 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 65 KNOTS OVER THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Rapid intensification has a differen definition.. Think it's 30 in 24 hrs tho that goes back to the whole tropical or not debate. Yeah, technically when talking about an extratropical bomb, it's 24mb/24h, and even more technically that is for 60 degrees latitude (so there's usually an adjustment for that). But "rapid intensification" can use an hourly rate over a shorter time frame. The tropical/non-tropical issue of course may complicate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Being a statistical model based on the GFS and NAM model parameter relationships to (historical) observations, MOS cannot usually be expected to highlight extreme events because the sample size would not capture a large number of such instances. Essentially, it will trend toward climatology, especially as you go out farther in forecast time. That said, 30-35kt sustained winds is pretty impressive, for a MOS forecast. I wonder what it's got for gusts/max wind. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Gives us over 5 inches of rain. NAM and GFS now very similar on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jason's latest CWG discussion on the event. There is a modeled forecast of power outages. I think the gusts mentioned for us may be a little high but with so much rain, it probably won't matter that much as the wet ground and wind will result in uprooted trees. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/cause-for-concern-the-7-most-alarming-hurricane-sandy-images/2012/10/28/615bbbfe-210b-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ft lauderdale http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6TgpUMCUAIy98J.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Get the definition talk to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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