stormtracker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The showers may be key in mixing that down. It could be one of those deals where sustained winds aren't strong, but you get these fitfull gusts from nowhere. Answer your texts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think that's probably right though as it approaches and leaves, we'll still get plenty of winds. It also depends on the stability some and the closer we get to the storm and the heavier the showers, the better chance I think of transporting the winds to the surface but.....I'm no expert on it. Looking at the ILM obs yesterday definitely showed the heavy rains in the outer bands brought down the highest winds. They hit 50+mph just to the west with tree damage. Winds are not far off the surface at all so I think it's pretty safe to assume that 80% of 925mb winds can easily make it down during the heavy rain. I'm honestly pretty nervous. I have 8 60+' trees in my backyard that are all within reach of my house...and they are NW of my house. My tulip poplars are the weakest type but they have been topped by the 2009 event but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ANyone know how much rain the euro gave us. The gfs looks like 3-5 while the nam more than 5. Just curious. Wes, Quickly eyeballed the extracted amounts on the ECMWF- Ec is just over 5 at DCA , close to 4 at IAD and about 5.25 in BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looking at the ILM obs yesterday definitely showed the heavy rains in the outer bands brought down the highest winds. They hit 50+mph just to the west with tree damage. Winds are not far off the surface at all so I think it's pretty safe to assume that 80% of 925mb winds can easily make it down during the heavy rain. I'm honestly pretty nervous. I have 8 60+' trees in my backyard that are all within reach of my house...and they are NW of my house. My tulip poplars are the weakest type but they have been topped by the 2009 event but still. I'm in the same boat. My wife was thinking we should go to hotel or sit in a parking lot in our car to ride it out during the worst of it. She's a worrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wes, Quickly eyeballed the extracted amounts on the ECMWF- Ec is just over 5 at DCA , close to 4 at IAD and about 5.25 in BWI. Thanks, I assume that means I'm also over 5. Pretty good consensus on the rains then from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Some of the bands in eastern NC have parked themselves at times with heavy rates. There are going to be localized areas that really get it good. Just like when the bands set up in winter but worse. The totals in western extent would be the hardest to predict. Models never do well with banding structure and western extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z NAM going to be C NJ by the looks of 33... and conditions look to really deteoriate by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z NAM going to be C NJ by the looks of 33... and conditions look to really deteoriate by noon Holy moly QPF. ETA: Through 36 (landfall-ish), 5"+ already knocking on DC's door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks, I assume that means I'm also over 5. Pretty good consensus on the rains then from the models. NHK is 7.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We are getting smoked by the NAM...doubtful there will be a PM rush hour on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z NAM going to be C NJ by the looks of 33... and conditions look to really deteoriate by noon I think that landfall is about the worst for us in terms of rainfall and wind gusts combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looking at the ILM obs yesterday definitely showed the heavy rains in the outer bands brought down the highest winds. They hit 50+mph just to the west with tree damage. Winds are not far off the surface at all so I think it's pretty safe to assume that 80% of 925mb winds can easily make it down during the heavy rain. I'm honestly pretty nervous. I have 8 60+' trees in my backyard that are all within reach of my house...and they are NW of my house. My tulip poplars are the weakest type but they have been topped by the 2009 event but still. We've got an 80-90' beech in our neighbors' yard (to the SE), one of almost the same height on the other side (NW neighbor) and multiple oaks and maples up to 90' scattered 180* from SE to NW. I'm not in the best of locations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 We've got an 80-90' beech in our neighbors' yard (to the SE), one of almost the same height on the other side (NW neighbor) and multiple oaks and maples up to 90' scattered 180* from SE to NW. I'm not in the best of locations! I'm surrounded by large trees especially on the west and north sides so I'm in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think that landfall is about the worst for us in terms of rainfall and wind gusts combined. Over 4" DCA-BWI just by 00Z Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jeebus. NAM qpf is frightening. Sensible weather will certainly be once in a lifetime here. NAM has the storm @ 964mp approaching and then drops it to 960 @ LF. The storm is intensifying as it comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Over 4" DCA-BWI just by 00Z Monday evening. You mean 00Z Tuesday, monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You mean 00Z Tuesday, monday evening. But of course! Yes, was thinking in terms of both "Z" time and local time, sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 5 inches of rain in DCA and BWI and C MD east by midnight Monday as we head into Tuesday morning For Ji: 0c 850 line will cross thrugh us Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I strongly recommend not driving around. I'm pretty much 100% certain someone will be killed by a falling tree while driving around unnecessarily. I almost got my dumb ass killed during the July 2009 storm when a branch came through my roof in my dining room. It stopped less than 6 inches from my head. Sounded like a gunshot and showered me with drywall and insulation. I chose to stand by the glass door to watch while my family was safe in my lower level family room. I've replayed that in my mind literally 1000's of times. I will NEVER put myself in harms way again unless it is absolutely necessary. Wow ! I know what you mean. My neighbor had just got out of bed to go to work when a thunderstorm dropped a tree into his house and crushed his bed ! Now that was one good day to go to work ! No sooner then he pulled out of driveway, he was called back to house to see what and how close he was to being taken out. That pine tree literally split the house in half. Trees are no joke ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM shows 6-7" most of I95 and east. 8"+ on the northern delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm surrounded by large trees especially on the west and north sides so I'm in the same boat. Wes....isn't the deepening to 951 mb rapid in terms of 10 hours down from 960? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM shows 6-7" most of I95 and east. 8"+ on the northern delmarva. About to hop in the shower, big windmaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM shows 6-7" most of I95 and east. 8"+ on the northern delmarva. Build 'yer ark! God, that's a butt-load of precip, and over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Huh, wasn't expecting such a notable shift south overnight. Looks pretty solid in DC for 4-8", 50-70mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 About to hop in the shower, big windmaker? Not much change from previous. The wildcard is the surface. Things are screaming off the surface. That's a lock. It sure looks like a helluva lot of wind here for 12+/- hours. Best wag is most all of us see 60+mph gusts for a time. And then I keep replaying the derecho in my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BGE commercials on radio about calling in outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wes....isn't the deepening to 951 mb rapid in terms of 10 hours down from 960? If I remember the definition correctly, a 24mb drop in 24 hours classifies as a "bomb"...or 1 mb per hour. Dropping 9mb in 10 hours is pretty close, though over a shorter (10h) time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BGE commercials on radio about calling in outages Just had the same here for Potomac Edison power company, it's on the radio now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Huh, wasn't expecting such a notable shift south overnight. Looks pretty solid in DC for 4-8", 50-70mph gusts. Funny, if this were a winter storm, we'd all be ga-ga over 4-8" snow. And here we are talking liquid amounts...just unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks very wet and very windy. Widespread 35-40 dbz. Intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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