J.Mike Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Well 1) That is only showing for 4pm - it probably moves over us later in the period. 2) they are not NHC 1) The graphic runs throughout the night - I stopped the feed to capture a screen shot. 2) It's based on the latest update from the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Mets, does the increase in forward speed put our metro areas at greater risk for higher winds? Less interaction with land before the center is at it's closest to us? I thought I read on another region board that a faster storm would prevent it from making as sharp of a western hook as it is predicted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Dominion outages way up 2000 more in Fairfax bringing it to about 6k in the last 10 minutes. A tree in Burke fell across the feeder line near the substation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM may be the winner in this respect Hot off the press: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 216 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 VAZ025-026-300230- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-121030T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.121029T1816Z-121030T1800Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG 216 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. * WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. EXPECT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A tree in Burke fell across the feeder line near the substation there. I wonder where that is. My power flickered 30 minutes or so ago, but I'm still good (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Blizzard warning expanded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 1) The graphic runs throughout the night - I stopped the feed to capture a screen shot. 2) It's based on the latest update from the NHC. Nothing has changed from the NHC on the forecast. I'm not sure what else you want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Blizzard warning expanded? For above 2000 ft mind you, but yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I thought I read on another region board that a faster storm would prevent it from making as sharp of a western hook as it is predicted to. Let me guess...New England forum? And it's already plowing WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Last few radar frames look like the motion is almost West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let me guess...New England forum? And it's already plowing WNW. Yes, NE forum, but the point was after LF, not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let me guess...New England forum? And it's already plowing WNW. My guess is is keeps chugging until it gets closer to the upper low and is captured and starts becoming vertical, that's when it is likely to slow and almost stall before lifting back out but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Last few radar frames look like the motion is almost West. I was for a rare case watching the Weather Channel, and I have to agree. I usually just use gr, or radarscope, but was checking in on Seidel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My guess is is keeps chugging until it gets closer to the upper low and is captured and starts becoming vertical, that's when it is likely to slow and almost stall before lifting back out but that's just a guess. Thanks, Wes. Your "guesses" generally pan out pretty well. Also, if it's not too dumb a question, can you (or anyone) explain "baroclinic intesification?" I've read that as Sandy goes extra-tropical, that's the deepening that we should expect to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thanks, Wes. Your "guesses" generally pan out pretty well. Also, if it's not too dumb a question, can you (or anyone) explain "baroclinic intesification?" I've read that as Sandy goes extra-tropical, that's the deepening that we should expect to see. I think that has contributed to Sandy's strengthening some already. IN this case approaching trough had a really nice double jet streak structure to enhance upper level divergece along the frontal boundary that was approaching from the west. The trough would have probably formed a noreaster without Candy. Whenever you have strong upper level divergence you are removing mass (air) from the top of the column which helps lower pressure. Negative tilting troughs like this one generally have stronger upper level divergence than other troughs. as tropical system gets closer to the through it increases the temperature gradient along the front and baroclinic zone which strengthens any lifting along it. Add lots of moisture and then you get that latent heating to add fuel to the system. That's a real simplistic answer. Others who have been to school more recently can probably do a better job explaining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My guess is is keeps chugging until it gets closer to the upper low and is captured and starts becoming vertical, that's when it is likely to slow and almost stall before lifting back out but that's just a guess. Agree 100%. This changes very little outside of the very near term IMO. This sucker likely still has a reserved parking space around the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think that has contributed to Sandy's strengthening some already. IN this case approaching trough had a really nice double jet streak structure to enhance upper level divergece along the frontal boundary that was approaching from the west. The trough would have probably formed a noreaster without Candy. Whenever you have strong upper level divergence you are removing mass (air) from the top of the column which helps lower pressure. Negative tilting troughs like this one generally have stronger upper level divergence than other troughs. as tropical system gets closer to the through it increases the temperature gradient along the front and baroclinic zone which strengthens any lifting along it. Add lots of moisture and then you get that latent heating to add fuel to the system. That's a real simplistic answer. Others who have been to school more recently can probably do a better job explaining it. Awesome. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think that has contributed to Sandy's strengthening some already. IN this case approaching trough had a really nice double jet streak structure to enhance upper level divergece along the frontal boundary that was approaching from the west. The trough would have probably formed a noreaster without Candy. Whenever you have strong upper level divergence you are removing mass (air) from the top of the column which helps lower pressure. Negative tilting troughs like this one generally have stronger upper level divergence than other troughs. as tropical system gets closer to the through it increases the temperature gradient along the front and baroclinic zone which strengthens any lifting along it. Add lots of moisture and then you get that latent heating to add fuel to the system. That's a real simplistic answer. Others who have been to school more recently can probably do a better job explaining it. Best post I've read all day.. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 will this storm reach cat 2 or is it done strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sandy is rocketing toward the coast, and will be onshore in a few hours, so unlikely to see strengthening from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 New LWX snow map I'm going to say we see some flakes around here in most of northern virginia tomorrow morning. I will bump this early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Last few radar frames look like the motion is almost West. Radar hallucinations are in progress Haha, but seriously, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 New LWX snow map I'm going to say we see some flakes around here in most of northern virginia tomorrow morning. I will bump this early tomorrow. The surface temps tommorow morning are forecast to be in the upper 30 so it better be preipitation pretty hard. Light precipitation and temps that warm usually don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm looking at the radar and it might just be me but it looks like its slowing a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm looking at the radar and it might just be me but it looks like its slowing a little. As MN said...look at Dover radar...wall of rain and wind now crossing the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 As MN said...look at Dover radar...wall of rain and wind now crossing the bay I am looking at the progress of the eye. Could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm looking at the radar and it might just be me but it looks like its slowing a little. You mean the center, I take it. Maybe slowing a little the last few frames. The big stuff looks to be entering the bay headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 You mean the center, I take it. Maybe slowing a little the last few frames. The big stuff looks to be entering the bay headed our way. Yes, and yes it looks like we should be rockin' here for a while starting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 18z NAM predicts another 3 inches of QPF through tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 18z NAM predicts another 3 inches of QPF through tomorrow morning alot of it with be,ow zero 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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